Bales’ MyBookie Bets
New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard (-175)
The New York Mets are in an elite spot tonight. They get a matchup against Casey Kelly, who has thrown well on the surface with a 1.69 ERA through 10.2 innings this season. He is due for regression, though, as he also sports a 4.46 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA this season. New York has struggled offensively at home this season, but they have been playing at a high level since they have added a few bats, including Jeff McNeil and Austin Jackson. Over the last week, they are averaging 8.3 runs per game. Noah Syndergaard will be taking the mound for the Mets tonight, and while he has not been the Cy Young candidate most were expecting this season, he owns a 3.40 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, and 3.34 SIERA through 17 starts. He also gets an elite matchup against San Francisco, who owns a 41.8% win rate on the road this season.
Bet 2 units on New York Mets -1.5 RL to win 2.6 units (+130)
Clay Buchholz (-215)
Simply put, this is a pitching matchup that is too good to pass on. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels both feature high upside offenses. LA is expected to utilize a lineup without Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani, though, giving a massive edge to Arizona. More importantly, Clay Buchholz will face off against Odrisamer Despaigne in the pitching matchup. Despaigne has proven time and time against that he is not an MLB-level talent, recording a 2-1 record with a 6.29 ERA through 12 games (two starts). Buchholz, on the other hand, has been throwing at an elite level this season, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.47 ERA. He has has also held his opponents to three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts.
Bet 2 units on Arizona -1.5 RL to win 1.9 units (-105)
Jon Gray (-260)
I’m betting heavily on Jon Gray in this situation. His 4.76 ERA does not stick out as impressive, but he also owns an elite 3.08 xFIP with a 3.32 SIERA. Gray is in the midst of positive regression, allowing three or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight games, including four games with one earned run. He has also looked outstanding in three games against the San Diego Padres this season, and the Colorado Rockies feature an offense that can provide him with plenty of run support at home. The Rockies get a great matchup against Jacob Nix, who has struggled with a 6.75 ERA, 5.64 xFIP, and 5.41 SIERA through only two starts. He’s a great prospect, but simply may not be ready for the Majors, specifically an offense like the Rockies in Colorado. They have a significant edge in both pitching and offense in this matchup, making them one of the safer picks on the slate.
Bet 4 units on Colorado -1.5 RL to win 3.1 units (-130)
Parlay 2 units on Philadelphia ML, Colorado ML, New York Yankees ML, Chicago Cubs ML, and Arizona ML to win 19.5 units (+976)