Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros featured one of the top offenses in the MLB in 2018, ranking sixth in the league in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and seventh in team batting average and OPS. They were at their best away from home, where they hit .262 with a .446 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS. They also averaged 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Astros are currently -166 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Houston gets a matchup against Drew Smyly, who hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2016. In that season, he posted a 7-12 record with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He also allowed a 1.6 HR/9, while recording an 8.6 K/9. In his last full MLB season, Smyly struggled against mostly anyone. He allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .256 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA, while lefties boasted a .245/.449/.305 line. He also spent nearly half of his innings in the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher friendly stadium. He’ll now be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and Houston should have no issues finding success in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2018 season, as they ended the year ranked 17th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They were better in Toronto, though, where they posted a .248 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS. The Blue Jays also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game at home last season. They are -174 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs tonight.
The Blue Jays get a matchup against David Hess, who struggled throughout the 2018 season. He ended the year with a 3-10 record, 4.88 ERA, and 1.38 WHIP. He also allowed a 1.9 HR/9 with a 6.5 K/9 over 103.1 innings. Hess is another pitcher that struggled against everyone last season, but for different reasons. Right-handed batters hit for a .270 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. Lefties, on the other hand, posted a .249 average with a .512 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. Essentially, righties have been more consistent, while lefties have found more power against Hess. Toronto will likely be a chalky stack tonight, but there are plenty of reasons to use at least a few players on this slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels weren’t the most consistent offense in the MLB in 2018, but they still finished the season ranked 15th in the league in runs scored, seventh in home runs, 20th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. They were a better team on the road, where they hit .246 with a .408 slugging percentage and a .722 OPS. The Angels also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game away from home last season. Tonight, they are -109 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.7 runs.
Felix Hernandez will be taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He struggled through the 2018 season, posting an 8-14 record with a 5.55 ERa and a 1.40 WHIP. He also allowed a 1.6 HR/9, while recording only a 7.2 K/9 over 29 games (28 starts). Similarly to the other two pitchers we’re attacking tonight, Hernandez struggled against everyone last season. He allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .268 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. Lefties also found success, posting a .247 average with a .510 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. The Angels have yet to truly display their power this season, and they could find success in this matchup tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez only saw limited at-bats last season, but he posted a .389 average with an .815 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. He also recorded 0.351 wOBA and 0.378 ISO differentials against righties. Tonight, he gets an elite matchup in a hitter friendly stadium, as well.
Mark Canha
Canha has dominated left-handed pitching, and he owns 0.082 wOBA and 0.186 ISO differentials against lefties. He also posted a .282 average with a .604 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching last season. This isn’t an elite matchup, but Canha’s splits against lefties jump off of the page.
Kris Bryant
Bryant is another player that dominates left-handed pitching, and he’s hitting second in the Chicago Cubs lineup, which could offer him an extra at-bat tonight. He also posted a .372 average with a .721 slugging percentage against lefties last season. Furthermore, Bryant enters this game with 0.098 wOBA and 0.157 ISO differentials against lefties.
Justin Bour
I like Felix Hernandez to give up a couple home runs tonight, and Bour owns 0.084 wOBA and 0.15 ISO differentials against lefties. Bour also owns 76 of his career 84 home runs against right-handed pitching. He’s a powerful option, who gets an elite matchup tonight.
Justin Smoak
Smoak is another Toronto player, who is at his best against right-handed pitching. Last season, he hit .245 with a .501 slugging percentage against righties. He also posted 0.073 wOBA and 0.133 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. As mentioned above, this is a plus matchup in a hitter friendly stadium, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Ryan Yarbrough
This is a weak slate of pitchers, but Ryan Yarbrough makes sense. He isn’t going to draw the start, but he’ll work as the Tampa Bay Rays primary pitcher out of the bullpen, setting him up nicely for a potential win. Last season, he posted a 16-6 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He also held his opponents to a 1.1 HR/9, while posting a 7.8 K/9. The Rays are also -159 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving their opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs tonight.
Yarbrough gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who rank as a below average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat on this slate, but also rank second best in team wOBA. With that being said, they’ll be playing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB, and we have seen them struggle outside of Coors before. Surprisingly, Yarbrough was at his best against left-handed batters in 2018, holding them to a .200 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .286 wOBA. He could potentially throw five innings, which may be all he needs for this price tag. There aren’t any truly safe options on this slate, making a cheap pitcher like Yarbrough that much more enticing.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez enjoyed a relatively strong 2018 season for a catcher, hitting .275 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS. He was also at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.11 wOBA and 0.141 ISO differentials against righties. Narvaez has also flashed solid power this season, hitting two home runs through only 18 at-bats this far.
He gets a matchup against Chris Stratton, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA last season. Narvaez is hitting sixth in the Seattle Mariners, which is relatively high for a cheap catcher. He’s an outstanding option on this slate.
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