Welcome to our MLB DFS Building Blocks, DraftKings and FanDuel picks for 4/19/22! In this article, I’ll break down by top overall plays for today’s main slate. Last year was an extremely big year for the Karma team in MLB, and we are looking to continue that success in 2022. I will be providing Core Plays for every main slate (and day baseball) this season — you can gain access to that as well as our premium discord here. You can also try out the Core Plays package with a $5 daily pass. Let’s get to the plays…
Hello all and Happy 4/20 to those that celebrate! I talked at length about Rodon’s increased slider usage before his last start against the Guardians, and he responded with another monster fantasy outing. He is once again the top option on his slate, with basically no other pitcher owning a ceiling in the same ballpark as him. The Mets hit sliders much better than Cleveland does, however, this is literally one of the best pitchers in baseball on a watered down pitching slate. His 35% strikeout rate over the last two seasons is unparalleled, and I’m not going to put too much stock into the Mets lineup. It’s a smaller slate with little options, Rodon is the best pitcher on the board and I’m just going to play him.
We have a legitimate conversation between Chris Bassitt and Logan Gilbert for SP2 — and it becomes a very tough decision when we factor in that they’re both above $9,000 on DK. Typically we have some semblance of pitching ability in the mid to low-tiers, but that just isn’t the case on Wednesday. I want to avoid those ranges at all costs, especially with how bad most teams offenses have been to begin the season…I just don’t see a reason to prioritize spending down outside of large field tournaments. Now, when deciding between Bassitt and Gilbert the deciding factor will always be strikeouts. If we isolate their numbers to the beginning of last season, they both sport 25% strikeout rates. So, no clear edge there. They also have pretty similar match-ups as well. Texas was a must attack offense last season, but not now with the moves they made in the off-season. Both offenses are pretty solid, but there is a big discrepancy in K%. San Francisco strikes out 26% of the time vs right-handed pitching compared to a 21% rate for the Rangers. Advantage, Bassitt? Gilbert has looked great this season and was a top prospect a year ago, while Bassitt is typically better in real-life compared to fantasy. That being said, I like to stack pitchers in positive pitching environments and will likely be pairing Bassitt with Rodon tonight. I wouldn’t argue anyone using Gilbert, but I think that in cash games or single entry you have to double spend on this slate.
I don’t want to write up any of these cheaper pitchers tonight because it’s extremely unlikely that I use any of them. Gun to my head and I had to pick one it would be Daniel Lynch, and that’s because this is a guy that has pedigree from the minor leagues and I’ve seen strikeout stuff from him despite MLB struggles. Chris Paddack has really fallen off, and his fastball velocity looks down to begin the season. Lynch is fine in large field stuff, but I want two of the big three arms on Wednesday night personally.
Well, what a letdown that pitching section was. I only write up two or three options and they’re both over $9,000? What the heck! Anyways, with double-spending being the go-to move tonight I’m going to need some cheaper, lower-owned bats. Let’s start with Christian Walker. Walker has looked really good at the plate to begin 2022 — with an average exit velocity of 93 mph and a massive .656 expected slugging percentage. He actually has been better in his career righty on righty, and Erick Fedde allows power to both sides of the plate. When choosing a cheap one-off like this I always prioritize power potential over all else, and that is something Walker brings to the table. He has the highest hard-contact and fly-ball rate vs RHP on this team this season, and clearly is seeing the ball well right now.
Suarez is another player that’s been smoking the ball this season, which is something I factor in a ton early season. He’s fifth in all of baseball in barrels per plate appearance (12.2) and that comes with a huge .673 expected slugging percentage. We know he has slate-breaking power — and his .274 ISO vs RHP over the last two seasons is second in the Mariners lineup behind only Jesse Winker. He also matches up well with Dane Dunning, a pitcher that relies heavily on ground balls to get outs. Suarez has the highest fly-ball rate vs RHP on this team (48%) which should counteract the ground ball ability of Dunning. All-in-all, I like that I’ve seen from Suarez at the plate so far and he is a lock to come in low-owned tonight.
Rodon and Bassitt each fire seven shutout innings!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)