Welcome to our MLB DFS Building Blocks, DraftKings and FanDuel picks for 4/21/22! In this article, I’ll break down by top overall plays for today’s main slate. Last year was an extremely big year for the Karma team in MLB, and we are looking to continue that success in 2022. I will be providing Core Plays for every main slate (and day baseball) this season — you can gain access to that as well as our premium discord here. You can also try out the Core Plays package with a $5 daily pass. Let’s get to the plays…
Cease fully broke out for the White Sox last season, and he’s been even better through two starts in 2022 striking out nearly 40% of the batter he’s faced. He, much like his former teammate Carlos Rodon, wins with a dominant slider that generates a whiff rate over 50%. If you read my articles often you know I love to pick on this Guardians offense with sliders. They have just two batters in the projected lineup that own a wOBA over .280 vs the pitch, and they have seemingly no power vs right-handed pitching as well. This offense absolutely popped off vs Dallas Keuchel yesterday, but I just don’t see them mustering much in this spot. Cease is priced alongside Carlos Carrasco on Thursday, but I think he is the clear number one option.
There is pretty much nothing to like in the mid-tier today, so instead of going for another expensive option in Carrasco I will drop down to the low-$9K tier with Joe Ryan. Ryan is a promising young arm for the Twins, who has shown pretty good strikeout ability at all levels. His strikeout rate is up to 27% this season, and I think this is a winnable match-up with the Kansas City Royals. For starters, Ryan’s biggest issue is vs left-handed batters and he’s projected to see just four of them in the lineup today. Kansas City has also been pretty cold to start the year, their projected lineup owns a combined .270 wOBA…not good! Things can always get sketchy vs this team if they get on base and start running, but I think Ryan has potential and he’s projecting for almost single digit ownership today. I like him as a tournament pivot, but can also be used as an SP2 on DraftKings.
Montgomery is projected for over 40% ownership on DraftKings today due to his very nice $6,900 price tag and match-up with the Detroit Tigers. It’s certainly a good match-up, the projected Tigers lineup owns a combined 26% strikeout rate vs left-handed pitching, a number that jumps to almost 30% when you isolate just this season. I don’t think JoMo is more than an average pitcher, but we just don’t have a ton of options today. If you don’t want to jam in two expensive pitchers, he is probably the best play due to his price. I probably wouldn’t be playing him in tournaments at this ownership, but he is acceptable in cash game formats.
I feel like I’ve written up Judge everyday this season, and I’m not going to stop now. All of his advanced numbers look fine, the statcast data looks great, he’s simply been getting pretty unlucky. He’s also due for some wOBA regression as well — his expected wOBA sits at almost .400 this season despite the .332 mark he is showing through two weeks of action. Pineda has always allowed above-average power to both sides of the plate — and there’s a good chance he’s rusty today with this being his first big league start of 2022. He throws a ton of fastballs which is good news for Judge, who is a dominant fastball hitter. This is a great spot for the Yankees top to bottom and Judge is my number one bat on Thursday afternoon.
I also think it’s a great spot for the White Sox against Zach Plesac. One thing I noticed in Plesac’s first few starts is that he’s been getting hit extremely hard but surviving without a blowup game. This season, his barrel rate is up 5% and his hard-hit% is up over 6%. He’s clearly not been fooling hitters as much as he did in 2021, and this is a good match-up for the White Sox power hitters. Sheets fits that mold sporting the highest ISO on the team vs right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Plesac goes to his changeup a lot vs lefties, which is one of Sheets best pitches. I love the White Sox as a GPP stack on Thursday and Sheets can be used as a one-off as well at his price.
The White Sox tag Plesac for three home runs!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)