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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have featured an above average offense through 24 games, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 19th in home runs, 13th in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. They were a slightly worse offense on the road in 2018, but they still posted a .255 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS away from. Chicago also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game on the road in 2018. The Cubs are -118 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 5.2 runs.
Chicago gets a matchup against Zack Godley, who has struggled early this season. Through five games, he owns a 1-1 record with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.44 xFIP and a 5.35 SIERA this season. He has allowed a 36.9% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has limited his opponents to a 12.9% HR/FB rate, as well. His strikeout rate is also down significantly this season, as it sits at only 17.6%. His swinging strike rate is also down slightly to 10.6% in 2019. Godley has been nearly identical against right- and left-handed batters throughout his career. He has allowed lefties to hit for a .251 average with a .390 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA, while righties have posted a .251/.412/.316 line against him. In limited innings this season, Godley has been a significantly worse option against left-handed batters, though. The Cubs aren’t an offense that will blow you away with home runs, but they come with quite power, and should have no problems finding success in a plus matchup tonight. Chicago features an offense that can be stacked in all leagues on this smaller slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have featured a consistent option in 2019. They rank third in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, second in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. The Diamondbacks offense was at its best at home, where they posted a .242 average with a .398 slugging percentage and a .719 OPS. They also averaged 4.4 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. Arizona is currently a +109 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, but they still feature the second highest implied run total on this smaller slate at 4.9 runs.
The Diamondbacks get one of the best matchups on the slate against Yu Darvish. He has struggled through five starts, posting a 1-3 record with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. He also owns a 5.14 xFIP and a 5.45 SIERA, suggesting his struggles will continue throughout the season. Darvish has held his opponents to a 32.8% fly ball rate this season, but he has allowed a ridiculous 31.6% HR/FB rate in 2019. His strikeout rate is down to only 23.8%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 12.4% this season. While he could see positive regression in terms of strikeouts and home runs, he should continue to struggle overall. He has been a worse pitcher against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .235 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .309 wOBA. Keep in mind, Darvish used to be an elite pitcher, and he has allowed significantly higher statistics, although the sample size is small in recent years because of injuries. Arizona features a high upside offense, and they quietly make an elite stacking option as an underdog in this game tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Corey Seager
Seager is a player that has found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, entering this game with 0.113 wOBA and 0.225 ISO differentials against righties. He has also been playing at a high level recently, posting 40% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier is hitting .406 with four home runs over his last 10 games. He has also recorded 53% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Dozier is also a reverse splits hitter, posting 0.042 wOBA and 0.147 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun is leading off for the Los Angeles Angels, and he brings 0.023 wOBA and 0.103 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has posted a home run in each of his last three games. Calhoun also owns 55% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Mike Foltynewicz
Foltynewicz will be making him MLB debut tonight. He looked outstanding through 31 starts in 2018, posting a 13-10 record with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He was a bit lucky, recording a 3.77 xFIP and a 3.77 SIERA in 2018. Last season, Foltynewicz allowed a 38.4% fly ball rates, while holding his opponents to a low 9.6% HR/FB rate. He also posted a career-high 27.2% strikeout rate, while also posting a 10.3% swinging strike rate in 2018. Foltynewicz is a -117 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.2 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled on the road this season. They rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. He was at his best against right-handed batters in 2018, holding them to a .208 average with a .312 slugging percentage and a .255 wOBA. He also held lefties to a .183/.336/.274 line last season. Foltynewicz comes with a bit of risk because this is his first start of the season, but he’s a great option in tournaments on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
A.J. Pollock
Pollock has been struggling quite a bit recently, as he’s hitting only .188 with a .344 slugging percentage and a .631 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that span, as well. Pollock does own 40% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He enters this game with 0.021 wOBA and 0.033 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Pollock gets a matchup against Joe Musgrove, who has found quite a bit of success this season. He has held his opponents to 35.1% fly ball and 3.8% HR/FB rates, while also posted a 24.3% strikeout rate. Musgrove has struggled at times against right-handed batters in his career, though, allowing them to hit for a .244 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. Pollock is expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles lineup, and he comes with quite a bit of upside in this matchup.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
