Welcome to our MLB DFS Building Blocks, DraftKings and FanDuel picks for 4/28/22! In this article, I’ll break down by top overall plays for today’s main slate. Last year was an extremely big year for the Karma team in MLB, and we are looking to continue that success in 2022. I will be providing Core Plays for every main slate (and day baseball) this season — you can gain access to that as well as our premium discord here. You can also try out the Core Plays package with a $5 daily pass. Let’s get to the plays…
I was hesitant to believe that Nestor Cortes was legitimate, and while he isn’t going to continue to strike out 45% of batters I do think he is a better pitcher than he was in 2021. A big reason for that is the improvement of the cutter he is throwing — a pitch that is generating a 30% whiff rate and is allowing just a .112 wOBA. Kansas City doesn’t have a ton of high strike out bats in their projected lineup, but they also just aren’t a good offense right now. Their lineup owns a combined .286 wOBA against southpaw pitching since the start of last season. They also struggle with cutters outside of Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier, which is good news for Cortes. I don’t think he’s a must play tonight, but he is the top overall option for me.
Part of the reason that Cortes isn’t a must play is because guys like Aaron Nola feel underpriced on DraftKings. He has rebounded from an unlucky 2021 and looks like his usual star-level pitcher with 29% strikeouts and over 55% ground balls as well. He has a tougher match-up against the New York Mets, but I always lean towards the pitcher when it comes down to it. I’m not a huge BvP guy, but we have a near 300 PA sample-size of Nola against this Mets roster resulting in 29% strikeouts for him. His raw ceiling is as high as anyone on this slate, and the match-up is more than baked into his price tag. I’m pretty secure at SP2 with our next option — so it will come down to Cortes vs Nola for my SP1 on Friday.
Montas is another example of someone that’s underpriced, and he is a lock to be my SP2 tonight on DK. There’s not a ton to dive in here match-up wise — the Guardians continue to be a team I’m wiling to attack with pitchers especially ones that can get swing and misses with their sliders. I would still be interested in a tough match-up at this price, however, I’m not sure what the algorithm is doing here. Over the last two seasons he’s striking out 27% of the batters he’s faced and the advanced numbers look just as strong across the board in 2022. He’s my top point per dollar play tonight and I like him even as chalk.
I write Aaron Judge up in this section more than I should, but he is once again my top bat on the slate. We’ve discussed at length about playing him when he’s seeing the ball well and that’s clearly what’s happening now with another homer on Thursday. Kris Bubic is the exact type of player we like Judge against, as well. A left-handed pitcher that pumps fast balls and allows a ton of hard-contact to right-handed batters. Over the last few seasons he’s throwing his heater 50% of the time to righties — and we know Judge is an elite fastball hitter. He will be high-owned, but is in play for me as a one-off or in a stack tonight.
We always have tons of value on these bigger slates making it easy to spend up for pitching. One of the top value plays early on Friday is Chas McCormick against Yusei Kikuchi. Over the last two seasons, Kikuchi has really struggled with right-handed batters allowing a .358 wOBA. The bad news is that he’s been even worse through his first few starts this season, and the numbers as a whole look pretty alarming. McCormick is one of the better hitters on this team vs left-handed pitching and he’s cut down on his ground balls this season. He matches up well with Kikuchi’s pitch mix, and I think he is super cheap for someone projected to lead-off tonight. He’s a strong play in all formats.
No offense scores more than 6 runs tonight!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)