Pitchers
Luis Castillo- Many will be spending up on Justin Verlander tonight, which is a great play don’t get me wrong, but my top overall pitcher on this slate especially with the few hundred dollars in savings is Luis Castillo. Castillo has reached a new level this season for the Reds, building off a string second half in 2018 and putting up a more than respectable 3.51 SIERA with 30.3% strikeouts. A big reason for this breakout has been his changeup, which very well might be the best changeup in baseball right now. Castillo has generated 68 swinging strikes with that pitch this season, more than 10 more than any other pitcher in the league. The Giants not only are one of the worst overall offenses altogether, but they are also the worst offense against changeups. Only Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria feature xwOBA’s over .300 against the pitch, and that mixed with the extremely positive pitching environment in San Francisco is what sets Castillo apart from the pack for me on Friday night.
Tyler (CYler) Glasnow- Glasnow is another pitcher who has taken a huge leap forward in 2019, mainly given that he has been able to cut his walks down to under 5.0% while still maintaining above average strikeouts (28.8%) and ground balls (51.4%). I 100% believe in the changes Glasnow has made, at a towering 6’8 inches tall with a wiry frame, it simply may have taken Glasnow a few years to adapt to his body and delivery, which could of inflated his control issues. The Yankees are only striking out at a 21.7% clip to righties this season, but this is still a watered down lineup missing guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar. Another positive is the game will take place at home for Glasnow in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, where he owns a 3.38 xFIP with 29.0% strikeouts during his time with the Rays. I will ultimately lean towards Castillo as my favorite overall play, but Glasnow is my top tournament pivot on a loaded slate.
Zack Wheeler- Wheeler is the clear cut SP2 for me on DraftKings tonight, even at over $9,000, and with the savings he provides on FanDuel I could see locking him in for cash games as long as the weather holds up. Wheeler has not been as good as either of Castillo or Glasnow this season, but his 25.8% strikeouts and 10.4% swinging strikes are respectable marks, especially when you factor in his matchup with the Miami Marlins. It’s no secret that this Marlins offense is horrible, and they come into tonight with the second-most strikeouts in the MLB against right-handed pitchers this season (26.8%) along with the lowest wRC+ (66).
Note: Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is another pitcher that has made some changes to his pitch mix this season, more curveballs, and has seen positive results. He also has a solid matchup with the Detroit Tigers who strike out the fifth-most in the league against righties and own the third-lowest ISO as a team (.139). I think he will be a bit over-owned for a big slate, but I don’t think he’s a bad play and wouldn’t blame anyone for playing him. Given the aforementioned three pitchers + the guys listed below in my tourney pool, I will be underweight on him, but should the weather get sketchy for Wheeler he could see a bump up in my rankings.
Tournament Pitcher Pool: Justin Verlander, German Marquez, Pablo Lopez
Building Blocks
Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout- These two are the nut plays tonight in my opinion against Dan Straily. The Red Sox are in an extremely good spot, along with the Rockies and even the Astros…but if I’m spending up on anyone in cash games tonight it’s going to be for these two. Straily is arguably the worst pitcher in the MLB right now, he’s allowing over 50.0% fly balls this season, and both of these guys feature massive power and positive splits against Straily’s most used pitches.
Jason Kipnis- Does Jason Kipnis suck? The answer to that question us undoubtedly yes. But, he’s extremely cheap on all sites, he’s going to bat second in the Indians order tonight, and he’s up against Frankie Montas who is allowing almost 37.0% hard-contact and fly balls to left-handed batters this season. Montas also throws his sinker over 50.0% of the time to southpaw batters, a pitch that Kipnis owns a .445 xwOBA against.
Note: I also want to include both of Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter as building blocks, but to be less redundant you can read why below in the Stacks section!
Stacks
1. Rockies- It’s pretty weird that on a Coors slate, I don’t envision them being overly chalky, and that’s why they take the top spot in this section. They get a date with Eric Lauer, who is allowing over 42.0% hard-contact and fly balls to right-handed batters this season, and also isn’t making guys miss with only 8.0% swinging strikes. I’ll be loading up on the righties here and making Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story absolute priorities on my main tourney team.
2. Dodgers- Anibal Sanchez has been someone I have attacked all season, and that won’t change tonight as he matches up with the Dodgers on the road in a late night hammer spot. Sanchez is walking almost 13.0% of batters this season, and while he has still been able to manage contact (only 27.0% hard hits), his ground balls have vanished and now sit at only 30.6% after nearing 46.0% last season. The Dodgers have plenty of batters that can hit the ball hard and in the air, especially against righties, and I will be rolling with Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo and Corey Seager tonight. I don’t hate throwing Justin Turner in over someone like Seager or Verdugo, but they’ve finally corrected his price so I’ll probably stick with the cheaper lefties.
3. Cardinals- Trevor Williams appears like an okay pitcher on the surface, but when you dig in and see that he is allowing 42.5% hard-contact and almost 41.0% fly balls to right-handed batters this season, you start to see why this could be a disaster spot for him against a good, right-handed heavy Cardinals lineup. Paul Goldschmidt and the left-handed Matt Carpenter both sit at under $4K on DraftKings…for whatever reason…and are locks for me alongside the likes of Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna and Paul DeJong in a five man stack.
Note: There are some weather concerns in Baltimore as well, but it looks like even if it’s delayed they should be able to get the game in. This is important because I firmly believe the Angels are the top offensive spot of the night against Dan Straily and a horrid Baltimore bullpen in humid weather.
Chalk Stacks: Angels, Red Sox
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
