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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB this season. Through 56 games, they rank second in the league in runs scored, seventh in home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS. Los Angeles was better on the road last season, but they still posted a .242 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS at home in 2018. They also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Dodgers are -266 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.4 runs.
Los Angeles gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas, who has struggled through eight games (seven starts) this season. He has posted a 1-2 record to go along with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in those games. His struggles are also confirmed with a 5.81 xFIP and a 5.51 SIERA this season. Vargas has struggled with a 43.5% fly ball rate, as well, although he has held his opponents to a reasonable 12.5% HR/FB rate. He enters this game with a 49% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.8% soft hit rate in 2019. Furthermore, Vargas has struggled with 17% strikeout rate and 7.5% swinging strike rates this season. He was at his worst against right-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA. He also allowed his opponents to post a .299/.561/.394 line on the road last season. In limited innings in 2019, Vargas has struggled more against left-handed batters, though, and his inability to consistently contain his opponents power will be his downfall in this particular matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are another team that has featured one of the top offenses in the league this season. They rank third in the MLB in team runs, 10th in home runs, 12th in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 53 games. The Rangers were at their best at home, where they recorded a .256 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS in 2018. They also averaged 5.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Texas is currently a -148 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The Rangers get a plus matchup against Jakob Junis tonight. He has struggled through 11 starts, posting a 3-5 record with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.58 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA in those games. Junis has also held his opponents to a 32.5% fly ball rate with a 16.1% HR/FB rate this season. With that being said, he has allowed a 42.2% hard hit rate, while posting only a 13% soft hit rate in 2019. Junis has also recorded 19.9% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates this season. In 2018, he struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .278 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He also struggled against righties, though, allowing them to hit for a .251/.460/.324 line last season. That has been the case this season, as well, and Texas should have no issues finding success in this matchup. They’re likely to be somewhat of a “chalky” stack, as well, but I slightly prefer Los Angeles in cash games.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, as he brings 0.082 wOBA and 0.158 ISO differentials against righties into this game. He has also caught fire recently, as he owns 41% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Jason Castro
Castro owns a ridiculous 36.8% home run rate through 27 games this season. He has also been playing well recently, posting 57% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He enters this game with a 0.333 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, as well.
Gleyber Torres
Torres has posted 6 home over his last 10 games, and he’ll be playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. He also possesses 0.007 wOBA and 0.109 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Torres owns 50% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He also brings a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.64 SIERA into this game. With that being said, he has held his opponents to a 32.6% fly ball rate to go along with an elite 3.4% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 37.8% hard hit rate, while posting a 17.2% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate is down a bit to 18.4%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 10.7%. He’s a +118 underdog in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Musgrove gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank in the bottom half of the slate in team wOBA. In 2018, Musgrove was at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .233 average with a .343 slugging percentage and a .267 wOBA. That has been the case throughout his career, and Milwaukee is a team that has struggled at times on the road. Musgrove isn’t safe by any means, but this isn’t a slate that is elite for cash games regardless.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kike Hernandez
Hernandez has been ice cold recently, as he’s hitting .176 with a .265 slugging percentage and a .528 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one home run and six RBIs over that span, as well. Hernandez has posted 37% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He’ll be playing in Los Angeles tonight, though, where he’s hitting .259 with a .481 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS on the season. He also brings 0.05 wOBA and 0.003 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Hernandez gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to slide into the leadoff spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers, adding to his value tonight. His price tag is a bit low because of his recent struggles, and we can take advantage of that tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
