Pitchers
Caleb Smith- We have a weird pitching pool for it being a 13 game main slate, but it’s no surprise to most of you that I’m leading off with Caleb Smith. I fully expect Noah Syndergaard and Jon Lester to be the chalk SP options tonight, and while I think they are fine plays, not at the ownership that I’m expecting them to see. Smith has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season thus far, totaling 33.6% strikeouts and over 16.0% swinging strikes. It’s another cold day in Chicago with wind blowing in, so we have great pitching weather backing him as well against a tough Cubs offense. I don’t see how his upside is any lower than Syndergaard’s at this point, and I know it’s higher than Lester, so I’ll be taking a stand once again here and be overweight on Smith, just like I was during his last start against Cleveland.
Griffin Canning (DK SP2)- Now that I know I’m locking in Caleb Smith, I think I have two choices as my SP2 on DraftKings — Griffin Canning in the mid-tier against Detroit, or spending down even more for Jalen Beeks against the Diamondbacks. Canning lasted 4.1 innings in his major league debut, but he also struck out six Blue Jays and generated a whopping 22.0% swinging strikes. Obviously that number will come down, but it shows that he does have good stuff and the Tigers come into tonight with the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. I don’t think we can bank on much more than 85 or so pitches from him, but the matchup and strikeout upside is clearly evident.
Jalen Beeks (DK SP2)- Beeks is expected to be the long man for the Rays tonight, and he’s coming off two huge games against the Royals in which he struck out 13 across 11 innings of shutout baseball. He also has good swing and miss ability, and there is a bump up in the matchup with this game taking place in the pitcher-friendly confides of Tropicana Field. Now, Beeks is no Blake Snell, but it’s important to note that the reigning Cy Young Award winner hurled 6 shutout innings punching out 9 last night despite the Diamondbacks strong metrics against left-handed pitching. I would like some confirmation that he is in fact the long man, he’s so cheap that I may be willing to risk it tonight in all formats.
Tournament Pitcher Pool: Jose Berrios, Cal Quantrill
Note: I’ll be UNDERWEIGHT on Noah Syndergaard and Jon Lester at expected high ownership.
Building Blocks
Joey Votto- Votto comes into tonight hilariously cheap on DraftKings, at just $3,500! He matches up with Mike Fiers, yes the same Mike Fiers that allowed 39.1% hard hits and 43.0% fly balls last season. Votto hasn’t gotten off to a huge start, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and in the air, and is due for positive regression in the BABIP department. He’s just too cheap, and even with this being in a pitcher’s park, I’m willing to roll him out in cash games for the savings.
Travis Shaw- I really don’t like writing this up against Stephen Strasburg on a 13 game slate, but hear me out. For starters, he’s only $2,900 on DraftKings…you know, the same price as Steve Wilkerson. Second, he’s making hard-contact 38.0% of the time, with 46.2% fly balls this season…so, s he really worth that price tag? He’s at home, in a hitters park, and allows you to either spend up on two pitchers, or load up on Boston bats in cash games.
Stacks
1. Twins- The Twins absolutely hammered Marcus Stroman last night, tagging him for five runs and putting up three more on a bad Blue Jays bullpen. Tonight they get Aaron Sanchez, who for the most part, profiles as a poor man’s Stroman. He also has nowhere near the control of Stroman, and one inning can be the money maker against him if he starts walking guys. I normally don’t go out of the way to make my top overall stack against Sanchez, given he does have the ability to get ground balls, but this Twins offense is legit in my opinion and it’s packed with guys that can get the ball up in the air against him. I would start with Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler as the core of my stack, and you can fill-in with guys like Jorge Polanco or Mitch Garver (DK) as a catcher option.
2. Nationals- Freddy Peralta is expected to come in after the opener tonight, and all this really does is lower the overall ownership of the Nationals, because I do think people are starting to catch on about picking on Peralta. Anyone that has read my content knows I love to stack against Peralta, he throws mainly one pitch, a “meh” fast ball, and he simply can’t survive multiple times through an order. This is a banged up Nats team, but they are expected to get Anthony Rendon back tonight and I would start with him, along with Victor Robles and Adam Eaton filling in with a cheaper option like Brian Dozier.
3. Reds- I like both sides of this game, and I don’t see it featuring much ownership with it taking place in Oakland instead of Cincinnati. I originally was going to write up the A’s, but the Reds prices are so cheap that I feel inclined to talk about them. Normally, Mike Fiers is someone most people look to attack on normal slates, but given the ballpark and the amount of games it’s going overlooked. All of Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Yasiel Puig are under $4,100 on DraftKings and I think that’s a great place to start without even including the likes of Derek “Babe Ruth” Dietrich and newcomer Nick Senzel.
Chalk Stacks: Red Sox, Astros, Coors?
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
