Pitchers
Kenta Maeda- Tonight is a really weird night for it being 12 games, it definitely looks like a night where I will emphasis spending down at pitching. If you choose to spend up in cash games, however, the one name I have some interest in is Kenta Maeda against the San Francisco Giants. Maeda had an extremely rough start to the season, but he’s turned things around over the last month pitching to a 3.80 SIERA with 26% strikeouts and only 5% walks. The big concern with Maeda is he rarely tops 90 pitches, but in a matchup with the Giants that still could get him six innings and there are really no true “safe pitchers” on this slate. If I had to label one as safe, it would be Maeda, which is why he checks in at the top for cash games for me, but not necessarily a must play.
Danny Duffy- What would you think if I told you that Danny Duffy is my favorite pitcher on this slate? Because, well…he is. Duffy is a guy that get strikeouts in matchups where strikeouts are common to find, he’s posted K totals of 7, 6. 6, 6 in matchups with the Tigers, Rangers and Rays this season (all K-happy teams vs LHP) and he gets another strikeout prone lineup tonight in the Seattle Mariners, who just lost Edwin Encarnacion in a trade as well. The Mariners have struck out the fifth-most in the MLB this season against southpaws, and on a slate where we want to prioritize offense, I don’t mind taking the extreme savings with Duffy in a matchup that has upside and is also one that he can exploit.
Tommy Milone- You probably think I’m trolling at this point, but I’m not, with Milone at a punt price tag tonight, he is firmly on my radar in all formats on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Milone has a matchup, similar to Duffy, that is extremely exploitable for a left-handed pitcher. He faces off with the Kansas City Royals tonight, who are striking out 25% of the time against southpaws with the fourth-lowest wRC+ (72). Milone has never been a hige strikeout pitcher, but he’s clocking in with a 25% strikeout rate this season backed by a 10% swinging strike rate. He seems to be focusing more on strikeouts and limiting contact, which is perfectly fine with me in DFS, especially at his price, and he has significantly higher strikeout upside, in just as good of a matchup, as Miles Mikolas, who is expected to be arguably the highest-owned pitcher on this slate. I’m going to take a stand and roll with Duffy/Milone over Mikolas tonight, and I will be using them together to fit in whatever bats I want on DraftKings.
Tournament Pool: Luis Castillo, Danny Duffy, Tommy Milone
Building Blocks
Angels in the Outfield (and maybe Justin Bour?)- The Angels are setting up to be massive chalk tonight on all sites, and rightfully so against Edwin Jackson. Jackson has been a disaster for the Blue Jays…as expected, and is allowing over a .500 ISO with 40% hard hits and fly balls to right-handed batters. This means that Mike Trout is the top play overall on this slate, and with Justin Upton returning from the injured list at a discounted price, he slides in right next to Shohei Ohtani as a top cash game target after Trout. Justin Bour has been mashing since being recalled from the minor leagues, and he is another Angel we can consider, along with Tommy La Stella in cash games, if he cracks the lineup. I hate when everyone in the world is on the same team for cash games in a sport like baseball where ANYTHING can happen, but I have to 100% justify it tonight and I will be starting my builds here.
Jason Kipnis- I don’t really love this play, but I love the price, and I feel like mixing our cheaper pitching options with Kipnis unlocks the Angels + whatever else you want to do on all sites tonight. Lance Lynn has been surprisingly good for the Texas Rangers this season, but if you are looking to attack him, it has to be with left-handed batters. Lynn has pitched to a 4.73 xFIP with 20% strikeouts against left-handed batters this season compared to a 3.23 xFIP and 31% K’s to righties. Kipnis should remain batting cleanup for the Indians, and is way, way under-priced for the matchup in this ballpark.
Jorge Polanco- Polanco continues to be one of the most underrated hitters in the entire MLB, locked in at the top of what has been a top-three offense this season. For reference, Polanco comes into Monday night 11th overall in wRC+ across all hitters in the league (149) to go along with a .225 ISO. Rick Porcello has done a good job managing contact this season, but he still leans heavily towards fly balls (over 42% to LHH) and up against a team that top-three in ISO against right-handed pitching this season…that could be a disaster. Polanco provides a few hundred dollars in savings off the top overall tier at shortstop tonight, while providing some exposure to arguably the best offense on this slate.
Matt Adams- Adams is someone I have played quite a few times already this season, given his always cheap price tag, and coming off a two-homer game on Sunday he is my contingency plan at first base should Justin Bour not be in the lineup. The Nationals draw Jake Arrieta tonight, who has been extremely splitsy in 2019. Arrieta’s ground balls are cut by 20% to lefties compared to righties, and his strikeouts fall all the way down to 14% in the split as well. Someone that doesn’t have huge K ability is the perfect matchup for a free-swinger like Adams, and his huge .280 ISO is exactly what we target for upside as well. Furthermore, Arrieta is throwing his sinker 50% of the time to left-handed batters this season, a pitch that Adams has crushed the past few years to the tune of a .460 xWOBA and a .300 ISO.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
