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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers continue to make up the “Chalk Stack,” as they have featured a dominant offense this season. They currently rank third in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs, and 13th in team batting average and OPS. Texas has found significantly more success at home, where they are hitting for a .257 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS through 41 games. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Rangers are -192 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 6.5 runs.
Texas gets an elite matchup against Odrisamer Despaigne, who should no longer be throwing in the MLB. Through only two starts this season, he has posted an 0-2 record with an 8.71 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 7.23 xFIP and a 6.42 SIERA. Despaigne has allowed a 47.4% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 5.6% HR/FB rate this season, as well. Surprisingly, his opponents only own a 26.3% hard hit rate against him to go along with an 18.4% soft hit rate. Despaigne also enters this game with 13.5% strikeout and 5.9% swinging strike rates. The innings are limited, but he has struggled against everyone. Left-handed batters are hitting for a .385 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .408 wOBA, while righties have posted a .355/.581/.419 line against him. Historically, Despaigne has been worse on the road, as well, as he has allowed a career .305/.459/.360 line to his opponents away from home. He’ll be throwing in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB against a high-end offense tonight. There’s very little reason to believe he’ll be able to slow down the Texas offense.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, fifth in home runs, and seventh in team batting average. The Yankees have struggled a bit at home, but they still own a .258 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS through 40 home games. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. New York is a -166 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.0 runs tonight.
The Yankees get a matchup against Wade Miley, who has thrown well this season. Through 15 starts, he owns a 6-4 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 4.22 xFIP and a 4.41 SIERA in those starts. He has given up 31.2% fly ball and 15.6% HR/FB rates this season, as well. Miley’s opponents currently own a 38.2% hard hit rate against him, while he has posted a 17.3% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 20.5% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates into this game. Miley has also been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .252 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .309 wOBA. He has also been at his worst on the road, where his opponents have posted a .268/.435/.324 line against him this season. Miley gets a matchup against a team loaded with elite right-handed batters in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB. He’s a pitcher that due for regression, and this is a matchup that heavily favors the Yankees.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Zack Godley
Godley has struggled throughout the 2019 season, posting a 3-4 record with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 18 games (8 starts). He’s due for some positive regression, as he owns a 5.25 xFIP and a 5.14 SIERA, but those numbers are nothing to write home about. He has given up 35.7% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 39.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.4% soft hit rate. Godley’s strikeout rate has also dipped to 17.4%, although he owns a 10.3% swinging strike rate. He’s a -139 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.4 runs.
Godley gets an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who don’t strikeout at an overly high rate on this slate, but rank last in terms of team wOBA by a wide margin. He has found more success against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .234 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has given up a .277/.535/.365 line at home this season, though. Still, there are limited pitching options, and Godley gets arguably the best matchup on the board. He isn’t a player to use in cash games, but he can be considered in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Delino DeShields
DeShields has looked decent recently, posting a .269 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .739 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits, one RBI, and one stolen base over that span. He has also recorded 38% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. DeShields has been at his best at home, though, where he owns a .298 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .811 OPS. He enters this game with a 0.015 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching, as well.
DeShields gets a matchup against Odrisamer Despaigne, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit second in the Texas Rangers offense, as well. Simply put, this is entirely too cheap for anyone hitting near the top of the lineup on the team with the highest implied run total on the slate. He’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
