Pitchers
Mike Clevinger- We haven’t seen much from Mike Clevinger this season, but what we have seen has been as good as it gets with a 2.60 SIERA, 47% strikeouts held back by 11% walks (three walks in two different starts). He returned from the injured list on June 17th striking out seven Rangers over 4.2 innings and allowing five runs, the important note from this game is that he hit 91 pitches even before exiting due to an ankle injury. Now, I have no “insider” information on this, but Clevinger was literally photographed skateboarding a few days ago so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the ankle is just fine, and if it is, I think 95+ pitches should be in the cards for him tonight in a plus matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. If you don’t want to trust him coming off the IL, I understand, but given the lack of ace pitching on this slate and his price, he checks in as my top option on this slate in all formats.
Wade Miley- Given that it’s a Coors Field slate and there is no Max Scherzer/Chris Sale level pitcher, sure Jacob deGrom is amazing, but he is not a priority against the Braves offense, we are going to be looking at pitcher’s we don’t normally roster, starting with Wade Miley against the Mariners. Miley’s surface numbers — 4.45 SIERA with 21% strikeouts don’t stick out, but he’s been quite a bit better at home in Houston where this game takes place, owning a 3.48 xFIP with 26% strikeouts there this season. He also has a better than it looks matchup with the Mariners, who strike out 26% of the time against southpaws this season, good for fifth-most in the MLB. Overall, their offensive numbers look great against left-handed pitching, but they are due to come back to earth with Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce no longer on the team, and Mitch Haniger on the IL. He’s in play for me on DraftKings, but on FanDuel at just $7,100 he really sticks out as a strong play even in cash games.
Elieser Hernandez- On a mission to save at pitching tonight, out next guest is the Marlins youngster Elieser Hernandez. I’ve loved what I have seen from Hernandez through his first three major league starts pitching to a 3.35 SIERA with 28% strikeouts and 14% swinging strikes. Most of his damage comes against right-handed batters, where he owns a 3.35 xFIP with 35% strikeouts and just 30% hard hits. This is good news for tonight’s matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, who should send just three left-handed batters to the plate, with another boost being that this game takes place in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. This is another cheap arm I’m interested in tonight and I do see him as playable in all formats, as long as there are at least six right-handed batters in the Phillies lineup.
Building Blocks
Eugenio Suarez- Suarez has been the victim of some really cheap pricing over the last few weeks, and I’m going right back to the well with him tonight against the left-handed Cole Hamels. Suarez has been his usual self this season positing a 129 wRC+ and a .222 ISO against southpaws, and while Hamels has decent strikeouts and ground balls to right-handed batters, he allows 37% hard hits compared to just 29% against lefties.
Paul Goldschmidt- I feel like I’ve lost so much money playing Paul Goldschmidt this season, but he hasn’t actually been THAT bad. He still owns a .255 ISO against left-handed pitching, and is due for BABIP regression as well. His batted balll data over the last 15 days is good with a 93+ MPH exit velocity, and a matchup with a bad lefty in Eric Lauer could be just what we need for the big game to finally come.
Obvious Dodgers Love- I try not to list Coors Field players in this section, but after the Dodgers (and Rockies) erupted last night they are set to be the obvious chalk plays in cash games tonight in a matchup with Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has pitched to a 5.77 xFIP against left-handed batters this season with only 12% strikeouts. He’s good when it comes to contact management, but that might not matter with the hot weather in Coors and a gauntlet of left-handed batters in Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Alex Verdugo to try and get through. I will likely be spending down at pitcher today, and that should enable me to get all four of these guys in my optimal build.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
