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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have found quite a bit of offensive success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, and second in team batting average and OPS through 97 games. Houston has found more success on the road, where they boast a .266 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .815 OPS through 50 road games. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are currently -147 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Houston gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey, who has posted a 3-4 record with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP through 11 starts. He has also struggled with a 5.26 xFIP and a 5.54 SIERA in those starts. Harvey has held his opponents to a 30.8% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20.8% HR/FB this season. He has allowed his opponents to record a 41.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 10.4% soft hit rate. Harvey only owns 16% strikeout rate with a 9.7% swinging strike rate, as well. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .289 average with a .577 slugging percentage and a .399 wOBA. He has also given up a .257/.459/.320 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Harvey has also been at his worst in Los Angeles, where he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .313/.617/.410 line this season. Houston features a consistent offense, while also possessing tremendous power, and that will be on full display against Harvey. Without many clear stacks at the top of this slate, Houston is the safest one.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have featured arguably the best offense in the MLB this season, leading the league in home runs and OPS, while also ranking third in runs scored and team batting average. The Twins have found more success on the road, but they are still hitting for a .260 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .800 OPS through 45 home games this season. They are also averaging 5.2 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -128 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
The Twins get a matchup against Mike Fiers, who has thrown well with a 9-3 record, 3.56 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP through 20 starts. He’s due for major regression, though, as he also owns a 5.38 xFIP and a 5.26 SIERA in those games. He has given up a 40.9% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 10.5% HR/FB rate. Fiers has also allowed his opponents to post a 38.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 17.1% soft hit rate. He brings 15.8% strikeout and 7.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Fiers has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .249 average with a .355 slugging percentage and a .275 wOBA. He has given up a .205/.371/.285 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Fiers has also struggled most on the road, where he has allowed his opponents to record a .255/.435/.314 line this season. The Twins are likely to be one of the higher owned stacks on this slate, but they always seem to go a bit overlooked based on where their ownership should be.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels possess an above average offense this season, as they rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, and eighth in team batting average and OPS through 97 games. They have found more success in Los Angeles, where they have posted a .259 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .796 OPS. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game through 49 home games. The Angels are +135 underdogs in a game set at 10 runs tonight, but they still feature a respectable implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Wade Miley will be taking the mound for the Houston Astros tonight. He has performed well through 19 starts, posting a 7-4 record with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.38 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA this season. Miley has only given up a 31.8% fly ball rate, but his opponents have posted a 17% HR/FB rate against him in 2019. His opponents own 37.3% hard hit and 17.4% soft hit rates against him this season, as well. He also enters this game with 20.5% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates. Miley has been significantly worse against right-handed batters, who own a .239 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .308 wOBA against him. He has been at his worst on the road in 2019, where he has given up a .240/.421/.308 line. The Angels quietly boast a high upside offense with plenty of right-handed batters, and Miley is due for plenty of regression sooner rather than later.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Tanner Roark
Roark has seen mixed results this season, posting a 5-6 record with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 18 starts. He also owns a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.49 SIERA in those games. Roark has posted 35.9% fly ball and 12.7% HR/FB rates this season. Furthermore, he enters this game with 37.3% hard hit and 15.3% soft hit rates. Roark also boasts 22.6% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates in 2019. He’s currently a -118 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Roark gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Roark has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .222 average with a .315 slugging percentage and a .249 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .256/.409/.308 line in Cincinnati in 2019. He’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jordan Luplow
Luplow has seen limited at-bats over his last 10 games, and he owns a .238 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .667 OPS over that span. He has posted two extra-base hits in those games, as well. Luplow could be in line for a breakout, though, as he owns 41% hard hit and 58% fly ball rates to go along with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Most importantly, he owns 0.174 wOBA and 0.235 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Luplow gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Matt Boyd, who enters this game with a 3.35 xFIP and a 3.24 SIERA. He has struggled with 42.1% fly ball and 16.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. Boyd has also allowed his opponents to post a 39.9% hard hit rate this season. Luplow is expected to hit fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
