What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found tremendous offensive success this season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, eighth in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 108 games. Los Angeles has been better at home in 2019, but they are still hitting for a .249 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS through 54 road games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, the Dodgers are -153 favorites in a game set at 14 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 7.8 runs.
Los Angeles get an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has posted a 2-8 record with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP through 15 starts this season. He has struggled with a 5.19 xFIP and a 5.10 SIERA in 2019. Freeland has given up 36.8% fly ball and 19.1% HR/FB rates this season. He has allowed his opponents to post a 41.4% hard hit rate, while recording only a 16% soft hit rate, as well. He also brings 18.4% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Freeland has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a .371 wOBA. He has also struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .309/.509/.364 line in 2019. Furthermore, Freeland has been at his worst at home, where he has given up a .338/.655/.418 line this season. The Dodgers are coming off of a tough game in the opener of this series, but they should have no problems bouncing back in this game. They are an elite stacking option tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees own one of the best offenses in the MLB, as they rank second in the league in runs scored and home runs, and fourth in team batting average and OPS through 105 games. The Yankees have found plenty of success at home, where they boast a .265 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .800 OPS through 55 games. They are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in those contests. New York is a -213 favorite in a game set at 11.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 7.0 runs on this slate.
The Yankees get a great matchup against Taylor Clarke, who has struggled through 12 games (11 starts) this season. In those games, he has posted a 3-3 record with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Those numbers are backed by his 5.64 xFIP and 5.27 SIERA in 2019. Clarke enters this game with 40.5% fly ball and 19.1% HR/FB rates, as well. He has allowed his opponents to record a 40.6% hard hit rate this season to go along with a 10.6% soft hit rate. He has also posted 16.8% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates in 2019. Clarke has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .319 average with a .628 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA. He has also given up a .270/.559/.383 line to left-handed batters this season. He has struggled on the road, as well, allowing is opponents to record a .304/.591/.393 line in those innings. The Yankees have featured one of the hottest offenses in the MLB since the All Star Break, and Clarke is far from an MLB-caliber starter at this point. New York can be considered a second “Chalk Stack” on this slate, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled through 108 games this season. They currently rank 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, 29th in team batting average, and 25th in OPS. The Blue Jays have been significantly better on the road, where they have recorded a .245 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .718 OPS through 54 games. They are averaging 4.6 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game away from Toronto, as well. The Blue Jays are currently -107 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.
Mike Montgomery will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has struggled through 22 games (2 starts) this season, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.09 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.02 xFIP and a 5.47 SIERA. Montgomery has held his opponents to a 24.6% fly ball rate, while giving up a 27.6% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 42.5% hard hit rate, while posting an 11.7% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 12.3% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates, as well. Montgomery has been significantly worse against left-handed batters (in limited innings), allowing them to hit for a .511 average with a .889 slugging percentage and a .570 wOBA. He has also given up a .250/.489/.344 line to right-handed batters this season. The Blue Jays are a team that is going to go overlooked on this larger slate, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Griffin Canning
Canning has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 3-6 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 15 games (14 starts). He has posted a 4.84 xFIP and a 4.32 SIERA, as well. Canning has struggled with the long ball, allowing 46.5% fly ball and 15.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed a 41.2% hard hit rate, while recording a 17.2% soft hit rate. Canning does own 25.2% strikeout and 13.6% swinging strike rates this season, though. He’s a -256 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Canning gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-six in team wOBA. Canning has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, holding left-handed batters to a .194 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .302 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .224/.399/.302 line at home. He’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jason Heyward
Heyward has found some success recently, posting a .265 average with a .353 slugging percentage and a .658 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits, three RBIs, and one stolen base over that span, as well. Heyward also boasts 39% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.074 wOBA and .064 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Heyward gets a matchup against Adam Wainwright, who has posted a 4.32 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA through 19 starts this season. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA in 2019. Heyward is expected to hit sixth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he’s solid option in tournaments tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
