MLB DFS 8/18/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels continue to find offensive success, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. They also own a .251 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS on the road. Los Angeles is averaging 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The Angels are -117 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The Angels get an elite matchup against Martin Perez tonight. Through 11 starts, he owns a 2-5 record with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.96 ERA. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while posting a 5.5 K/9 through 57.2 innings. Perez has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .365 average with a .582 slugging percentage and a .429 wOBA, while allowing lefties to hit for a .327/.577/.392 line. Furthermore, he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .364/.568/.426 line at home this season. The Angels have an offense that can dominate anyone, especially in a hitter friendly stadium, and they are an elite stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Washington Nationals have featured an above average offense this season. Through 123 games, they rank 12th in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. They have featured a significantly better offense at home, where they are hitting .266 with a .439 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS. The Nationals are averaging 4.9 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in Washington, as well. They are -185 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Washington gets a matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, who has struggled on the road this season. Through nine road starts, he owns a 1-6 record with a 10.27 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.6 HR/9 with a 5.5 K/9 through 37.2 road innings. Chen is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .268 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .337/.663/.438 line on the road this season. Washington has a few dominant right-handed bats throughout their lineup, and they make an elite stacking option on this slate, although they do have a few players that could be owned at a fairly high rate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals have featured one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season, ranking 30th in the league in runs scored, 23rd in team batting average, and 28th in OPS. They have been a slightly better offense on the road, where they own a .238 average with a .377 slugging percentage and a .673 OPS. Kansas City is also averaging 3.9 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game away from home. The Royals are small underdogs in a game set at 9.5 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Dylan Covey will be taking the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight. He has struggled with a 4-9 record with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP through 16 starts. He has also recorded a 1.0 HR/9 and a 6.5 K/9 through 81.2 innings. Covey has struggled against left-handed batters, as well, allowing them to hit for a .294 average with a .442 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA. He’s allowing opponents to record a .287/.355/.313 line at home this season, as well. The Royals certainly come with plenty of risk, but they make a high upside stacking option that will likely go overlooked tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Betts is hitting .421 with a .789 slugging percentage and a 1.311 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also hitting for a .371/.713/1.169 line at home this season. Betts also owns a 51% hard-hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s also leading off, and could see extra at-bat opportunities.
Carpenter has been struggling a bit over his last 10 games, but he owns a 75% home run rate over that span. He has posted 48% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns a .590 slugging percentage and a .309 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018, as well.
Acuna is hitting .444 with a 1.083 slugging percentage and a 1.607 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns seven home runs over that span. He possesses 61% hard-hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Similarly to Betts and Carpenter, Acuna is leading off for his team.
Zimmerman has recorded 53% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.164 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Zimmerman gets a matchup against a pitcher that has struggled with home runs, as well.
Duda is playing in a stadium that is favorable to left-handed power hitters. He has been performing well over the last 15 days, as well, posting 51% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity. Duda also owns 0.105 wOBA and 0.143 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Keller has started each of his last 10 games, posting mixed results. Overall, he owns a 4-3 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in those games. He has held his opponents to a 0.5 HR/9, while posting a 5.8 K/9 in his last 60.1 innings, as well. Furthermore, Keller has scored 20+ DK points in five of his last nine starts. He’s an underdog tonight, but generally comes with those types of Vegas odds.
Keller gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Keller has been a slightly better option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .249 average with a .346 slugging percentage and a .283 wOBA. Lefties own a .250/.306/.310 line against him, as well. Keller comes with terrible risk, but he also comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Wieters continues to play well, recording a .333 average with a .485 slugging percentage and an .880 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 51% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Wieters has been a slightly more consistent option against left-handed pitching, as well, posting a 0.006 wOBA differential against lefties.
I have already outlined Wei-Yin Chen above, so I will not do that again. Wieters is only expected to hit eighth in the Nationals lineup, but they are projected to feature the highest scoring offense of the slate. He can be used in all leagues tonight.
Gordon’s numbers on paper look awful over his last 10 games, posting a .094 average with a .094 slugging percentage and a .362 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 36% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Gordon also dominates right-handed pitching, as he features 0.071 wOBA and 0.107 ISO differentials against righties.
I have already outlined Dylan Covey above, so I will not do that again. Gordon is hitting second in the Kansas City lineup, giving him ample opportunities to score tonight. While Gordon’s numbers have looked awful recently, he has scored fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. He’s a player best suited for cash games, though, as he somewhat lacks upside.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)