Pitcher
Gerrit Cole- Given the concerns around deGrom’s health, I have to lean slightly towards Gerrit Cole is choosing one of them tonight. This is not to say I don’t like deGrom, because I do, but I do think Cole is a bit safer even in a tougher matchup. This guy is striking out 30% of batters with 13% swinging strikes and we are talking about him having a bad season…imagine! This Rays lineup is solid, but they do strike out a lot and the upside is there for a big-time outing from Cole. He will likely be my SP1 in cash games on both sites.
Chris Paddack- Paddack continues to be affordable on all sites, and there is reason for optimism in this matchup with the Texas Rangers. Paddack is one of the brightest young stars in the MLB, but he’s yet to put it all together in the strikeout department. This is mainly because he has struggled to completely figure out left-handed batters during his short career, and Texas will be able to send at least five to plate against him. While that is a concern, they also rank bottom-three in ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The ceiling might not be truly massive right now, but we aren’t being asked to pay for it. This is an above-average pitcher in a solid matchup, below $8,000. I can see him being the highest-owned SP2 on the slate.
Casey Mize / Dane Dunning- I’m extremely excited to watch this game, we have two of the top pitching prospects in baseball squaring off. Mize was the number one overall pick in 2018 out of Auburn, and is as good as it gets when it comes to a guy that hasn’t made his MLB debut. He is not your typical high-upside prospect. He doesn’t project to strike out 26-30% of batters right away, but he has elite control and a deep pitch arsenal that is MLB-ready tonight. The sites priced him about where he should be, but I am 100% willing to use him in tournaments even against this red-hot White Sox offense.
As for Dunning, he is also a high-upside prospect with a much better matchup than Mize gets. We have no real idea how many pitches he will throw, coming off of Tommy John last season, but he is priced below $5,000 on DraftKings. That’s cheap enough for me to consider him in all formats against Detroit, and I could even see stacking the two together on DK where the win bonus isn’t as crucial to scoring.
Building Blocks
Tommy La Stella- Anyone that reads this article knows I like to start my articles with some value, and today we have that in La Stella against Johnny Cueto. Cueto can frustrate at times with high ground-balls against right-handed batters, but overall he is not a good pitcher, especially to lefties. La Stella is projected to bat second for the Angels tonight, priced below $4K on DK. Over the last two seasons he has the third-highest wOBA on the team against right-handed pitching (.367) behind only Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. He also has sneaky-good pop with a .201 ISO. Cueto allows a .349 wOBA to lefty-batters, and La Stella is one of my favorite plays in all formats on Wednesday.
Jordan Luplow- Luplow is another solid source of value, matched up with the southpaw Steven Brault. Brault isn’t a complete gas can, but he struggles with power at times to the right hand side. Luplow is always a pinch-hit risk, but I view him similarly to how I do Kike Hernandez from the Dodgers, he’s just much cheaper. He owns a massive .391 ISO vs left-handed pitching dating back to last season, the highest mark on this Indians team. He also has the second-highest fly-ball rate, so he will be able to counter-act Brault’s ground-ball lean.
It’s a Coors Field slate, so I will likely be plugging in value so that I can get as much exposure there as possible in cash games. The Astros are the top stack for me as I am simply not a believer in Ryan Castellani, while Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are always top plays against left-handed pitchers.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
