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MLB DFS (8/21/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP August 21st, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

 

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

 

    1. Yankees (-220) –  The Yankees shouldn’t end up carrying too much ownership on a full 15 game slate given the fact they get a major downgrade in the park they’re playing at and the fact that over 47 major league innings, Pablo Lopez hasn’t been that bad!  So why are we targeting them in our GPP’s? Well, Vegas is still high on the Yankees and is obviously factoring their upside into a 4.6 implied run total.  We know how talented Masahiro Tanaka is so that explains the 7.5 game O/U which does have me slightly concerned but I’m confident that the ballpark will limit any chance the Marlins had of doing damage to Tanaka.  Pablo Lopez has been able to keep his xFIP and SIERA in a pretty good range by limiting walks which is something he did extremely well in the minors, so you’d imagine this trend is sustainable for the young right-hander.  Since July 21st, Lopez has given up at least one HR in each of his starts, hasn’t pitched in 8 days, and is coming off the worst start of his career against the Braves where he gave up 6 runs over 5.1 IP.  The Marlins bullpen is towards the bottom of the league in terms of WAR and xFIP so with the Yankees going into the 6/7th inning’s with a lead expect them to get some major opportunities to do damage.  As the away team there is a lot of added value to the 1-8 hitters given the guarantee of 9th inning ABs.  The players to stack from the Yankees here are Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton (Narrative Street – duh), Gleyber Torres, and Brett Gardner – in that order.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Miguel Andujar
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Giancarlo Stanton

 

    1. Nationals (-132) – The Nationals have a plethora of batters who can absolutely crush RHP.  Vincent Velasquez is someone who does possess some K ability but is prone to blow-up games which we’re seeing vegas indicate today as the Nationals are implied for 4.8 runs in a game total of 9. While Velasquez is able to hold his own and perform at a high level against righties, he struggles immensely with left-handed batters which the Nationals are stacked with.  Against LHB’s, Velasquez owns a .340 wOBA, 4.32 xFIP, and an aHC% that is much higher against lefties.  He has also struggled so far in August to the tune of a 4.99 xFIP and really hasn’t been good at all in the 2nd half of the season, seen by his 4.64 xFIP compared to a 3.84 xFIP in the first half.  Juan Soto is the top play here for the Nationals, a lefty who posts a team-high 144 wRC+/.390 wOBA/15.3 wRAA/.219 ISO line against righties.  Bryce Harper is also an elite play here with a 139 wRC+/.382 wOBA/.290 ISO (!!) line. These two power lefties are LOCKS against Vincent Velasquez.  Also, consider Adam Eaton (great value leading off), Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon to round out your stack.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Juan Soto
          2. Best Bet for a home-run: Bryce Harper

 

Bobby’s (LOW-OWNED) BOMB’S
Jose Ramirez – 6.0k = 189 wRC+/.376 ISO/.452 wOBA
Randal Grichuck – 4.0k = .323 wOBA/.249 ISO/102 wRC+
Juan Soto – 4.6k = .219 ISO /144 wRC+/.390 wOBA
Joc Pederson – 4.1k = .299 ISO/144 wRC+/.382 wOBA

 

Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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