Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser seems like the most obvious option at pitcher, and it’s going to be difficult to avoid him. He has thrown extremely well through 27 games (10 starts), posting a 5-5 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Those numbers are backed by a 3.71 xFIP and a 3.91 SIERA. Houser has held his opponents to a 25.5% fly ball rate, though he has given up a 20.8% HR/FB rate. He also posted 35.5% hard hit and 20.4% soft hit rates in 2019. Most importantly, Houser brings 24.7% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates into this game. He gets a plus matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who strikeout at a relatively average rate on this slate, while ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Houser is a -100 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, but that may not matter. He has thrown 89+ pitches in each of his last three games, and Houser is entirely too cheap tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: If fantasy owners are spending down at pitcher tonight, Houser is the best option. However, it also makes sense to spend up and avoid Houser.
Jason’s Pick: Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander is the best available pitching option tonight, and he can be rostered in both cash games and tournaments. The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, and as a team, they strikeout 0.264 times per at-bat. Verlander is currently sporting a 12.1 K/9, and his strikeout prediction for tonight’s game is almost in the double-digits. Vegas has this game set at 8.5 total runs, but the Houston Astros are outstanding -491 betting favorites, giving the Tigers an implied run total of 2.6. Verlander is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games, and fantasy owners can trust him tonight without hesitation.
Justin’s Reaction: Verlander is the clear top option on this slate, and it makes sense to pair him with Houser.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Hunter Dozier
Using someone as cheap as Houser at pitcher will allow you spend up on bats tonight. Hunter Dozier has been playing well recently, posting a .316 average with a .658 slugging percentage and a .999 OPS over his last 10 games. Over the same span, he owns seven extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs. Dozier posted 48% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Aaron Brooks in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Dozier enters this game with a 0.007 ISO differential. He’s expected to hit third in the Kansas City Royals’ lineup, and he makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ve been an advocate for Dozier for awhile now, and that will not change tonight. Good recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies is one of the more powerful second basemen in the league, which gives fantasy owners an advantage in tournaments. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .275 with 1 home run, 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Caleb Smith is on the mound tonight, so the Atlanta Braves will not be heavily targeted, but Albies (and Ronald Acuna – see below) has a huge advantage over left-handed pitchers. He enters tonight’s game with 0.118 ISO and 0.131 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, Albies has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and the Braves are heavy favorites (-190), giving them an implied run total of 5.6. In tournaments, this is a good team to target, and Albies is at the forefront of their offensive attack.
Justin’s Reaction: I like this play a lot. Smith is significantly worse on the road, and his name will keep people off of him.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler is another Kansas City Royals’ player who can be considered tonight. He has been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB over his last 10 games, posting a .345 average with a .828 slugging percentage and a 1.353 OPS over that span. He boasts six extra-base hits (four home runs), nine RBIs, and one stolen base in those games. Soler enters this game with 65% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates to go along with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets the same elite matchup against Aaron Brooks in Baltimore tonight, and Soler brings 0.062 wOBA and 0.111 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Soler is expected to hit second in the Kansas City Royals’ lineup, and he can safely be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: It is impossible to avoid Soler right now.
Jason’s Pick: Ronald Acuna
Since Justin is recommending a mini-stack, so will I. Ronald Acuna is expected to hit leadoff for the Atlanta Braves tonight, and against the left-handed Caleb Smith, he will sport 0.074 ISO and 0.052 wOBA differentials. On the season, Acuna is hitting 0.064 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics have been great. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. In his last 10 games, Acuna is averaging 14 fantasy points per game with a batting average over .300, 5 home runs, and 10 RBIs. He also has three stolen bases, which increases his upside. The Braves’ young All-Star can be rostered in all leagues tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: This reaction is the same as Albies. He’s a high-level tournament option, though, as I’m not a fan of him in cash on this slate.
