MLB DFS (8/22/18) - Bobby's Batter Up » DFS Karma
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MLB DFS (8/22/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP August 22nd, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

 

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

 

    1. Padres (+215) –   This play makes a ton of sense for me.  The Padres are going to be under 5% owned in Coors with an O/U game total of 10.5.  There is a ton of value to be had here as Jon Gray will most likely be the heavy chalk across both sites.  This Padres team is not as incompetent as you may think.  They really have a chance to crush in Coors here.  I’m not going to lie, it is extremely hard to find holes in Jon Gray’s game.  He is pretty elite IMO.  The ONE thing that intrigues me is his aHC% allowed to LHB’s which could be an issue at Coors where he gives up an FB 1/3 of the time to lefties.  This is a very small detail because overall Gray is an amazing pitcher.  This is Coors and if someone is going to get to him it will be the lefties on the Padres.  Our hope is that Gray is either just off his game or he works up a PC early in the game and the bullpen comes in.  The Padres have six hitters with a wRC+ above 100 against RHP. Wil Myers leads the group here, he owns a 120 wRC+/.346 wOBA/.190 ISO line and has a good shot for a big game at 4.9k on Draftkings.  Next, consider Eric Hosmer, a lefty with some pop that we’re trying to look for (.783 OPS). Also, Hunter Renfroe, Cory Spangenberg, and Austin Hedges make for great leverage plays.  This is an extremely high-risk stack but one that I think can pay off.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Wil Myers
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Eric Hosmer

 

    1. Nationals (-154) – The Nationals have a plethora of batters who can absolutely crush RHP.  Things ended up working out yesterday with the Nationals as they scored 10 runs. Today they are facing a better pitcher in Zach Eflin for sure, but a depleted Phillies bullpen, and have a lot of vegas support behind them with a 4.7 implied run total. I’m amazed at the turn around Eflin has had after he posted a SIERA over 5 in both of his first two seasons and now has one under 4.  I don’t think the whole story is being told in the numbers here as I believe there will be some regression coming his way.  Similar to Velasquez, Eflin struggles heavily with LHB’s.  His xFIP against them jumps to 4.24 and his wOBA to .340.  Juan Soto is the top play here for the Nationals, a lefty who posts a team-high 144 wRC+/.390 wOBA/15.3 wRAA/.219 ISO line against righties.  Bryce Harper is also an elite play here with a 139 wRC+/.382 wOBA/.290 ISO (!!) line. These two power lefties are LOCKS against Vincent Velasquez.  Also, consider Adam Eaton (great value leading off), and Anthony Rendon to round out your stack.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Juan Soto
          2. Best Bet for a home-run: Bryce Harper

 

Bobby’s (LOW-OWNED) BOMB’S
Gregory Polanco – 4.3k = 127 wRC+/.266 ISO/.360 wOBA
Todd Fraizer – 4.2k = .327 wOBA/.183 ISO/108 wRC+
Juan Soto – 4.6k = .219 ISO /144 wRC+/.390 wOBA
Hunter Renfroe – 4.3k = .237 ISO/110 wRC+/.330 wOBA

 

Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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