MLB DFS 8/24/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies offense has found plenty of success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. They continue to play at an elite level in Colorado, where they are hitting .277 with a .469 slugging percentage and an .808 OPS. The Rockies are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game at home this season. This game is essentially a pick ‘em set at 10.5 runs, giving Colorado an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.
The Rockies get a solid matchup against Miles Mikolas, who has struggled at times on the road this season. Through 12 road starts, he owns a 7-0 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 0.9 HR/9, while posting a 6.3 K/9 through 72.2 road innings, as well. He has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .267 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. While Mikolas has thrown well this season, his 3.74 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA suggest he will see regression as the season continues. Colorado features an offense that can dominate anyone when they are playing at home, and they make a great option tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs throughout the season. They currently rank 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. They have performed well on the road this season, recording a .253 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS through 66 road games. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game away from home. As mentioned above, this game is a pick ‘em set at 10.5 runs, giving the Cardinals and implied run total of 5.4 runs.
St. Louis gets a solid matchup against Antonio Senzatela tonight. He has struggled with a 4-3 record, 4.47 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP through 16 games (six starts). He has only allowed a 0.5 HR/9 with a 6.5 K/9 through 52.1 innings, though. Senzatela has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .252 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .313 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .274/.398/.316 line in Colorado this season. The Cardinals feature a high upside offense that will get a boost from the ballpark factor tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers only rank 21st in the MLB in team batting average, but they also rank ninth in the league in runs scored and seventh in OPS. They have also performed well on the road, where they are hitting .249 with a .434 slugging percentage and a .768 OPS through 63 games. Los Angeles is averaging 5.2 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 63 road games. The Dodgers are -243 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, as well, giving them an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.
Clayton Richard will be taking the mound for the San Diego Padres tonight. He has struggled over his last 10 starts, posting an 0-4 record with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in those games. He has posted a 1.2 HR/9 with a 3.9 K/9 over his last 55 innings, as well. Richard has also struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .257 average with a .434 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. The Dodgers have an offense that can dominate pitchers with low strikeout rates, and that should be the case tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Davis came through with a home run for us last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s hitting .289 with five home runs over his last 10 games. He has also posted a 47% hard-hit and 63% fly ball rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis owns a .599 slugging percentage and a .331 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Frazier is finally heating up for New York, hitting .294 with a .676 slugging percentage and a 1.051 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 44% hard-hit and 62% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Frazier has also posted a .496 slugging percentage and a .253 ISO against left-handed pitching in his career.
Peralta has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.078 wOBA and 0.106 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also hitting .314 with six home runs over his last 10 games, while posting a .357 average with a .647 slugging percentage and a 1.053 OPS through 57 games in Arizona this season.
Shaw will be playing at home tonight, where he has been a more consistent and more powerful option this season. He has performed well over his last 10 games, as well, posting 48% hard-hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. He also possesses 0.088 wOBA and 0.16 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Acuna continues to dominate his opponents, recording a .314 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.156 OPS over his last 10 games. Furthermore, he has posted 65% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also possesses a .590 slugging percentage and a .290 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Velazquez has looked outstanding through 36 games (five starts) this season. Overall, he boasts a 7-1 record with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while posting a 5.2 K/9 through 65.2 innings. He’s a -132 favorite in a game set at only 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.8 runs.
Velazquez gets a good matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average team in terms of team wOBA. Velazquez has also performed well against right-handed batters, holding them to a .297 average with a .338 slugging percentage and a .303 wOBA. He isn’t a pitcher known for recording strikeouts, but he comes with an extremely low price tag. He’s best suited for tournaments, though, as he may only throw 80 pitchers, potentially limiting his win opportunity.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Adduci has been playing at a high level recently, recording a .314 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .751 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 46% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Adduci has also found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, boasting 0.25 wOBA and 0.157 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a great matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .226 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA. Adduci is expected to hit sixth in the Tigers lineup, and he has been a consistent option that has also flashed upside. Adduci can be used in all leagues.
O’Hearn continues to play at a high level, posting a .273 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a .961 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. O’Hearn also possesses 41% hard-hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has performed well against right-handed pitching, as well, featuring 0.343 wOBA and 0.236 ISO differentials against righties.
O’Hearn gets a tough matchup against Mike Clevinger tonight. He has struggled more against left-handed batters, though, allowing them to hit for a .248 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. O’Hearn is hitting sixth in Kansas City’s lineup, and he comes with tremendous upside. He’s a player that is best suited for tournaments in this matchup.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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