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MLB DFS 8/26/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies continue to play well this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, while also ranking eighth in team batting average and OPS. They’re hitting .280 with a .473 slugging percentage and an .815 OPS through 63 games at home. They’re averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in Coors, as well. Today, they are -144 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.0 runs.

The Rockies get a matchup against Austin Gomber, who owns a 3-0 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 22 games (five starts). He has also held his opponents to a 0.6 HR/9, while recording a 7.7 K/9 through 42.1 innings. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .241 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .310 wOBA. More importantly, Gomber’s 5.08 xFIP and 4.96 SIERA suggest he is due for major regression as the season continues. The Rockies feature one of the best offenses in the MLB when playing at home, and this is a matchup they can take advantage of.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

New York Mets

The New York Mets have struggled quite a bit this season, ranking 23rd in the MLB in runs scored, 29th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS. They have been playing much better since the All Star Break, though, recording a .257 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .748 OPS since then. They’re also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game since the ASB. They’re -109 favorites in a game set at 9 runs today, and they feature an implied run total of 4.6 runs.

Jefry Rodriguez will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals. He has struggled through seven games (five starts), posting a 1-1 record with a 5.46 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 with a 7.0 K/9 through 29.2 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .321 average with a .623 slugging percentage and a .425 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .300/.564/.395 line on the road this season. The Mets are somewhat of a sneaky stack that could go overlooked today, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Todd Frazier

Frazier has been heating up recently, hitting three home runs in his last four games. He has also posted 47% hard-hit and 65% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has recorded a .460 slugging percentage and a .208 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, as well.

Paul DeJong

DeJong has been struggling on paper recently, but he owns 50% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’ll also get a major boost from playing in Coors today. DeJong owns a career .484 slugging percentage and a .236 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Nolan Arenado

Arenado is hitting .356 with a .671 slugging percentage and a 1.111 OPS through 63 home games this season. He has also posted an .829 slugging percentage and a .429 ISO against left-handed pitching. Furthermore, he’s hitting for a .368/.500/.944 line over his last 10 games.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Kevin Gausman

Gausman has looked outstanding since joining the Atlanta Braves, allowing only six earned runs over his first 27 innings. He also owns a 0.3 HR/9 and a 5.7 K/9 with his new team. Furthermore, Gausman is averaging a healthy 24.9 DK points per game over his last three starts. Today, he’s a -172 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.3 runs.

Gausman gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate, but rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Overall, Gausman has found more success against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .253 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA. He looks like a new pitcher since joining the Braves, and this is a matchup that we know Gausman can take advantage of.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Jay Bruce

Bruce has only returned for two games, but he has scored 16 and 5 DK points in those games, respectively. He also owns 40% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over that small sample size. Bruce has been a better option against right-handed pitching, though, posting 0.054 wOBA and 0.012 ISO differentials against righties.

I have already outlined Jefry Rodriguez above, so I will not do that again. Bruce is expected to hit fifth in the Mets lineup, and his power has been on full display in his short return to New York. He’s a relatively safe option in this matchup, who also comes with tremendous upside.

Billy McKinney

McKinney has only played in nine games this season, but he owns a .333 average with a .708 slugging percentage and a 1.157 OPS. He has totaled three home runs and nine RBIs in those games. He also owns 61% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. While the sample size is small, McKinney has posted 0.274 wOBA and 0.409 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.

He gets a matchup against Vince Velasquez, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .245 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA this season. McKinney is expected to lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays, giving him ample opportunities to score fantasy points. He’s an elite salary relief option in all leagues.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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