MLB DFS 8/28/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found quite a bit of offensive success this season, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. The Dodgers have also been a better offense on the road, where they are hitting .249 with a .434 slugging percentage and a .768 OPS. They’re averaging 5.2 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. Los Angeles is a -205 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.6 runs.
The Dodgers get an elite matchup against Ariel Jurado tonight. Through six starts, he owns a 2-3 record with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.7 HR/9, while posting a 3.3 K/9 through 32.1 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .370 average with a .630 slugging percentage and a .453 wOBA. He’s allowing righties to hit for a .260/.442/.307 line, as well, while struggling at home. The Dodgers feature one of the highest upside offenses on the slate, and they make an elite stacking option tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have featured an elite this season, ranking first in the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. They have been a better offense in Boston, as well, posting a .280 average with a .484 slugging percentage and an .828 OPS through 64 home games. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 4.2 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Red Sox are currently -253 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.3 runs.
Boston gets a great matchup against Jose Urena, who has struggled through 25 starts this season. In those games, he has posted a 4-12 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.0 HR/9, while recording a 7.0 K/9 through 138 innings. Urena has struggled against left-handed batters throughout the season, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .242/.358/.289 line on the road. Boston features arguably the best offense in the MLB when they are playing at home, and this is a matchup they can take easily advantage of.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals own an average offense this season. Through 131 games, they rank 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. They have struggled at times in St. Louis this season, but they are hitting .247 with a .385 slugging percentage and a .699 OPS at home. They are also averaging 4.2 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game in St. Louis. They are currently -160 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Ivan Nova will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5-3 record with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 12 road starts. He has also allowed a 1.9 HR/9 with a 7.0 K/9 through 66 road innings. Nova has also struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .506 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. He’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .275/.519/.360 line on the road. The Cardinals own a high upside offense that will likely feature low ownership tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Voit has been playing at an elite option over his last 10 games, recording a .414 average with a .724 slugging percentage and a 1.193 OPS over that span. He owns 50% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over his last 10 games, as well. He has also posted an .850 slugging percentage and a .450 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Dozier’s numbers don’t stick out recently, but he owns 38% hard-hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Dozier will be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium, though, and he owns a .421 slugging percentage and a .199 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Shaw is only hitting .216 over his last 10 games, but he owns three home runs over that span. He also owns 34% hard-hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity in those games. Shaw has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, as well, posting 0.086 wOBA and 0.156 ISO differentials against righties.
Perez is always a solid option against left-handed pitching, as he owns a .461 slugging percentage and a .194 ISO against lefties throughout his career. He has also been playing well recently, recording 48% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Galloway has been on fire recently, hitting .313 with a .563 slugging percentage and a 1.039 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns an .800 slugging percentage and a .400 ISO in limited at-bats against left-handed pitching. He’ll also be playing in a hitter friendly stadium in Boston tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Ramirez has struggled at times this season, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 60 games. He has also allowed a 1.6 HR/9, while posting a 10.1 K/9 through 71 innings. Ramirez is not expected to throw deep into this game, but he could throw four innings in an efficient start. He’s a small underdog, but likely won’t be able to pick up the win regardless.
Ramirez gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who strikeout at a fairly high rate against right-handed pitching. He has looked better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .247 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. He has also held lefties to a .248/.438/.331 line this season. Ramirez doesn’t come with a ton of upside because of his lack of stamina, but his price tag is entirely too low on DraftKings. He’ll allow you to stack top offense, such as Boston tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Souza has looked decent over his last 10 games, hitting .229 with four extra-base hits, five RBIs, and two steals over that span. He has also posted 46% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity in those games. Souza has dominated left-handed pitching, as well, recording 0.162 wOBA and 0.169 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who has thrown well this season. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .226 average with a .390 slugging percentage and a .297 wOBA. Souza is hitting fifth in the Diamondbacks lineup, and he makes a high upside leverage play tonight.
Walker has been heating up a bit over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting .235 with a .441 slugging percentage and a .798 OPS. He owns 33% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 90 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He has also looked outstanding against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.112 wOBA and 0.082 ISO differentials against righties.
Walker gets a great matchup against James Shields tonight. Surprisingly, he has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, although he’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .210 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .298 wOBA. Walker is expected to hit fifth in the Yankees lineup, and they should feature one of the highest scoring offenses on the slate. He’s a high upside option tonight.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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