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MLB DFS 8/30/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have featured an elite offense this season, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 12th in team batting average. They have been at their best in New York, where they are hitting .265 with a .475 slugging percentage and an .821 OPS. The Yankees are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in New York, as well. Tonight, they are -321 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6 runs.

The Yankees get an elite matchup against Francisco Liriano, who has been struggling over his last 10 games (nine starts). Over that span, he owns a 0-6 record with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He owns a 2.0 HR/9 with a 7.0 K/9 over his last 41 innings, as well. Liriano has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. The Yankees feature a few elite right-handed batters throughout their lineup, and they should have no problems scoring runs in this matchup.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while ranking third in team batting average through 132 games. They have played well at home this season, where they are hitting .260 with a .410 slugging percentage and a .737 OPS. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in Atlanta. The Braves are currently -127 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.

Mike Montgomery will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has been struggling a bit over his last nine games (eight starts), recording a 2-2 record with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over that span. He has posted a 0.6 HR/9 with a 5.5 K/9 over his last 44.1 innings, as well. He has struggled quite a bit against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .271 average with a .376 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA. The Atlanta Braves are a team that has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching this season, and they make a sneaky stacking option on this slate.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Mike Trout

Trout has only played in five games since returning from injury, but he owns 41% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity in those games. He has also dominated right-handed pitching, recording a .628 slugging percentage and a .321 ISO against righties this season.

Luke Voit

Voit has caught fire recently, hitting .400 with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.138 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 56% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Voit also owns a .446 slugging percentage and a .196 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career.

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt has been an elite option against left-handed pitching, recording a .596 slugging percentage and a .268 ISO against lefties throughout his career. He has also been playing well over his last 10 games, posting a .333 average with a .556 slugging percentage and a .984 OPS over that span.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

German Marquez

Marquez has struggled at home this season, but he has thrown extremely well on the road. Through 13 road starts, he owns a 7-3 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.9 HR/9, while posting a 9.2 K/9 through 81 road innings. He’s a -143 favorite in a game set at only 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.7 runs tonight.

Marquez gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking last in team wOBA. Marquez has also been an elite option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .193 average with a .356 slugging percentage and a .270 wOBA. HE’s holding his opponents to a .198/.334/.261 line on the road this season, as well. Marquez has been throwing well enough to safely be used in all leagues on this slate.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Kole Calhoun

Calhoun’s numbers do not stick out of his last 10 games, but he owns 63% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a better option against right-handed pitching, possessing 0.001 wOBA and 0.072 ISO differentials against righties.

Calhoun gets a tough matchup against Justin Verlander, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for only a .190 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .271 wOBA. Still, Calhoun is expected to lead off for Los Angeles, and he’s a high upside option. He should strictly be used in tournaments tonight.

Steven Souza

Souza has looked decent over his last 10 games, posting a .222 average with five extra-base hits, six RBIs, and one steal. He also owns 59% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over that span. Furthermore, Souza features 0.13 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.

He gets a matchup against Rich Hill, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .239 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. Souza is expected for hit fifth in the Diamondbacks lineup, and he has flashed tremendous upside recently. He’s another great salary relief tournament option on this smaller slate.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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