Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled at times offensively this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, and 21st in OPS. They have found some success on the road this season, where they are hitting .231 with a .400 slugging percentage and a .702 OPS. The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.2 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The are currently -108 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.1 runs.
The Diamondbacks get a matchup against Jon Gray, who has featured plenty of ups and downs this season. Through 13 home starts, he owns a 6-3 record with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He owns a 1.1 HR/9 with a 10.3 K/9 through 75 home innings, as well. Gray has struggled at times against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .253 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .261/.426/.324 line at home this season. Gray also struggled in his only matchup against the Diamondbacks this season. They make a relatively low risk, high upside stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature an elite offense, leading the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. They have also been at their best in Boston, where they are hitting .284 with a .485 slugging percentage and an .833 OPS. The Red Sox are averaging 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits per game at home. They are massive -231 favorites in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Aaron Sanchez will be taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 starts, recording a 2-2 record with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP over that span. He has also allowed a 1.1 HR/9 with an 8.9 K/9 over his last 47.2 innings. Sanchez has also struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .303 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .391 wOBA. He has struggled on the road, as well, where he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .264/.408/.334 line this season. The Red Sox feature the best offense in the MLB when playing at home, and this is a matchup they can take advantage of.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Shaw has struggled a bit recently, but owns a 66% home runs rate over his last 10 games. He has also posted 43% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over that span. Shaw has been at his best against right-handed pitching, possessing 0.095 wOBA and 0.177 ISO differentials against righties.
Hernandez has been playing well recently, hitting .261 with a .609 slugging percentage and a .929 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 44% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns a .489 slugging percentage and a .270 ISO against left-handed pitching, as well.
Story owns a .707 slugging percentage and a .372 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s also hitting .303 with a .661 slugging percentage and a 1.019 OPS through 72 games in Coors. Furthermore, Story owns a .325/.875/1.216 line over his last 10 games. He has also hit six home runs in those games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Pena has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, recording a 2-4 record with a 4.04 ERA anda 1.26 WHIP through 16 games (14 starts). He has also posted a 1.2 HR/9 with an 8.7 K/9 through 75.2 innings. Pena has also been on fire, as he’s averaging 20.1 DK points per game over his last five starts. He’s a -164 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Pena gets a great matchup against the Texas Rangers, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Pena has looked outstanding against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .200 average with a .342 slugging percentage and a .268 wOBA. He has thrown extremely well in the second half of the season, as well, holding his opponents to a .234/.380/.300 line in those games. Pena has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Davis has been struggling a bit recently, but he’s still hitting .250 over his last 10 games. He also owns a 32% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph exit velocity over that span. Davis has also been a significantly better option against right-handed pitching, as he owns a .497 slugging percentage and a .252 ISO against righties in his career.
He gets a solid matchup against Chris Bassitt, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .232 average with .290 slugging percentage and a .274 wOBA. Davis is hitting fifth in the Orioles lineup, and he comes with quite a bit of upside at home. He’s a player that should strictly be used in tournaments, though.
LaMarre continues to play well, hitting .333 with a .619 slugging percentage and a .967 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 41% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. LaMarre has also been at his best against left-handed pitching, as he features 0.085 wOBA and 0.044 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Eric Skoglund, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .292 average with a .506 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA. LaMarre is expected to hit sixth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)