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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, 16th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS through 147 games. Oakland has found more success on the road, where they are hitting for a .252 average with a .448 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 72 road games. They are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The A’s are -181 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.4 runs.
Oakland gets an interesting matchup against Brock Burke, who has only thrown in four starts in 2019. He has posted an 0-1 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in those starts. He’s due for regression, though, as he also owns a 5.29 xFIP and a 5.49 SIERA. Burke has recorded 30% fly ball and 19% HR/FB rates this season. He has also posted a 27.4% had hit rate to go along with a 23.3% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 12.6% strikeout and 5.0% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. In limited innings, Burke has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .350 average with a .350 slugging percentage and a .356 wOBA. He has held right-handed batters to a .188/.391/.280 line, but he is due for massive regression against righties, as he owns a 5.11 xFIP against them compared to a 5.99 xFIP against lefties. Burke has also given up a .244/.311/.264 line in Texas this season. Oakland will see a boost from playing in a hitter friendly stadium, and they are cheap enough for cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies possess an elite offense, as they rank ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and 10th in OPs through 147 games. The Rockies have been at their best at home, where they have posted a .299 average with a .518 slugging percentage and a .879 OPS through 72 games. They are also averaging 6.1 runs and 4.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Colorado is currently a +101 underdog in a game set at 12.5 runs, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 6.2 runs tonight.
The Rockies get a matchup against Joey Lucchesi, who has thrown well this season. Through 27 starts, he boasts a 10-7 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.35 xFIP and a 4.50 SIERA in those starts. Lucchesi has given up a 35.4% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 12.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 36.5% hard hit rate against him, while recording an 18.4% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 23% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates. Lucchesi has been slightly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .226 average with a .391 slugging percentage and a .289 wOBA. He has given up a .220/.356/.285 line to left-handed batters, as well. Most importantly, Lucchesi has struggled on the road, where his opponents have posted a .272/.472/.330 line against him this season. Colorado has a few dominant right-handed batters, and the majority of their team hits well at home. They might go a bit overlooked because this is a relatively difficult matchup, but the Rockies can find success against anyone in Coors.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros possess arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and fourth in home runs through 148 games. They have been at their best in Houston, but they have still posted a .267 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .818 OPS through 72 road games. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The Astros are -403 favorites in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 6.2 runs.
Danny Duffy will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals. He has seen mixed results through 20 starts, posting a 6-6 record with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has also struggled a bit with 5.18 xFIP and a 4.96 SIERA. Duffy has allowed his opponents to record 40.7% fly ball and 13.9% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 38.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.2% soft hit rate. He has posted 20.2% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates this season, as well. Duffy has posted similar numbers against left- and right-handed batters in 2019. Lefties are hitting for a .265 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA, while righties have posted .261/.456/.329 line against him this season. Duffy has also been slightly worse at home, where his opponents have recorded a .267/.455/.328 line against him. It isn’t often we get the Astros at potentially low ownership, and we need to take advantage of it when it happens.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adrian Houser
Tyler Beede is the obvious salary relief option, so I’m pivoting off of him here. Adrian Houser has thrown well this season, posting a 6-5 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through 31 games (14 starts). He also boasts a 3.67 xFIP and a 3.96 SIERA. Houser has held his opponents to 24.6% fly ball and 18.8% HR/FB rates. He has recorded 38% hard hit and 17.9% soft hit rates this season. Houser brings 24.8% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a +116 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Houser gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate on the slate. With that being said, they rank third last on this slate in team wOBA. Houser has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .225 average with a .330 slugging percentage and a .266 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .278/.455/.333 line on the road. Houser will be the low owned pivot off of Beede tonight, and he makes a solid option for a surprisingly low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Christin Stewart
Stewart has been playing well recently, posting a .290 average with a .645 slugging percentage and a .948 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs over that span, as well. Over the last 15 days, Stewart boasts 52% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings a 0.07 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Stewart gets a matchup against Aaron Brooks, who enters this game with a 5.29 xFIP and a 4.89 SIERA through 26 games (17 starts). He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .306 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA. He has also given up a .293/.530/.369 line to his opponents on the road in 2019. Stewart is expected to hit fourth in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he makes a great option tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
