MLB DFS 9/17/18 - Bales' Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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MLB DFS 9/17/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have featured an up and down offense this season, ranking 19th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. They have struggled at times on the road, though, where they own a .252 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .719 OPS. The Rays are averaging 4.1 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game away from home. Tampa Bay is a -134 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs

The Rays get a matchup against Adrian Sampson, who owns an 0-1 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through two games (one starts). He has also posted a 3.4 HR/9 with a 5.1 K/9 through only 5.1 innings. In a very short career, Sampson is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .370 average with a .593 slugging percentage and a .430 wOBA. He is also allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .267/.667/.406 line in his career. Sampson has yet to prove that he belongs in the MLB, as he has also posted a 5.02 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA this season. The Rays are an offense that won’t go overlooked tonight, and they make one of the safest stacks on the slate.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have been an average offense this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. The Brewers have been a better offense at home, where they own a .245 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .746 OPS. The Brewers are averaging 4.6 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in Milwaukee, as well. They are currently -169 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 runs.

Milwaukee gets a great matchup against Anthony DeSclafani tonight. He has struggled through 18 starts this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.8 HR/9 with a 7.9 K/9 through 99.1 innings. DeSclafani has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .272 average with a .569 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .253/.376/.293 line, as well. The Brewers could carry a bit of ownership tonight, but they feature one of the highest upside offenses on the slate.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have struggled quite a bit this season, ranking 26th in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in team batting average, and 27th in OPS. They have been at their best when they face off against left-handed pitching at home. Overall, they hitting .249 with a .392 slugging percentage and a .700 OPS in Detroit. The Tigers are averaging 4.1 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home. They are also -111 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.

Gabriel Moya will be taking the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight. He has been struggling recently, recording an 0-1 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP through his last 10 games (two starts). He is only expected to throw a couple of innings before giving way to Kohl Stewart or Tyler Duffey, both of which have struggled this season. It takes away the advantage of playing a lefty, but Detroit will still see time against a left-handed pitcher. Regardless of who throws the majority of this game, Detroit gets a great matchup. They generally go overlooked, but they are a great stacking option when playing at home.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Adrian Beltre

Beltre has caught fire recently, hitting .324 with a .784 slugging percentage and a 1.174 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 56% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Beltre has recorded a .479 slugging percentage and a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk is at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.027 wOBA and 0.099 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also hitting .316 with a .711 slugging percentage and a 1.061 OPS over his last 10 games. Grichuk owns 60% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.

Trevor Story

Story gets a tough matchup against Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he has posted an elite .688 slugging percentage and a .359 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He also owns a 0.103 ISO differential against lefties. Furthermore, Story has posted 41% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.

Ji-Man Choi

Choi continues to play well, hitting .226 with a .581 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 54% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Choi has also recorded 0.114 wOBA and 0.078 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.

J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto is only hitting .200 over his last 10 games, but he has a 50% home run rate over that span. He owns 40% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 90 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Realmuto has also posted a .528 slugging percentage and a .226 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Andrew Suarez

Suarez has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, recording a 6-11 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 26 starts. He has also posted a 1.4 HR/9 with a 7.5 K/9 through 145.1 innings. Suarez has also scored 28 and 26.2 DK points in two of his last four games. Surprisingly, he’s a small underdog, but the game is set at only 7.5 runs. His opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.

Suarez gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average offense in team wOBA. Suarez has looked outstanding against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .215 average with a .299 slugging percentage and a .237 wOBA. Suarez’s biggest struggles have come on the road this season, but he’s playing in an extremely pitcher friendly stadium tonight. He isn’t a safe enough option for cash games, but he can be considered in tournaments.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Robbie Grossman

Grossman has caught fire over his last 10 games, hitting .333 with a .455 slugging percentage and an .894 OPS over that span. He also owns 30% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.

Grossman gets a matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .254 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. Grossman is expected to hit fourth in the Minnesota lineup, as well. He’s been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

Victor Martinez

Martinez has struggled at times recently, hitting .206 with a .324 slugging percentage and a .560 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also owns a 50% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Martinez has been at his best against left-handed pitching, as he features 0.017 wOBA and 0.058 ISO differentials against lefties.

I have already outlined Gabriel Moya above, so I will not do that again. Martinez is hitting fourth in the Tigers lineup, adding to his value. He isn’t the safest option on the slate, but he comes with enough upside to be used in tournaments on this slate.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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