MLB DFS 9/26/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies have looked great offensively this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 157 games. They have also been a significantly better offense at home, where they are hitting .286 with a .488 slugging percentage and an .837 OPS. The Rockies are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in Colorado, as well. Tonight, they are -193 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 6.2 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Nick Pivetta, who owns a 3-5 record with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 14 road starts. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9, while posting a 9.5 K/9 through 68 road innings. Pivetta has struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .269 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. He is also allowing his opponents to hit for a .265/.427/.335 line on the road this season. His numbers have gotten better throughout the season, but he isn’t a pitcher to trust in Coors tonight. The Rockies feature an elite offense in Colorado, and they are one of the safest stacking options on the slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox own the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. They have been at their best in Boston, as well, where they are hitting .280 with a .475 slugging percentage and an .820 OPS. The Red Sox are also averaging 5.6 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game at home. They are currently -388 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, and they feature the second highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Boston gets a great matchup against Jimmy Yacabonis tonight. He has struggled through 10 games (five starts) this season, recording an 0-2 record with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.2 HR/9, while posting an 8.3 K/9 through 32.2 innings. Yacabonis has struggled against everyone this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .327 average with a .510 slugging percentage and a .406 wOBA, while righties hit for a .237/.513/.346 line. The Red Sox feature an offense that can dominate the best pitchers in the MLB, and Yacabonis is not that. Boston should feature some ownership tonight, but they are safe and come with tremendous upside.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Minnesota Twins have found some quiet offensive success this season, ranking 16th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in team batting average, and 20th in OPS. They have also performed well at home, where they own a .257 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .751 OPS. The Twins are averaging 4.7 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in Minnesota, as well. They are -141 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, meaning they boast an implied run total of 4.7 runs in this game.
Matt Boyd will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has struggled through 16 road starts this season, posting a 3-9 record with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.6 HR/9 with an 8.9 K/9 through 88 road innings. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .223 average with a .394 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. Boyd has also allowed his opponents to record a .240/.435/.324 line on the road this season. Minnesota is a team that generally goes overlooked, but they come with tremendous upside, specifically in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Trout has caught fire recently, hitting five home runs over his last 10 games. He also owns 46% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Trout enters this game with a .550 slugging percentage and a .252 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, as well.
Shaw continues to post elite peripherals, as he enters this game with 61% hard-hit and 57% fly ball rates and a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also hit three home runs over his last 10 games. Shaw has dominated right-handed pitching, as well, recording 0.121 wOBA and 0.217 ISO differentials against righties.
Pederson gets a tough matchup tonight, but he has dominated with 0.157 wOBA and 0.154 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has caught fire recently, as well, as he’s hitting .333 with a .733 slugging percentage and a 1.088 OPS over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Pederson has been a better option on the road this season.
Davis is only hitting .225 over his last 10 games, but he owns five home runs over that span. He has also posted 36% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis enters this game with a .576 slugging percentage and a .316 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, as well.
Aguilar has been playing well recently, as he’s hitting .265 with a .500 slugging percentage and an .833 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 46% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Aguilar also owns a .536 slugging percentage and a .265 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Odorizzi has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he owns a 7-10 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP through 31 starts. He has also held his opponents to a 1.1 HR/9, while recording an 8.9 K/9 through 161.1 innings. Odorizzi has caught fire recently, as well, scoring 23.3 and 26.1 DK points in his last two games. He’s also a -141 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.
Odorizzi gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average offense in terms of team wOBA. Odorizzi has also found success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .237 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. He’s a bit too cheap for this matchup, and he’s a pitcher that can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Grossman has been on fire recently, hitting .342 with a .526 slugging percentage and a .949 OPS over his last 10 games. He is averaging 9.2 DK points per game over that span, and he was able to score fantasy points in each of those games. His peripherals are far from elite, but it’s impossible to argue with his recent production.
I have already outlined Matt Boyd above, so I won’t do that again. Grossman is expected to hit fourth in the Twins lineup, giving him ample opportunities to score fantasy points. He’s a player that can safely be considered in all leagues tonight.
Galvis is another cheap option that has been playing at a high level recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .368 with a .632 slugging percentage and a 1.032 OPS. He also owns 48% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Galvis has been at his best away from home this season.
He gets a matchup against Casey Kelly, who has thrown well in limited innings this season. He has struggled against left-handed batters, though, allowing them to hit for a .324 average with a .647 slugging percentage and a .413 wOBA. Galvis is expected to lead off for San Diego tonight, and he makes a great option in all leagues on this slate.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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