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MLB DFS 9/28/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. They have also looked elite on the road, where they own a .264 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS. The Astros are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home this season, as well. Tonight, they are -238 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.3 runs.

The Astros get a matchup against David Hess, who has struggled with a 3-10 record, 5.14 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP through 20 games (18 starts) this season. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while recording a 6.5 K/9 through 96.1 innings. Hess has struggled against everyone this season, as he’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to record a .280/.486/.359 line against him this season. Hess has been a slightly better pitcher at home, but he has still struggled mightily in Baltimore. The Astros feature an elite offense, and they should find plenty of success in this game.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have looked outstanding through 159 games this season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking  sixth in team batting average. They have found more success in Colorado, where they are hitting .288 with a .497 slugging percentage and an .847 OPS. Colorado is averaging 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. They are -180 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.1 runs.

Colorado gets a matchup against Joe Ross tonight. He has only thrown in two games this season, allowing five earned runs through 11 innings. He has allowed a 1.1 HR/9 with a 7.9 K/9 through 266.1 career innings, though. Throughout his career, Ross has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he’s allowing his opponents to post a .260/.438/.332 line. Colorado will likely be another “Chalk Stack” on this slate, but they’re a team that is impossible to ignore. They come with tremendous upside, especially when playing in Coors.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have been a surprising offense this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in team batting average, and 11th in OPS through 159 games. They have also found quite a bit of success on the road, where they feature a .259 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .755 OPS. The Braves are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are currently -135 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.6 runs.

Jerad Eickhoff will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has only thrown in two games this season, but he owns a career 18-25 record with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 67 games (65 starts). He has also allowed a 1.2 HR/9 with an 8.0 K/9 through 378.1 innings. Eickhoff has struggled more against left-handed batters, as well, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .505 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA throughout his career. The Braves feature a high upside offense, and they will get a boost from playing in a hitter friendly stadium.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Mike Trout

Trout is only hitting .250 over his last 10 games, but he owns five home runs over that span. He also features 44% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity in those games. Trout has also posted a .655 slugging percentage and a .336 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.

Mookie Betts

Betts has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .389 with a .778 slugging percentage and a 1.255 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also hitting for a .364/.662/1.121 line at home this season. Betts enters this game with a .746 slugging percentage and a .377 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, as well.

Luke Voit

Voit has looked elite against left-handed pitching this season, recording a .674 slugging percentage and a .348 ISO against lefties in 2018. He’s also hitting .395 with an .868 slugging percentage and a 1.307 OPS over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Voit has been a significantly better option on the road this season.

Khris Davis

Davis has struggled a bit with consistency recently, but he has hit five home runs over his last 10 games. He also owns 36% hard-hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis has posted a .580 slugging percentage and a .320 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, as well.

Travis Shaw

Shaw has been heating up recently, hitting .296 with a .519 slugging percentage and a .976 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 50% hard-hit and 59% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Shaw also brings 0.122 wOBA and 0.219 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Zach Davies

Davies has posted a 2-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through 12 starts this season. He has also held his opponents to a 1.2 HR/9 with a 6.7 K/9 through 62 innings this season. Davies has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts, although he threw five or fewer innings in each of those games. He’s a -233 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.3 runs tonight.

Davies gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking second last in team wOBA. He has found more success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .263 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA. Davies isn’t necessarily the safest option on the slate, but he comes with more than enough upside to be considered for his price tag.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Kole Calhoun

Calhoun is only hitting .081 with a .189 slugging percentage and a .380 OPS over his last 10 games. His peripherals are significantly better over the last 15 days, though, as he owns 36% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. He has also dominated right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.002 wOBA and 0.089 ISO differentials against righties.

He gets a matchup against Mike Fiers, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .225 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA this season. Calhoun is expected to lead off for the Angels tonight, and he will see ample opportunities to score fantasy points tonight. He’s a high upside option.

Dylan Cozens

Cozens has only played limited games in the Majors, but he owns a .254 average with a .472 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS through 718 minor league games. He has also found more success against right-handed pitching throughout his short MLB career, as he features 0.046 wOBA and 0.148 ISO differentials against righties.

Cozens gets a matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has looked elite this season, but struggled a bit against left-handed batters throughout his career. Overall, he has allowed lefties to hit for a .260 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA in his career. Cozens is expected to hit sixth in the Phillies lineup, and he makes a high upside tournament option tonight.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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