MLB DFS 9/29/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies have found offensive success throughout the season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking sixth in team batting average. The Rockies have been at their best in Colorado, where they are hitting .288 with a .499 slugging percentage and an .849 OPS. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in Coors this season. Tonight, they are -125 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.1 runs.
The Rockies get a tough matchup against Stephen Strasburg, who has been struggling over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns a 3-3 record with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.0 HR/9 with an 11.4 K/9 over his last 52 innings. Strasburg has struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .253 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to record a .257/.417/.328 line in the second half of the season. The Rockies are playing in a must win game, giving them a bit more to play for with their season on the line. Even in a tough matchup on paper, the Rockies make an elite stack.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have featured plenty of ups and downs offensively this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. The Angels have struggled at times at home this season, where they are only hitting .238 with a .421 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS. They’re also averaging 4.4 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home this season. They are currently -132 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
Trevor Cahill will be taking the mound for the Oakland A’s tonight. He has struggled mightily on the road this season, where he owns a 1-3 record with a 7.02 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 0.6 HR/9, while recording a 6.8 K/9 through 42.1 road innings, though. Cahill has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .242 average with a .372 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .294/.446/.364 line on the road this season. Los Angeles may go a bit overlooked tonight, but they make a high upside stacking option.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Trout has been on fire, recording five home runs over his last 10 games. He has also posted 42% hard-hit and 69% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. Furthermore, Trout owns 0.043 wOBA and 0.084 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Peralta has dominated right-handed pitching, as he brings 0.101 wOBA and 0.091 ISO differentials against righties into this game. He has also been playing well over his last 10 games, posting a .267 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a .943 OPS over that span.
Austin has been playing well recently, recording 45% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also recorded a .282 average with a .513 slugging percentage and an .806 OPS over his last 10 games. Austin owns a career .602 slugging percentage and a .325 ISO against left-handed pitching, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Godley has struggled at times this season, but he owns a 14-11 record with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP through 32 games (31 starts). He has held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9 with a 9.4 K/9 through 172.1 innings this season, as well. Godley has also flashed upside recently, scoring 20+ DK points in four of his last 10 starts. He’s a -132 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
Godley gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Godley has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, holding left-handed batters to a .254 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He isn’t the safest option on the slate, but this is a matchup that is difficult to avoid him in. He can be considered in all leagues for his price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Zunino has been playing extremely well recently, as he’s hitting .313 with a .563 slugging percentage and a .934 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 47% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Zunino has been a better option against right-handed pitching, as well, entering this game with 0.069 wOBA and 0.056 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a matchup against Adrian Sampson, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .320 average with a .680 slugging percentage and a .459 wOBA in limited innings this season. Zunino is only expected to hit eighth in the Mariners lineup, but he has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues.
O’Brien is another player that has been playing at a high level, as he owns a .314 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a 1.004 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded a 55% hard-hit rate with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. O’Brien also features 0.102 wOBA and 0.093 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
He gets a matchup against Steven Matz, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .231 average with a .449 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA this season. O’Brien is hitting fourth in the Miami lineup, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues, although he may be best suited for tournaments.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)