MLB DFS 9/8/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to play well offensively, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. They have been a better offense on the road this season, posting a .250 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .772 OPS through 66 road games. They are also averaging 5.2 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home. Tonight, Los Angeles is a -127 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.3 runs.
The Dodgers get a matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has thrown surprisingly well this season. Through 28 starts, he owns a 13-7 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has also allowed a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 7.7 K/9 through 170.1 innings. Freeland has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .254 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA. He has also allowed 86.7% of his home runs to right-handed batters. The Dodgers feature one of the most powerful offenses in the MLB, and that will be on full display tonight. They are a relatively safe stack, even in this matchup, because of the stadium they are playing in.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have featured plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, while ranking 16th in team batting average and OPS. Los Angeles has also found success on the road this season, where they own a .250 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .729 OPS. The Angels are averaging 4.5 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. They are -132 favorites in a game set at 9 runs tonight, giving them an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
James Shields will be taking the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight. He has struggled this season through 29 starts, posting a 6-15 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9 with a 7.0 K/9 through 182.1 innings. Shields has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .266 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. The Angels feature plenty of high upside options throughout their lineup, and they are likely to go overlooked on this slate, making them a top tournament stacking option.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Perez is only hitting .205 over his last 10 games, but he owns three home runs over that span. He also owns 86% hard-hit and 66% fly ball rates with a 104 mph exit velocity over his last five games. He owns a .443 slugging percentage and a .214 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018, as well.
Turner has dominated left-handed pitching this season, posting a .584 slugging percentage and a .236 ISO against lefties. Turner is also hitting .294 with a .559 slugging percentage and a .987 OPS over his last 10 games. Turner owns 57% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Voit owns a .294 average with four home runs over his last 10 games. He also possesses 47% hard-hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Voit has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.018 wOBA and 0.083 ISO differentials against righties.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Eflin has struggled at times this season, posting a 9-6 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 20 starts. He has posted a 1.1 HR/9 and an 8.3 K/9 through 111 innings, as well. Eflin has also flashed tremendous upside, recently scoring as high as 25.6 DK points in a game. He’s a sizeable underdog in this game, but it is set at only 7 runs, and his opponents own an implied run total of only 3.9 runs tonight.
Eflin gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking last in team wOBA. Eflin has found success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .226 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .277 wOBA. The Mets simply do not possess an offense that is likely to dominate Eflin tonight. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues because of the smaller slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Dozier has been on fire, hitting .350 with a .725 slugging percentage and a 1.097 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 61% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Dozier has been a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, as well, boasting a 0.106 ISO differential against righties.
Dozier gets a matchup against Jose Berrios, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .235 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA. Dozier is hitting fourth in the Kansas City lineup, and he has been a safe option, who comes with tremendous upside. He can be used in all leagues.
d’Arnaud is only hitting .188 with a .313 slugging percentage and a .628 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s a player that can always be considered against left-handed pitching, though, as he owns 0.151 wOBA and 0.189 ISO differentials against lefties.
d’Arnaud gets a matchup against Gio Gonzalez, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .276 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .348 wOBA. He’s hitting first in the Giants lineup, and he has been a relatively consistent option. d’Arnaud can be considered in all leagues tonight.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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