Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove looked good in his first start, scoring 16 DK points over 5.2 innings. He recorded 7 strikeouts while allowing 3 earned runs. Musgrove’s numbers are similar to what he posted in 2019, although he won’t be able to keep up his strikeout rate. Still, he posted a 4.24 xFIP with a 22.1% strikeout rate over 88.1 home innings in 2019. He threw 99 pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals, suggesting he’s warmed up and will throw deep into this game if he’s pitching well.
Musgrove gets a tough matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. They don’t strike out at a high rate and they have one of the higher team wOBA’s on the slate. Musgrove is also a +133 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Brewers an implied team total of 4.7 runs. This will keep Musgrove’s ownership down, but he performed well in a loss in his last start. He doesn’t need a massive game to hit value, but he boasts tremendous upside throwing 90+ pitches.
Jason Castro
I will continue to live and die by Castro. If you thought this year would be any different, you were wrong. He’s only hitting .222 early this season but already owns a home run. He’s also at his best against left-handed pitching. In 2019, Castro hit .254 with a .497 slugging percentage, .851 OPS, and .244 ISO against right-handed pitching. He enters this game with .254 wOBA and .216 ISO differentials against righties, as well.
Castro gets a great matchup against Justin Dunn. The latter has only thrown four games in the MLB, but his 8.15 xFIP is uninspiring. The sample size is too small to trust and Dunn will likely find success at the MLB level at some point in his career. He struggled with his command in 2019, though, which could put him in a bad spot throughout this game. Castro is only expected to hit eighth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, but he’s a catcher that often goes overlooked and comes with plenty of power in his bat.
C.J. Cron
Cron will likely garner some ownership tonight, but I’ll likely be overweight on him. He’s hitting .235 with a .647 slugging percentage and a 1.028 OPS through 5 games this season. Cron dominated left-handed pitching in 2019 posting a .274 average with a .493 slugging percentage .818 OPS, and .218 ISO. He brings .093 wOBA and .113 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Cron gets a plus matchup against Danny Duffy tonight. HE allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .249 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA in 2019. He also saw his HR/9 increase to 1.51 against righties. Cron will hit fourth in the Detroit Tigers offense and he’s far too cheap tonight. If you want less ownership, Miguel Cabrera is a great pivot here.
Max Kepler
Kepler hit two home runs in his first game of the season, but only has one hit in his last three games. Surprisingly, he was more consistent against lefties in 2019, although he was more powerful against righties. Kepler hit for a .236 average with a .517 slugging percentage, .845 OPS, and .281 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He owns a .075 ISO differential against righties, as well.
Kepler gets a matchup against Daniel Ponce de Leon tonight. He looked outstanding against left-handed batters in 2019, holding them to a .164 average with a .209 slugging percentage and a .242 wOBA,. There’s very little reason to believe he can sustain those numbers, though. Kepler is expected to lead off for Minnesota, and he may go a bit overlooked after struggling in his last few games.
Jorge Soler
Soler has been cold to start the season, hitting for a .176 average through 5 games. Still, he owns two home runs in those contests. He found plenty of success against left-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .259 average with a .517 slugging percentage, .869 OPS, and .259 ISO. Soler can find success against anyone, though, as he features similar splits against right- and left-handed pitching in his career.
He gets an interesting matchup against Matt Boyd, who looked lost in his first start this season. Boyd struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He allowed a ridiculous 2.91 HR/9 at home against righties in 2019. Soler is currently expected to hit second in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he boasts elite power. He’s surprisingly cheap and comes with as much upside as anyone on this slate.
SuperDraft
Luis Arraez (1.9x)
Arraez has only played in 3 games this season, hitting for a .417 average, although he doesn’t have any extra-base hits. He looked elite against right-handed pitching throughout the 2019 season. Arraez hit .355 with a .488 slugging percentage, .887 OPS, and .132 ISO against righties last year. He also boasts .059 wOBA and .108 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Arraez gets a matchup against Daniel Ponce de Leon, which has been outlined under the Max Kepler recommendation. Arraez is expected to hit seventh in the Minnesota Twins lineup. While that isn’t an elite position, Minnesota boasts an elite offense and Arraez gets a 1.9x multiplier on SuperDraft. The multiple is too much to avoid in GPPs.
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