Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel has thrown well this season. He’s allowed only 10 earned runs over 29.1 innings while striking out 16 batters. He owns a 3.97 xFIP and a 4.37 SIERA through 5 starts. Keuchel’s strikeout rate only sits at 13.6% but he’s expected to see positive regression as he boasts a 10.3% swinging-strike rate in 2020. He’s an elite option against left-handed batters, posting a 2.46 xFIP against them in 2019. He’s been slightly better at home, but his road numbers are far from concerning.
Keuchel gets a great matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Keuchel is a -112 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Cubs an implied team total of 4.7 runs. He has been a consistent option this season, although he has lacked upside overall. With that being said, he posted 26.2 fantasy points against the Milwaukee Brewers and is due for positive strikeout regression. If he can find extra strikeouts in this game, he comes with plenty of upside for this pitching slate.
Wilmer Flores
I’m going back to the well with Flores tonight. He’s hitting for a .324 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .927 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three home runs and nine RBIs in those games, as well. As I stated yesterday, “Flores dominated left-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .337 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .982 OPS. He also recorded a .405 wOBA to go along with a .279 ISO against left-handed pitching last year.”
Flores gets a great matchup against Robbie Ray on this slate. Ray struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .241 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. Flores is hitting fourth in the San Francisco Giants lineup tonight. Initially, I figured the Giants would be one of the higher owned stacks on the slate because of their recent success, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Flores has found plenty of success in recent games, and there’s little reason to believe that won’t continue tonight.
Ketel Marte
Marte has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .381 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .852 OPS. He also owns three extra-base hits, six RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Marte looked great against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .328 average with a .578 slugging percentage and a .976 OPS. He also recorded a .405 wOBA and a .251 ISO against righties in 2019.
Marte gets a plus matchup against Logan Webb, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .272 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA throughout his career. He has also given up a .287/.426/.345 line in San Francisco. Marte is expected to hit second in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. He comes with a solid combination of power and speed, and he’s an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Eloy Jimenez
Jimenez is hitting for a .359 average with a .744 slugging percentage and a 1.119 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 home runs and 11 RBIs over that span, as well. Jimenez has posted a .256 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .792 OPS against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He has also recorded a .331 wOBA and a .225 ISO against righties.
Jimenez gets a matchup against Jon Lester tonight. Lester was a reverse splits pitcher last season but still allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .340 wOBA. He gave up a .318/.444/.331 line at home in 2019, as well. Jimenez is expected to hit fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball in recent weeks, and Jimenez will see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points tonight. He’s an elite option.
Austin Slater
Over his last 10 games, Slater is hitting for a .375 average with a .844 slugging percentage and a 1.317 OPS. He owns 6 extra-base hits (four home runs), five RBIs, and five stolen bases over that span. Similarly to Flores, this is what I posted yesterday. “Slater looked great against left-handed pitching in 2019, ending the season with a .275 average, .475 slugging percentage, and .838 OPS. He also posted a .355 wOBA and a .200 ISO against lefties last season.“
Slater gets an interesting matchup against Robbie Ray tonight. Ray has struggled against right-handed batters but could be one of the higher owned pitchers on this slate. Slater will lead off for the San Francisco Giants, and he has been one of the top hitters in the MLB in recent games. It’s shocking Slater is projected for low ownership but he makes an elite option tonight.
SuperDraft
Hunter Pence (1.65x)
Pence has been ice cold recently. He’s hitting for a .152 average with a .394 slugging percentage and a .594 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted three extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs in those games. Pence looked great against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .327 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a 1.015 OPS. He recorded a .416 wOBA and a .309 ISO against lefties last season, as well.
Pence gets a matchup against Robbie Ray, which has already been outlined in the Wilmer Flores recommendation. Pence is hitting sixth in the San Francisco Giants lineup tonight. He’s a high upside option, who gets a 1.65x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a player that will go overlooked on this slate, but he makes an elite option in this matchup.
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