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MLB DFS – Bales’ Top GPP Plays (9/23/20)

Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here

 

Alex Young

Young has seen mixed results through 14 games (6 starts) in 2020, allowing 27 runs (25 earned runs) while striking out 34 batters over 41.1 innings. He owns a 5.15 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA to go along with his 5.44 ERA this season. His strikeout rate sits at only 18.7% although he boasts an 11.2% swinging-strike rate in 2020. Young has found more success at home, where his xFIP drops to 4.56 through 17.2 innings. He possesses a similar xFIP against either handedness this season, though. 

Young gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking last in team wOBA. Young is a  -146 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Rangers an implied team total of 4.4 runs. He hasn’t flashed a ton of upside this season but this will be arguably his best opportunity for strikeouts on the season. There are a number of elite pitching options, including Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Kenta Maeda, and others that will garner ownership, as it looks to be a day to spend up on both starting pitchers. That will keep Young’s ownership low and allow you to go a different route in your GPP lineups. 

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo is only hitting for a .250 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .703 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run), three RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. On the season, Rizzo has posted a .222 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .774 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also owns a .326 wOBA and a .222 ISO against righties in 2020. 

Rizzo gets a matchup against Trevor Williams tonight. Williams has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .276 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA this season. He’s also given up a .253/.470/.330 line to his opponents in Pittsburgh. Rizzo is expected to hit second in the Chicago Cubs lineup and he’s far too cheap for this good of a matchup. He also comes with plenty of upside, although it hasn’t been on display often in 2020. He’s an elite tournament option for a team that boasts one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. 

Alec Bohm

Bohm has caught fire in recent games, posting a .343 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .922 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts two extra-base hits (one home run), three RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Bohm has been better against right-handed pitching this season, recording a .349 average with a .477 slugging percentage and a .892 OPS. He also enters this game with a .388 wOBA and a .128 ISO against righties in 2020. 

Bohm gets a great matchup against Erick Fedde tonight. Fedde has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .290 average with a .570 slugging percentage and a .400 wOBA. He’s also given up a .282/.423/.349 line at home in 2020. Bohm is expected to hit third in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup with Rhys Hoskins injured. He’s far too cheap on this slate and can be considered in all leagues, although he’s an elite GPP option with his current ownership projection. 

Max Kepler

Kepler has recorded a .286 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .839 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts four extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs. Kepler is also hitting for a .265 average with a .549 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. He also owns a .383 wOBA and a .283 ISO against righties this season. 

Kepler gets a plus matchup against Casey Mize, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .280 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a .408 wOBA this season. Kepler is only expected to hit sixth in the Minnesota Twins lineup, although it’s one of the highest upside offenses on the slate. He has scored  22 and 28 fantasy points in his last 2 games, allowing us to play him as he’s heating up before he’s on a full-blown hot streak. 

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo is quietly hitting for a .395 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .939 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded two extra-base hits (one home run), one RBI, and one stolen base over that span. Verdugo has posted a .319 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .916 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He possesses a .387 wOBA and a .224 ISO against righties in 2020, as well. 

Verdugo gets an interesting matchup against Dean Kremer. Kremer has thrown limited innings in the MLB, holding left-handed batters to a .111 average with a .222 slugging percentage and a .239 wOBA. He’s due for massive regression against lefties, though. Verdugo is expected to lead off for the Boston Red Sox tonight. He has found plenty of success at home in 2020 and he’s an outstanding option on this slate. 

 

SuperDraft

D.J. Stewart (1.8x)

Stewart continues to see mixed results, posting a .182 average with a .303 slugging percentage and a .611 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded two extra-base hits (one home run) and seven RBIs in those games. Stewart has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he’s hitting for a .237 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a .984 OPS against righties in 2020. He also boasts a .416 wOBA and a .339 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. 

Stewart gets a good matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .214 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .291 wOBA this season. He’s a pitcher that has struggled with power, adding to Stewart’s upside. Stewart is expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup tonight and he gets an elite 1.8x multiplier on SuperDraft. He was the player that offered here last night and I’m going back to the well in the same situation. 

 

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