Welcome to Ronnie’s Run Down! This column looks at some fascinating matchups and facts that might pique the interest of the reader as that day’s games are reviewed. This is just my attempt at creating come compelling thought on any given day. There are nine innings in baseball, and nine points in my daily run down.
- Kevin Gausman has one of the worst fourseam fastballs in the Majors. In fact, he ranks 7th worst with a -8.6 wFA on the year. That’s a huge problem for Gausman since the throws the pitch 58.5% of the time. Gausman pitches today at home against the Miami Marlins. The hitter to watch in this matchup is Brian Anderson. The Miami outfielder has a 3.7 wFA and he’s making 40.5% HC in his last 13 games.
- Gerrit Cole ranks 2nd in the AL with a 34.2% strikeout rate and he’s 3rd with a 2.96 SIERA. In his last 4 starts he has a very good 6.0 K/BB and a 0.0% HR/FB. He’s only giving up a 25.8% HC in the span. His opponent tonight, the Colorado Rockies, have an 81 wRC+ in their last 7 games and on the road this season they rank 24th in the Majors with a -31.6 wRAA.
- Justin Upton is leading all of baseball in the last 7 days with a .625 ISO. That ISO is thanks to a 47.4% HC and a 57.1 HR/FB. In that time Upton has more home runs (4) than singles (3).
- Over the last week no hitter has more home runs than the Braves Ronald Acuna with 6. Acuna has a 57.7% HC in 9 games, and he’s leading the AL with 0.8 fWAR. Tonight he faces Jose Urena of the Miami Marlins. Urena has a 78 ERA+ on the season and he’s given up 10 runs and 3 home runs in his last 10.1 innings.
- Of the 12 hitters with at least a .390 wOBA on the season, only Jose Ramirez has a below average BABIP at .276. Ramirez is 2nd in the Majors with a .329 ISO and he’s baseball’s fWAR leader at 7.9. He’s not just a power guy, he currently leads the AL in stolen bases with 27. He also has a top glove at the hot corner, he’s 3rd among all third baseman with 7.5 dRAA.
- Chris Davis has a 60.7% strikeout rate in his last 28 PA. Davis is arguably the least valuable hitter in the game right now. He has a career high 36.5% strikeout rate on the year with a very low .141 ISO. He’s slashing .158/.242/.299 in route to a -2.4 fWAR. He’s just not catching up to the fastball anymore. Going into 2017 he had a career 53.3 wFA, in the last two seasons he has just a -16.1 wFA.
- Junior Guerra throws primarily two pitches, a fourseam and a sinker. His sinker he uses 31.3% of the time and it has been worth a very poor -5.5 wSI. The Cubs have two hitters that hit the sinker well, Javier Baez and Ian Happ. Baez leads the team with a 7.2 wSI, and he hits the fourseam well with a 8.2 wFA. Happ isn’t far behind Baez with a 5.7 wSI.
- Matt Carpenter is the only hitter with at least 300 PA this season that has not grounded into a double play. No hitter has gone an entire season without grounding into a double play (min 150 games) since Craig Biggio in 1997. Only three players have ever played at least 150 games without grounding into a double play, Biggio, Dick McAuliffe (1968), and Augie Galan (1935).
- The hottest second baseman in the Majors right now might just by Logan Forsythe. The Minnesota second bagger leads all AL keystoners with 189 wRC+ over the last week. In that time he has a 47.6% HC and just a 4.8% SC. He’s also striking out at just a 4.0% rate. Forsythe steps in tonight against the Pirates Chris Archer. Archer has a 5.51 xFIP in his last 3 starts and and 11.0% walk rate.