We’re coming off of an unfortunate loss with our NBA PrizePicks play on Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo handled business with 44 points, easily hitting the over. Tyus Jones, who I felt was much riskier, failed to hit the over. He ended with only 6 points, shooting 2/12 from the field. We’re shifting sports and sites for this Monday’s play, as we’ll be focusing on a play I love for MLB on Monkey Knife Fight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies game.
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2/2 More or Less – San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies
Alex Wood under 4.5 strikeouts
I’m a big fan of Alex Wood, but this is the perfect spot to avoid him. He’s been throwing extremely well this season, recording a 3-2 record with a 3.60 ERA. He also boasts a 3.01 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for some positive regression.
There a two key factors for his strikeout total on this slate, though. First, he doesn’t pitch deep into games. He hasn’t thrown more than 5.1 innings in any game this season, even though he got to 101 pitches in his last start.
Second, he gets a terrible matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight. Wood’s a solid strikeout option, but he’s far from dominant. The Rockies enter this game with a league-low 14.5% strikeout rate at home against left-handed pitching. They also rank 10th in walk percentage at home against lefties this season.
I’ll be on plenty of Wood’s overs throughout the season, and I have been earlier already. This isn’t the time to take him, though, as the matchup is as bad as any in the league.
Antonio Senzatela under 2.5 strikeouts
Senzatela continues to be one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the MLB. He strictly throws for contact, specifically ground balls. He enters this game with an almost unheard of 6.2% strikeout rate this season. Truthfully, I don’t see how this rate could possibly stay this low throughout the season, but we only need it for this game.
Unsurprisingly, Senzatela’s strikeout rate dips at home throughout his career. Furthermore, it’s sitting under 5% in Coors this season.
The Colorado right-hander gets a terrible matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They strike out at one of the lowest rates in the MLB against right-handed pitching. They’re also striking out at the lowest rate of any team on the slate over the last 14 days. As if that isn’t enough, Senzatela threw against the Giants in his last game, recording only 1 strikeout over 3.2 innings. That game was in San Francisco, and now the Giants will benefit from throwing in Colorado.
Bet Alex Wood “less than” 4.5 strikeouts and Antonio Senzatela “less than” 2.5 strikeouts to win 2.5x your buy-in