Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 14)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

Cash games are relatively simple at quarterback this weekend. You’re plugging in Taysom Hill and moving on. He scored nearly 30 DK points with 4 interceptions last week. He recorded 101 rushing yards on 11 carries, and he’s still priced under $6k. Hill also gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets. They feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and Hill should have no issues piling up stats with his versatility in this game. He boasts arguably the best rushing floor of any quarterback, and he’s the clear option that will allow you to spend money elsewhere.

If you aren’t interested in playing Hill in cash, you’re likely moving slightly below him with Cam Newton. Newton also has a rushing floor, recording a rushing touchdown in each of his 3 games with the Carolina Panthers this game. With that being said, he threw for 92 yards on 21 attempts against the Miami Dolphins last week. He gets a significantly better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this week, although I see very little reason to shift from Hill to Newton for extremely similar price tags on this slate.

GPP

Arguably my favorite tournament quarterback on this slate is Dak Prescott. The Washington Football Team’s struggled with their pass defense for the majority of the season. Prescott comes with tremendous upside, as he continues to see 40+ pass attempts per game. He’s flashed 30 DK point upside while throwing only 2 touchdowns in recent games, and Prescott is far too cheap on this type of slate. Justin Herbert is another elite option who’s been throwing the ball quite a bit throughout the season. The Los Angeles Chargers could be without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which could lead Herbert to lose some ownership. He’s a player that boasts potential regardless of his receiving group, as they still have some weapons. Herbert won’t come cheap, but he should throw the ball plenty this weekend, and he gets an elite matchup against the New York Giants.

Another quarterback that could go overlooked is Lamar Jackson. He’s the focal point of the entire Baltimore Ravens offense, and he gets a reasonable matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Jackson scored only 13.4 DK points against the Cleveland Browns a couple of weeks ago, which will push away any game log watchers. He saw 17 carries in that game, though, and it’s unlikely Jackson throws 4 more interceptions. He boasts slate-breaking upside, and he’s always an elite GPP pivot if you can get him at low ownership. Josh Allen, Taylor Heinicke, and Patrick Mahomes are other quarterbacks I’m considering here.

Running Backs

Cash

There are several elite ways to go at running back in cash games this weekend. It starts with Austin Ekeler, though. He’s going to take on a massive role with Keenan Allen out and Mike Williams questionable. Even if Williams plays, that won’t change Ekeler’s role. He boasts an elite role in the red zone, and he’s consistently seeing plenty of targets in the passing game. Ekeler boasts an elite built-in floor, and he should find plenty of success in a great matchup against the New York Giants. Alvin Kamara is another high-priced option that makes sense this weekend. Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery have been ruled out, meaning Kamara should see as many snaps as he can possibly handle. He’s a versatile running back, and adding Kamara would get you nearly all of the New Orleans Saints’ offensive production in an elite matchup against the New York Jets.

There are three running backs that could garner quite a bit of ownership around $6k. Antonio Gibson is my top option at the moment. J.D. McKissic is questionable to play, as he hasn’t been clear through the concussion protocol yet. If he’s out, Gibson will continue his massive role for the Washington Football Team. If he’s playing, I’ll likely slide to Saquon Barkley for the same price. He saw 9 targets with Mike Glennon at quarterback last week, and we could see similar usage in this game. Barkley also gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who force their opponents to run against them early in games. The other option around this price is Josh Jacobs, who will see an elite role in the Las Vegas Raiders offense with Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard out. Jacobs is the featured red zone back, and he saw 9 targets last week. He boasts a massive role without the ridiculous price tag. If Melvin Gordon is held out, Javonte Williams will become a must-start as well.

GPP

If people aren’t going to use Leonard Fournette or Joe Mixon at running back, I’ll consider both of them. Fournette is taking on a massive role in the Tampa Bay Bucs offense, and the Buffalo Bills generally don’t let you beat them through the air. He could continue to see plenty of dump-offs while maintaining his red zone role in what could be the highest-scoring game of the slate. Mixon is a game-time decision this week, but he will see another workhorse role if he’s healthy. I’m not overly concerned with his matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Mixon posted 25+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s always an elite option at low ownership because of his role in the Cincinnati Bengals offense.

If Melvin Gordon is in, Javonte Williams is a player I’ll look at in GPPs. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, and he flashed in a workhorse role last weekend. The only issue is the Denver Broncos’ obsession with getting Gordon touches over the rookie. Gordon playing should help lower Williams’ ownership, though, and he could continue his breakout in this game. Cordarrelle Patterson gets an interesting matchup against the Carolina Panthers, and he’s been arguably the best player for the Atlanta Falcons this season. He can contribute in several ways because of his versatility, making it difficult to completely shut him down. Patterson certainly comes with risk in that offense, but he’s a great option in GPPs on this slate. Depending on injury news, Eli Mitchell and Ezekiel Elliott are two players to keep an eye on this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Cash games start with the Los Angeles Chargers at receiver. Keenan Allen’s already been ruled out, while Mike Williams is questionable. If he’s starting, he’ll be locked into cash games. He’ll take on a massive role in the LA offense, specifically in the red zone. If Williams is out, Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer will be moved into the cash conversation. Of the two, I slightly prefer Palmer, although I don’t have any issues with either without Williams or Allen. Chris Godwin is another player that is simply mispriced. He’s taking on a massive role without Antonio Brown in the lineup. Godwin’s averaging 21.7 DK points per game over his last 6 games. Although I don’t love the Tampa Bay Bucs passing attack this week, Godwin is far too cheap, and he can be locked into cash games.

There are a few other great cash game options at receiver this week. DJ Moore’s looked outstanding with Cam Newton at quarterback, scoring 17.3 and 16 DK points in those 2 games. Moore gets a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and he should continue to see plenty of targets. Hunter Renfrow is another great option for a similar price tag. He gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in a game where the Las Vegas Raiders should be throwing from start to finish. Renfrow’s scored 17+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s looked significantly better since the injury to Darren Waller. Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are two higher-priced options that can be used in cash games, while Elijah Moore is a bit cheaper, and he can be considered if he’s starting.

GPP

CeeDee Lamb is arguably my favorite receiver on this slate, and he’s likely to go completely overlooked. He’s a direct pivot off of Chris Godwin, and Lamb’s found plenty of success when given full snaps. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Football Team, who’s struggled with air yards this season. Lamb makes an elite stacking option with Dak Prescott in GPPs, although he can also be considered as a one-off. On the other side of this game, Terry McLaurin makes an interesting option. He’s coming off of two terrible games, and he’s also priced around Godwin this weekend. McLaurin boasts tremendous upside, although Washington hasn’t been throwing nearly as much in recent weeks. This game has sneaky shootout potential, giving both offenses plenty of upside.

Jarvis Landry recently posted 19.1 DK points against the Baltimore Ravens in his last game. He’s a solid YAC option, and that’s where Baltimore’s defense struggles. Baker Mayfield struggled in that game, and Landry comes with more upside for a surprisingly low price tag. He’s a great option in this matchup. Laquon Treadwell’s seen a bigger role in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense in recent weeks, seeing 13 targets over his last 2 games. He’s posted 9.3 and 10.2 DK points in those games, and Treadwell is near the minimum price. He’s a solid salary relief option on this slate. Other receivers that can be considered in GPPs include DK Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Brandin Cooks.