Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 2 – UPDATED)

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Quarterbacks

Cash

Quarterback is an interesting position in terms of cash this week. There are several players I love on this slate, but there are only three that truly stand out for cash games. The first is Justin Herbert. He saw mixed results against a difficult Washington Football Team last week. The most important aspect of that game was that Herbert wasn’t pressured the way he was in 2020. If his line can keep him upright in the pocket this week, he gets an elite option against an improving, yet bad, Dallas Cowboys defense. The other top player is Josh Allen. We saw him struggle last week, and he gets another tough matchup against the Miami Dolphins this week. With that being said, Allen boasts an outstanding floor because of his rushing potential. He saw 36% of Buffalo’s rush attempt last week, giving him an edge even in a tough matchup.

The final option is Dak Prescott. I have a bet on him to lead the NFL in passing yards, and he saw 58 pass attempts last week. He consistently called his own number in RPOs against the Tampa Bay Bucs, and I expect more of the same against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys are small underdogs in a game set at 55.5 points, suggesting he could throw 45+ times once again this weekend. Prescott isn’t projecting for as much ownership as Herbert or Allen, according to our Projections Portal, but he’s still an outstanding cash game option at this point.

GPP

With the trio above soaking up ownership, there are several other quarterbacks that can be considered in tournaments. Kyler Murray is coming off of a massive game against the Tennessee Titans. He gets another solid matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who I’m not shying away from. Most importantly, Murray only ran the ball 5 times for 20 yards and 1 touchdown last week because the game was out of hand early. He boasts tremendous upside if this game stays close throughout. Another quarterback with elite rushing potential is Jalen Hurts. He looked outstanding last week, and he gets a tougher matchup this week. Still, some are suggesting Hurts has true MVP potential, and his rushing keeps his floor relatively high.

The final two quarterbacks I’m looking at for tournaments are facing off against each other this week – Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill. The Seahawks have a new offensive play-caller, and they’re utilizing play action significantly more to take the pressure off of Wilson. That resulted in 254 yards and 4 touchdowns on only 23 pass attempts last week. I’m expecting another efficient game for Wilson, as he takes on Tennessee, who Kyler Murray dominated in Week 1. If the Titans can keep this game close, Wilson boasts the QB1 ceiling this weekend. On the other side, I’m expecting Tannehill and the Titans offense to find more success than they did last week. Even with struggles, he scored 17 DK points (rushing touchdown), and he quietly comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. We saw Carson Wentz find some success against Seattle last week, and Tannehill could be in store for a major bounce back this weekend.

Update

I’m shifting almost all of my cash game focus onto Justin Herbert. He’s in an elite matchup, and he’s the top option, as we mentioned on our Weekly NFL Podcast. Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are still in play here, although I feel they’re clearly behind Herbert. The only other quarterback that I’d mention in cash at this point is Tom Brady, who is seemingly gaining steam as we head toward the weekend. Again, he isn’t my preferred option, although I understand it with Tampa Bay projecting for plenty of points this weekend.

With my cash focus currently on Herbert, Prescott is an option I’m willing to highly consider in GPPs, even if he gets some ownership. I love both sides of Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill. Wilson’s the safer option of the duo, although both make outstanding tournament options in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. I’m looking at two quarterbacks with tremendous rushing potential in GPPs, as well – Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. Both have the ability to throw for 300+ yards or run for 100+ yards, giving them plenty of upside.

Running Backs

Cash

You can’t just plug-and-play the most expensive running backs this week, making this position much more interesting. At this point, I don’t care about Christian McCaffrey’s ownership projection. Until he prices himself out, McCaffrey will be the best cash running back on any slate. He saw 30 touches (9 targets) last week, and there are rumors that Sam Darnold’s new motto in Carolina is “when in doubt, find McCaffrey.” That seemed to be the case last week, and he’s the safest player in the NFL right now. Najee Harris struggled in his first game as a pro, but the volume was there. He saw 16 carries with 3 targets in a low-scoring game against the Buffalo Bills. He gets a better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this week, and he’s a bit underpriced for a player that played 58 of 58 snaps in Week 1. His workhorse role makes him a safe option.

Joe Mixon is another player that saw a workhorse role in Week 1. He played 78% of the offensive snaps, turning 33 touches into 150 yards and 1 touchdown. The Cincinnati Bengals said they wanted Mixon to be a workhorse this season, and he actually missed a couple of plays with a small injury last week. He’s locked into a massive role, and sometimes that’s all you need in cash games. Austin Ekeler saw somewhat of limited snaps (58%) in Week 1 after struggling with an injury throughout the week. He wasn’t a factor in their passing game, which is an outlier, as he’s one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Most importantly, even in limited snaps, Ekeler led the NFL in red zone carries (7). He’s somewhat of a cheaper way to get red zone and PPR value at the running back position.

GPP

This top paragraph in the GPP section will be running backs that toe the line of cash game plays, as the ownership could be a bit spread out this week. I prefer Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook in GPPs because I rank them behind CMC, and I’m not likely to spend all the way up for two running backs this week. Nick Chubb is one of my favorite options on this slate, although I’m struggling to see where he gains ownership at this point. The major concern is that he only played 53% of the snaps last week, although he saw 6 red zone carries. With the Cleveland Browns being sizeable favorites in this game, I’d expect him to play through the fourth quarter over Hunt, although his lack of a clear role adds uncertainty to his floor. Darrell Henderson saw 94% of the snaps for the Los Angeles Rams, showing this isn’t truly a two-back system at the moment. His price tag doesn’t represent a workhorse role, though. There’s a bit of uncertainty as Sony Michel could see extra snaps this weekend. Finally, Ezekiel Elliott is entirely too cheap for what we know he can do. The Tampa Bay Bucs sold out to stop the run last week, and Elliott could take on a larger role in the game plan this weekend. With that being said, his risk comes with the fact that Dallas feels completely comfortable allowing Prescott to throw the ball 60 times.

There are a few more options that should solely be considered in tournaments at this point. David Montgomery lost snaps to Damien Williams last week, as the former only played 59% of the offensive snaps. It’s clear he’s the top option, though, and this game has a -1 spread in favor of the Chicago Bears. With that game projected to stay closer, Montgomery could have a bigger role. Damien Harris was the clear lead back for the New England Patriots, as he totaled 117 yards on 25 touches. He gets a matchup against the New York Jets, who Christian McCaffrey dominated last week. The big issue is that Harris fumbled late in the game last week, costing the Patriots a chance to win. They could make a statement by limiting his role or they could show their confidence in him by letting him handle a massive role again. It’s a risky situation. Miles Sanders, Elijah Mitchell, Chase Edmonds, and Javonte Williams are all interesting options in tournaments, as well.

Update

There are two running backs that stick out above the rest in cash games at this point – Christian McCaffrey and Najee Harris. CMC is the safest running back in the NFL, while Harris is entirely too cheap for his role in the Pittsburgh offense. Similar to what’s written above, Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler make interesting options as the RB3 on this slate. I’m still figuring out what to do with Kenyan Drake with Josh Jacobs out. There are reports that Peyton Barber will handle the majority of the workload for Las Vegas, although I’m not entirely sold on that. You can get in our free Discord here, as I’ll be updating what I want to do with the Raiders later in the week.

The paragraphs above are still spot on with how I’m looking at running back this weekend. I want to point out that I’m feeling extremely confident with Nick Chubb and Damien Harris, who are two of my favorite options, especially on DraftKings where they could lose ownership because of their lack of receptions.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Wide receiver is wide open this week. Allen Robinson is one of the most obvious options. He saw 11 targets last week, and he’s far too cheap for that type of workload. He features a low aDOT, which hurts his upside, although I’m expecting him to see a slightly different role this weekend. Robinson also gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. DeAndre Hopkins is the most expensive option on the slate, and for good reason. He saw 8 targets last week, posting a 6/83/2 line. He wasn’t needed essentially in the second half of the game, though, or he could’ve finished as the WR1 on the slate. Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Godwin are three more receivers with large roles in their offenses that can be considered in cash games.

For the section paragraph of this section, I’m focusing on one game that I specifically want to look at. If you’re using Justin Herbert at quarterback, it makes sense to pair him with Keenan Allen. There was a lot of talk of Mike Williams taking over the WR1 slot in this offense, but Allen saw 13 targets in Week 1, and it was never realistic that he was going to lose his role. On the other side of this game, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb make great options. Michael Gallup is out for the time being, and Cooper and Lamb combined for 31 targets last week. With them being similar prices, I slightly prefer Cooper at this point, although you won’t truly go wrong with either. This game is expected to shoot out, meaning you can use several receivers if they fit your lineup well.

GPP

One of my favorite GPP options at receiver is A.J. Brown, who is coming off of somewhat of a down game against the Arizona Cardinals. Brown salvaged his day with a touchdown, although he and Julio Jones struggled mightily in their first game together. I expect the Titans to spend the week fixing their issues, and they’ll find significantly more success this week. Brown and Jones can both be considered, although I prefer the former. On the other side of this game, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both coming off of successful games in Week 1. Lockett recorded 2 touchdowns, while Metcalf posted 1. Once again, both of them can be considered, and I side slightly with Metcalf at the moment.

Deebo Samuel saw 60% of the San Francisco 49ers air yards in Week 1. He looked elite, and it seems as if he’s the WR1 in San Fran with Brandon Aiyuk in the doghouse. Although I understand the risk with Samuel, he does come with tremendous upside because of his YAC ability. Robert Woods saw fewer snaps than Van Jefferson last week, and we can take advantage of that perception happening again this week. It should keep his ownership low, but Woods comes with tremendous upside. I like each of the three Cincinnati receivers, ranking them Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, then Tyler Boyd for their price tags. Marquez Callaway was chalk last week, and he’s still extremely cheap. The New Orleans Saints are expected to play in a much closer game this week, yet Callaway is projecting for very little ownership. He’s an outstanding salary relief option in tournaments. Cedrick Wilson is another salary relief option with Gallup injured.

Update

The wide receivers in the Los Angeles/Dallas game – specifically Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb – are great options in cash games, and they’re the trio that you can focus heavily on. Cooper Kupp projects for some of the highest ownership on this slate, although I’m not entirely sold on focusing on him for his price tag. Chris Godwin is arguably the top receiving option for Tampa Bay, and he’s an outstanding option, even in cash games this weekend. Ja’Marr Chase is a bit too cheap, and he’s the salary relief option in cash games for Week 2.

I’m going to use this small paragraph to quickly outline a trio of receivers who are slightly better for GPPs but can also be used in cash games. DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs are the more expensive options, while Allen Robinson is a bit cheaper.

With Odell Beckham Jr. out, Anthony Schwartz makes an interesting option again. He’s questionable, though, and Donovan Peoples-Jones can be considered here is Schwartz is ruled out, as well. My favorite GPP option continues to be A.J. Brown, while either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett can be considered on the other side. Keep in mind, I feel similar about the players written above, so I’m not going to outline them all again. With Deebo Samuel making such an interesting option, you can also consider Devonta Smith on the other side. Furthermore, Brandin Cooks is in a great spot, and he could go a bit overlooked again.