What’s up guys! If you have ever read this article before, you know how it goes, if not, welcome! This is where I build off my game-by-game breakdown, and narrow down the exact 3-4 players I’m targeting in cash games at each position this week. I’m the most transparent person ever, and my goal is that you can basically build the lineup I’m going to be playing after reading this article. Let’s get to it!
1. Aaron Rodgers- This is probably where I’m going to go this weekend, which is funny because I wan’t looking here much at all to start the week. The more I’ve looked at things, the more I see how high Rodgers ceiling truly is given how much they are passing, even if they get out to an early lead. They’re second in the NFL in pass play rate, and their passing usage in the red zone is insane. This Dolphins secondary has been trashed in recent weeks through the air, and I don’t think the price is too much to afford given my two locks of the slate.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick- If you take name out if the picture, and just use the numbers of whoever has played QB for the Buccaneers this season, they would pretty much be the best overall fantasy quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes. There is definitely the the risk of him getting benched if he starts poorly, but they should need to put up points once again given their defense and he’s under $6,000 on DraftKings.
3. Baker Mayfield- I was on this play at the start of the week, and it’s still appealing to me. Mayfield has smashed in good matchups this season, and this is certainly one at home against a Falcons defense we have attacked relentlessly this season. The place you want to attack this defense is over the middle of the field, and Mayfield has shown the ability to and the want to throw over the middle in his short career. I love him at this price, and I don’t think anyone will be on him so it might be better-suited for GPPs.
Top Tier: Todd Gurley/Kareem Hunt- Running Back is extremely interesting to me this week, we don’t have an abundance of strong 7-8K backs like we have in past weeks and we also don’t have the glaring wide receiver value we have seen either. I do expect Melvin Gordon to be owned as well, but if I’m spending up then I’m just jumping up $400 to get Todd Gurley. Gurley’s floor is so high, and I am not worried whatsoever about the “down” game against the Saints.
Kareem Hunt is probably where I will end up looking for my RB1, he has the nuts matchup with the Cardinals run defense and he has averaged over 120 yards from scrimmage over the last four games. The game flow sets up for what should be a Hunt game as well, and his passing game usage is still there should the game be close. His red zone usage is nearing Gurley-like levels, and it’s hard for me to get away from the matchup.
Mid Tier: David Johnson- While Hunt has a great matchup, DJ lines up against the 32nd ranked run-defense according Football Outsiders DVOA, and they’re coming in after a week off that I’m sure they used to continue to help him get involved in this offense. I trust Byron Leftwich to get him the ball after watching his first game calling the offense, and the expected game-script would indicate the first monster game for DJ coming in Week 10.
Low Tier: Dion Lewis- This is the lock of the slate in my opinion, given Lewis’ too-cheap price tag and a great matchup with the Patriots. The Pats have been unable to stop pass-catching running backs this season — see Tarik Cohen — and in a game where Corey Davis will be locked up by Stephon Gillmore we should expect even more work to funnel to Lewis. He’s going to be massively-owned, and it’s worthy, just play him.
Top Tier: Julio Jones- I’m assuming that Michael Thomas will take the large amount of ownership in this pricing tier coming off his monster 200+ yard game last week, but for me I would rather just jump up a few hundred for Julio Jones. This Browns defense is extremely banged up, and even if Denzel Ward plays I don’t see a way he can match up with Julio Jones from a size perspective. On DraftKings, you don’t need him to score a touchdown to crush value and I have a feeling he’s going to easily reach 100 yards this weekend.
Mid Tier: Josh Gordon/Jarvis Landry- I really like this tier this week, with Josh Gordon in an extremely good matchup with Malcom Butler and Jarvis Landry at his lowest price since Week 1. Gordon finally broke off a big play with Brady, and given Butler’s history with the Patriots you don’t think Bill wants to attack him every single play? Landry has a great matchup with Brian Poole, and the place you want to attack this Falcons defense is over the middle of the field.
Low Tier: Marquez Valdes-Scantling- This is the second lock of the slate for me with Geronimo Allison on IR and Randall Cobb hobbled. MVS ran the same amount of pass routes as Cobb last week and Rodgers trust in him should be growing weekly. He’s a burner with 4.3 speed, and the Dolphins are allowing the second most yards after catch in the NFL.
Trey Burton- I absolutely hate tight end this week, which has me focused on Trey Burton at just $3,900 on DraftKings. He hasn’t been seeing tremendous volume, but he has been able to find the end zone regularly and I don’t see his floor/ceiling being any different than guys that are priced $1-1,500 above him.
D/ST Options: Bears, Jets, Rams, Buccaneers
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