Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 11 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 11

QBs RBs WRs Stacks
D. Prescott
C. McCaffery DJ Moore Cowboys
L. Jackson D. Cook Julio Jones Panthers
K. Allen J. Jacobs T. Williams Raiders
D. Carr B. Hill R. Cobb Texans
D. Watson K. Ballage T. Boyd Falcons

 

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
  • Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
    • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
  • Running back is pretty concentrated for me this week but I think there are a ton of ways to get low ownership in stacks which I’ll list below.  But for me this week I’m running a core of:
    • Christian McCaffery (Overexposed)
    • Dalvin Cook (Even with field)
    • Josh Jacobs (I’ll be overexposed)
    • Brian Hill (Slight underexposed compared to field)
    • Telvin Coleman (Even with field)
    • Alvin Kamara (Slightly overexposed)
    • Leonard Fournette (Even with field)
  • Barring any late/injury news, I won’t have ANY other RB’s in my lineups.
  • Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.
    • Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper-Randall Cobb/TJ Hockenson
      • This is my favorite stack of the week.  TE is so weak leaving some room to get #weird.  We know the upside is there for Hockenson and the price tag is cheap enough where we won’t get burned if he doesn’t go off.  Keep in mind he’s only 3.6k and projected for 1.5% ownership.
    • Kyle Allen-DJ Moore-Curtis Samuel/Julio Jones
      • Probably a bit chalky but the prices on these Panthers make it too easy.  Nice pivot off the CMC mega-chalk if all the TD’s end up coming through the air, this stack SMASHES.
    • Derek Carr-Tyrell Williams-Hunter Renfrow/Tyler Boyd
    • Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins-Duke Johnson/Mark Ingram
    • Matt Ryan-Julio Jones-Calvin Ridley/Christian McCaffery

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

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