Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 13 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 13

QBs RBs WRs Stacks
C. Wentz
C. McCaffery D. Adams Buccaneers
P. Mahomes L. Fournette S. Watkins Eagles
L. Jackson S. Barkley DJ Chark Chiefs
K. Murray M. Sanders T. Hill Packers
A. Rodgers L. McCoy C. Kirk Raiders

 

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
  • Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
    • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
  • Running back is finally different this week where I think we NEED to be locking in Christian McCaffery.  He’s priced over $10k yet is projecting as the absolute top value of the slate regardless of position by a fairly sizeable margin.  He’s going to be in over 65% of my lineups.
  • Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.  It’ll be key to get some value stacks in given that I find it to be a priority to get CMC into your lineups.
    • Jameis Winston-Mike Evans / DJ Chark
      • This stack will be too expensive to pair both Evans and Godwin.  I’ll only be pairing one up with Jameis and prefer Evans this week due to the price discount.
    • Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams-Allen Lazard/Saquon Barkley
      • Monitor the wind here but we may be getting Rodgers at very low-ownership.  The Packers implied total is over 25 and Saquon Barkley is very underpriced on the bring back.  This is one of my favorite stacks of the week.  Feel free to replace Lazard with Allison.
    • Carson Wentz-Alshon Jeffery-Miles Sanders/DeVanteParker
      • I’m riding for the Eagles against the Dolphins from a best ball perspective and it’s a perfect spot.  I’m going to be very overexposed to the Eagles this week.
    • Patrick Mahomes – Sammy Watkins – Tyreek Hill/Tyrell Williams
      • Very expensive stack but Sammy Watkins may be the top play of the slate and it seems like he’s going to only be 10-15% owned.
    • Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk- Kenyan Drake/ Brandin Cooks
      • Brandin Cooks on the bring back here is one of my favorite plays of the slate.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

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