Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown (Fanduel and Draftkings)
Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 3 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Cam Newton ($6000 – DK / $8300 – FD) – Although a lot of the DFS Karma staff are considering Cam Newton for cash games in this clash with the Bengals I am going to have to list him as the high tier GPP option for this week as 1.) He has the highest upside of any QB on the slate and 2.) He’s not going to be popular for the most part. It is pretty consensus across the DFS industry to pay down at QB and that is the strategy I will be implementing this week with my other two QB options. But if you feel the need to pay up at QB, Cam Newton should be your guy. This new Panthers offense seems extremely reluctant to throw the ball as CMC has not seen a ton of carries (he has more targets than carriers) and with Newton coming off a week where he completed over 70% of 45 pass attempts I am feeling very confident about his ability through the air as well as on the ground. Newton’s accuracy as a whole seems to be much improved this season, even in the preseason where he completed 68.5% of passes, which seems to have translated over to the regular season where Cam has a 69% completion percentage. With Cam Newton’s price drop on Draftkings, I see where AC’s consideration from cash comes from, Newton is an ELITE play this week on Draftkings and a GPP only option on Fanduel where he is priced much more appropriately.
Mid-Tier: Blake Bortles ($5600 – DK / $6700 – FD) – They go low, we go high! The rest of the DFS Karma squad was hating on me alllll week for my support of Blake Bortles and the type of game I KNEW he would have. If you go back and watch the #GoodKarma podcast from last week you will hear towards the end everyone laughing about the Blake Bortles (aka the GOAT) call and how if you want to find Blake Bortles lineups just look atop the leaderboards. This ended up being the case with a Blake Bortles – Cole – Westbrook stack being the $100,000 lineup in the $44 GPP on Fanduel. Bortles absolutely tore apart the Patriots defense last week and is still extremely underpriced and valued against this Titans defense where the Jags are implied for 24.5 points. The Titans rank out 24th in passing DVOA and 29th in allowed yards per pass. So far this season the Jaguars offensive line leads the league in adjusted sack rate and with the man coverage on guys like Cole – Westbrook – ASJ I really like this as a high upside stack. Fournette has gotten time to heal from his hamstring injury but likely isn’t 100%. Defenses wrongfully focus too much on taking Fournette out of the game which is going to allow Blake Bortles to smash, yet again. Don’t doubt the goat this week and play him in your GPPs. See you atop the leaderboards as the Jaguars stack wins us six figures for the 2nd week in a row.
Week 2 Analysis: The GOAT himself. Blake Bortles is in play this week in a matchup many are calling the greatest QB showdown of all time. Tom Brady. Blake Bortles. It doesn’t get much better than this. The game script seems to be in Bortles favor here barring any insane weather issues from the hurricane. From the reports, I have read the wind isn’t that much of an issue and shouldn’t affect this game as much as you’d think. The flooding is the big problem with the hurricane and I don’t expect this game in Jacksonville to be affected as much. The big development here is Leonard Fournette who has not practiced this week but is supposedly expected to play. I am not buying it. Fournette did not come into the game last week after he got hurt and hamstrings are usually not something teams want take chances on in week 2. If this is the case, TJ Yeldon gets the start as a RB who is more of a pass-catcher than a between the tackles rusher. This is going to lead to a ton of screens (as we saw against the Giants) and will be huge for Bortles yardage. The Patriots implement the “bend but don’t break” strategy where they lock down in the red zone but allow a ton of yards between the 20s. Bortles is going need to throw in this game against Tom Brady and the Pats, with Fournette not close to 100%, I’m taking a shot at 2% owned Bortles in GPP. If you want to chase a TD combo, go with Austin Seferian-Jenkins who will be their go to in the red zone.
Week 1 Analysis: Ahhhhhh. Is it truly NFL season if I am not shoving Blake Bortles down your throat and into your lineups. No, the answer is no. But here we are, approaching week one and Blake Bortles is one of my top PT/$ QB’s on the slate with potential GPP winning upside when played in the proper lineup. Although he will not be my number 1 QB this week in terms of exposure in my DFS lineups, you better bet your bottom dollar that he will be spread out throughout a few of my GPPs. Let’s get into why you are going to play Blake Bortles this Sunday. The first point I want to make here is that I am HUGE on Leonard Fournette this week. The guy is going to go bonkers all throughout this season and I am going to be on the train. With that being said, Fournette’s ability as a rusher completely opens up the passing game, taking a ton of pressure off the formerly turnover prone Bortles. I know what you’re thinking, “Wait a second though, if the Jaguars are going to always run the ball (in 2017 they ran 50% of the time or 7+% over the league average) why would I play the quarterback from that team? Won’t that decrease the volume he’ll see in the passing game.” While volume is king in the NFL (I can’t imagine how many times you’ve heard that before – sorry for that), the Jaguars were actually above 12 other NFL teams in pass attempts per game. With the Jaguars top-5 last year in the amount of plays they run each game it is a result of how long their offense is on the field (thanks #1 defense) that Bortles does see ample opportunities to throw the football. The Giants pass defense as a unit ranked bottom 5 in yards allowed last season and will take some time to get back to 2016 form before I stop targeting them. Bortles price will consistently rise throughout the season (as it did last year) along with his ownership. Take this opportunity to get your Blake (GOAT) Bortles exposure early on in the season.
Low Tier: Ryan Tannehill ($5300 – DK / 6600 – FD) – Outside of my love for Blake Bortles this week I will be looking at 2% owned Ryan Tannehill. Implied for 23.75 points in this game with a Raiders pass defense that is 30th in DVOA and on the road, across country down in Florida. This is an extremely scary spot from the perspective that the Dolphins are one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL and they may not deviate from that game plan too much after going 2-0 but I do believe the Raiders will come out pass heavy and try to move the ball downfield aggressively in the beginning of this game as they are desperate for wins. Frank Gore is not going to be effective this season. I can guarantee that. With Kenyan Drake slowly worked more into the offense I expect a lot of check-downs that can be taken 40-60 yards to the house with the type of big play explosivness he has. Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, DeVante Parker. All big-play guys that can take any deep ball/screen/slant to the house. The only guy who really keeps this offense conservative is Danny Amendola and Frank Gore. In my opinion, Gore getting worked out of the offense, while Amendola hasn’t even gotten over 10 targets while Parker is out, I believe this offense is a lot more dynamic then we have seen. Especially when Mike Gesiki gets worked in this team could really take off. Take a shot at a Dolphins stack this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Ryan Tannehill
High/Mid-Tier: Kareem Hunt ($6,000 – DK / $7900 – FD) – It’s actually unbelievable how underutilized Kareem Hunt is in this Chiefs offense. Hunt salvaged last week with a TD but other than that was just as bad he was in Week 1. This is the God damn week for Hunt and I don’t care if you’re playing him with me or not. He is going to absolutely smash this week, Andy Reid is going to utilize him, and everything will be right in the world. The Chiefs are implied for over 30 points. They are about a touchdown favorite and have a 55 (!!!!!) over under in a matchup with the 49’ers. We know the 49’ers offense has a lot of great pieces and the Chiefs defense is week with the deep ball, but Vegas is telling us the Chiefs is where it is at and we better believe them. Hunt is going to be on the lower owned end of this game with pieces like Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and he has the upside to outscore all of them. The 49ers rank out 22nd in YPC allowed and while Hunt has only 34 carries on the season I believe he’ll see well over 20 touches this Sunday as well as a target spike to start to get him more involved and comfortable with the offense. Hunt’s going to be in that 10-15% range and I think he is one of the locks of the week.
Week 2 Analysis: Another player I am back on in Week 2 is Kareem Hunt. The Steelers and the Chiefs, without a doubt, have the most appealing fantasy options this week and we’ll be looking to differentiate ourselves a bit as we build our GPP rosters. The masses in the industry will be on James Conner who is still vastly underpriced on all sites after seeing 30+ touches in week 1. Kareem Hunt will go overlooked as an option in this game where he will be able to reach his upside with ease if utilized the correct way. For whatever reason, we don’t see enough touches for Hunt and this might not change if the Chiefs continue to see a ton of success in their current offensive scheme. It just doesn’t make sense to me to have one of the most talented three down RB’s in the league and not utilize him. The Steelers were in the bottom 20% of the league in giving up yards to RBs and should continue to struggle this season. I don’t mind the idea of plugging in Conner and Hunt in a Chiefs/Steelers game stack and getting equity in the rushing TDs that will be scored. I also like Hunt’s upside in the passing game where, according to Vegas, the game script will force the Chiefs to throw the ball more often than not. There is a ton to love in this game and the player with the highest upside out of them all is going overlooked. Get exposed.
Week 1 Analysis: KREEEEEM Hunt. With there being SOOOO much RB value this week, it is becoming pretty clear that in large field GPPs you won’t win by playing against 200,000 lineups that are built the same exact way as your lineup is. Here is a short dialogue between a #sharp friend and a not so sharp friend. “Gee whiz Billy! Le’Veon Bell is out! James Conner is a LOCK in all formats!”. “No Travis, the Browns allowed the 2nd least number of yards to RB’s in 2017 while ranking out 4th in DVOA. Travis, if you are really going to play a 20+% owned James Conner against the Browns run defense, which improved since last season, you might as well just give me your $20 instead and I’ll buy us lunch. That would be the +EV move for you over playing James Conner. Le’Veon Bell in week 1 at Cleveland last year rushed 10 times for 32 yards without a TD. Fade Conner in GPP, Travis, fade him.” All jokes aside Conner should be a fade in most of your GPP lineups. With so much value at the RB position I would not even consider him a lock for cash games. With that being said, paying up at RB could pay off huge this week as guys like James Conner, Alex Collins, and Rex Burkhead (chalky options) don’t even sniff the type of upside Kareem Hunt has. The Chargers are the opposite of a funnel defense where they direct the opponent to run the ball on them (25th in the league in DVOA) compared to pass (9th in league DVOA) where they are absolutely elite. With this being Patrick Mahomes coming out season (it is), I believe the production of Kareem Hunt is going to be over-looked in a spot where he could break for a 100+ yard game along with 1-2 TD’s. Hunt absolutely torched the Chargers last season (who led the league in allowed YPC) with a 24/155/2 line and 17/172/1 (not including receiving yards which he added another 62). Hunt loves playing this Chargers team and the way they scheme their defense could be why. Expect a potentially slate-breaking week out of Hunt and make sure to be exposed.
Mid-Tier: Chris Thompson ($6300 – DK / $6500 – FD) – People definitely forget what kind of a beast Chris Thompson was absolutely dominating the receiving game at times last season. In a loss to the Colts last week we saw Thompson get 14 targets which he took for 94 yards in addition to a few rushing attempts. With the Redskins projected to play from behind this week and how Alex Smith loves to check down, I’m surprised I haven’t heard more chatter about Thompson this week. Thompson leads the team with a 28% target share and is essentially the number one option for Alex Smith. Adrian Peterson is going to be stopped by a Packers run D that is clearly aware that when Peterson is on the field, there is a 70%+ chance that the Redskins are going with a run play and vice versa with Thompson. In PPR and ½ PPR formats Thompson is going to be peppered with targets and we shouldn’t be surprised to see him break double digit targets + receptions again this week. With the type of big play upside he has boosted by his high reception floor he is in consideration in all formats and a #lock for me on Draftkings.
Low Tier: Kyle Juszczyk ($4600 – FD / $3100)- #FullbackSZN? Let me get this straight with you. Kyle Jasdffkjaldfjasfdz (lol) is not even remotely close to an optimal play. He is essentially a 3rd string running back behind Alfred Morris and Matt Breida. But let me throw a few numbers at you. Matt Breida played 25 snaps last week. Alfrid Morris played 31 snaps last week. This was in a game the 49ers won. Kyle Juszcyk saw 40 of the 64 snaps last week. And while he did not receive a ton of touches compared to the other too backs (none on the ground) he did see 4 targets in the backfield which was likely a result of taking a reception for 56 yards in week 1. The 49ers are going to be playing from behind in this game so I am not worried about the lack of rushing work as Jimmy G should see 35-40+ pass attempts. With a guy on the field for about 25-30% more snaps seeing just as many targets as Breida and double the amount of Morris, isn’t it worth taking a shot on Juszczyk in GPPs, where he is basically FREE, on a week we are starved for some value? I’m not going to be surprised to see Juszcdjafdlkjfa’s target share go up from the 15.4% he got last week in a game Jimmy G is going to have 10-15 more pass attempts. Do yourself a favor and play this man in your milli maker lineups.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Kareem Hunt
High Tier: Odell Beckham Jr. ($8200 – DK / $8300 FD) – There is no doubt around Odell’s talent. He is a consensus top-3 receiver in the NFL and has slate breaking upside anytime he is healthy and on the field. The Texans rank 23rd in passing DVOA and like to play man defense. The Giants, who have been playing behind in both of there games so far, are top three in the league in pass attempts. Through Eli’s 81 pass attempts, Odell has seen a 30% target share. After two weeks against the best passing defense in the NFL and an extremely underrated Dallas defense people have already written Odell and the Giants off. This is the exact type of opportunity we look for in DFS where the public has moved on and left behind an explosive offense that has not gotten a chance to prove themselves yet. Don’t write Odell and the Giants off yet. This is going to be a huge game for them in what feels like a must win.
Mid-Tier: Will Fuller ($5900 – DK / $7200 – FD)- A much better play on Draftkings this week at only 5.9k I believe Fuller makes for an ELITE GPP play against a Giants defense that has looked shaky on the deep ball so far this season. You have to give Eli Apple credit for his improvement after being one of the worst in the league last year but he is out and Fuller should be matched up with BW Webb who has consistently ranked out as a bad WR in addition to Janoris Jenkins who got beat BADLY on a double move deep ball to Tavon Austin on Sunday night football last week and could be subject to some deep balls as well. In Fuller’s season debut he saw NINE targets which was good for a 28% target share. Fuller is almost exclusively a deep threat as shown by his 14.8 aDOT and logged 133 air yards in Week 2. Fuller is a lock this week and as I dig more into the numbers, a Giants/Texans game stack becomes more intriguing.
Low Tier: Courtland Sutton ($3500 DK / $4700 FD) – Going back to the well with Courtland Sutton in a matchup with the Ravens secondary may be a bit crazy. But that is what this article is all about. Finding these players with slate-breaking upside in beatable matchups. Sutton is not going to pay off every week but I’ve seen a ton of encouraging signs through two weeks and I feel like this is a sharp spot to go back to him. Going back to my week 1 analysis which you can find below, Courtland Sutton is a physical freak, compared to Calvin Johnson, and will be able to beat this matchup with a tough Ravens secondary if given the opportunity. At basically nothing on both sites, Sutton has seen 11 targets through two weeks. He’s on the field for relatively the same amount of snaps as the top two dogs in Sanders and Thomas. Sutton’s day is coming soon and I believe once the target share spikes (only need 7-9 range) Sutton is going to pop to a consistent 6-7k receiver. Get exposure to him in your milli maker lineups.
Week 1 Analysis: If you don’t know who this guy is, be prepared. Emmanuel Sanders is taking all the ownership from this Broncos pass attack this weak and Courtland Sutton is falling completely under the radar where he is basically free on all sites. To give you an idea of his profile he is a 6’ 3”, 281 pound, 23-year-old WR drafted in the second round out of SMU. His teammates are calling him the next Calvin Johnson. He player profile can be compared to Alshon Jeffery. This guy has all the makings of a breakout player and nobody is really talking about him (even after he dominated secondary’s in the preseason”. The Legion of Boom is now the Legion of Whom. Byron Maxwell’s injury has opened up playing time for Dontae Johnson (one of the worst CB’s in the NFL – slight stretch – and the worst on the Seahawks roster”. We have to assume Sutton will see around 65% of the snaps which is enough for him to breakout and crush his price tag. Sutton is an extremely risky option as we don’t know what things will look like as far as target share goes between him, Thomas, and Sanders but I do know if it was spread equally this guy would be one of the highest owned players on the slate given this price point. Lock and load in your large field GPPs.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Will Fuller
George Kittle ($4500 DK / $5800 FD) – After busting for the entire DFS community last week, Kittle saw an increase in price on both Draftkings and Fanduel. However, this is an elite spot for Kittle who is still extremely undervalued. The Chiefs absolutely get creamed over the middle – specifically by tight ends. Take a look at Kittle’s routes ran week 1 and lock him in.
Week 2 Analysis: I am not too concerned with the ownership at TE as I want to make the optimal play for GPPs and I think that is George Kittle who saw nine targets in week 1. The Lions have been someone we have been targeting through the TE position for a couple years now and it isn’t going to stop this week. They rank 26thth in DVOA against the TE and while Kittle didn’t post a huge score against the Vikings, the volume was there (volume is king in NFL if you didn’t hear) and he was up against one of the toughest defenses in the league. On Draftkings you can chalk Kittle up as one of the highest owned players on the slate, but you may be able to find him slightly lower owned on Fanduel where he absorbs more of the salary cap. This isn’t going to be your leverage play – but I think he smashes this week and I want to make sure my readers have him in your lineups.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 🙂
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.