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Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Millionaire Maker Plays Week 11

Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 11 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction.  For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma.  I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season.  As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!

 

 

QUARTERBACK :


High Tier:  Deshaun Watson  ($5700 – DK / $7800 – FD) –
  Watson has not been heavily used in a volume role for the Texans of late as they have been relying on their defense while playing 29th in pace of play.  This has been an issue the past four weeks, however , the Washington Redskins have faced opponent pass play at the third fastest pace this season.  Watson in addition provides additional fantasy scoring oppurtunity by adding at least 5 rushes in all but two games this season raising his floor and ceiling. 

With Houston making some changes on the offensive line I think we’re going to see slight imrovements in their pass-protection scheme this week.  This will be key for Watson’s success/ceiling in this game as Watson with a clean-pocket is a top-3 QB in this league. 

To throw at some statistics on Watson with a clean pocket the past two weeks (via PFF):

  • 155.9 passer rating (2nd in NFL)
  • 75% completion percentage (3rd in NFL)
  • 7 Touchdowns (Tied for 1st in NFL)

Also notable is Watson’s success on the ground where he leads the NFL in scramble yards this season and ranks 5th in yards after contact at 3.35.

Watson is going completely over-looked by the masses this week as everyone’s mouth waters at Wentz and Brees.  If you’re looking to differentiate in the high-teir, Watson is your an.

 

Mid Tier: Matt Stafford ($5400 – DK / $6800 – FD) –  The one thing we know we’re going to get in this game with the Lions and Matthew Stafford is volume.  This total is up to 49.5 where the Lions are expected to be trailing for the majority of the game which will lead them to abandon the run with Kerryon Johnson early.  While we don’t love to weigh past results to determine future outcomes it is notable that the Panthers have been a “funnell” type defense, where they are dominant against the run (3rd DVOA) and weak against the pass (24th DVOA ranking).

 

Stafford in years past has been an elite option for fantasy at years past and due to a rough start this season everyone in fantasy seems to forget about him.  When analyzing his numbers throughout the years, his aDOT and projected air yards are all on pace to keep up with his past years.  The only thing that is lagging behind this year is his TD % rate.  With the Lions offensive line holding up much better than year’s past (6.1% pressure rate) and Stafford running the pace of play on pace with the past two years (over 20% no huddle rate) I’m confident in the odds this game turns into a potential shootout with Matt Stafford going for one of his 400+ yards game.  With everyone on Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think Matt Stafford makes for the perfect GPP pivot.

 

 


Low Tier: Eli Manning  ($5500 – DK / $6700 – FD) –  
I had to check that Eli Manning wasn’t chalk this week becausee he just seems like such an amazing play.  Due to Draftkings keeping QB’s on this slate, priced down a bit it does make it difficult to make the case for Manning in cash games and a “weaker” GPP play but I think he is AN AMAZING GPP PLAY with a Giants stack where Saquon Barkley and Odell are both projected over 20% ownership this week.  

The Bucaneers are similair to Atlanta where they force shorter pass plays and get killed by yards after the catch.  This aligns perfectly for Eli, who’s aDOT is the lowest of his career at 7.3 yards.  What is notable is that Eli’s completion percentage is the highest of his career.  Although the Giants are looked at as a horrible team they have been basically “in” every game they have played this season.

This strategy is working for Eli’s pass efficiency and should be used in his benefit as they destroy a defense susceptible to this type of play.  The Vegas total here is HUGE for a Giants game and we’re in for a shooutout.  Don’t miss this oppurtunity to pivot off of some lower tiered QB’s and plug Eli into your Giants stacks.

 

 

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$):   Eli Manning

 

RUNNING BACK:

I always spend less time each week researching runnning backs as it is more about oppurtunity than actual ability.  I think Saquon Barkley and David Johnson are just ELITE plays this week and they will be in at least 95% of my lineups.  That’s how overweight on them so I just wanted to be as transparent as possible and put that out there. 

High: James Conner ($7,200 – DK / $8,200 – FD) – If you are looking a pivot off Zeke, Barkley, or Johnson at the high-tier, James Conner is a bell-horse who is going to be utilized in this game.  This is a tough matchup for Conner on the ground and through the air.  I won’t list off how the Jaguars have played against running backs this seaosn because it could scare you off this play which is what I’m not trying to do.  

As I said above, OPPURTUNITY is what matters  most for running backs and James Conner is ran into the ground by this Steelers team getting touches of 25,23,29, and 31 in past weeks.  In addition to all this the touchdown equity for Conner is huge where he’s seeing over 5 touches on average in the red zone per game over the past four weeks.  Le’Veon Bell leverage off the table may cause belief that the Steelers come off Bell a bit and they couldn’t be more wrong.  This is how the Steelers have used their running backs and with their recent success correlated to Conner’s increase in touches I don’t see this ending soon.

 


Mid-Tier: Tevin Coleman ($5,300 – DK / $6,800 – FD) –
 No one is talking about Tevin Coleman this week and I don’t think people realize how good the Cowboys have been against the pass.  Their cornerbacks have been shutdown this year and I’m very nervous about utilizing Julio this week.  

Coleman’s touches and snap count have slowly been trending up and he has been dominating the receiving with everyone nervous of Ito Smith eating in.  I think the Falcons are going to win this game utilizing Coleman and his price on Draftkings is down 2k off last week.  That is an insane price drop that we should take advantage of.  Going out on a limb and saying that Julio/Ridley get locked up this week and Coleman’s usage spikes en route to a huge week.

 

Low Tier: Theo Riddick ($4,000 – DK / $5,100 FD)-  Kerryon Johnson should quickly get worked out of this game with game script not in his favor as I touched upon in the Matt Stafford analysis.  Theo Riddick is basically being used 1/2 the time as a running back and 1/2 the time as a reciever.  This hybrid type of play with Golden Tate gone has led to 7.5 targets per week for someone price 4k.  The type of target share is actually insane given the fact Draftkings is a full PPR site.  

Theo Riddick Week 10 Route Chart

Obviously you can see from Riddick’s route tree that he is going to catch 80-90% of his targets.  This locks him in to a huge floor with major upside for yards after the catch this week where he is going to be 2% owned.  This is a play that could win you the millionaire maker.

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Theo Riddick

 

WIDE RECEIVER:

 

High Tier: Antonio Brown ($7,800 – DK / $8,500 FD) –  To throw out an absolutely crazy stat for you guys: Antonio Brown hasn’t been priced this low in 3 years.  3 years.  Brown is not getting the attention he should this week priced this low against a matchup with Jalen Ramsey he exposed in the playoffs last year.  The Jaguars have not been good at all through the air this year ranking 24th in PFF coverage grade this year. 

Because of the induvidual matchup with Jalen Ramsey, which public perception is an impossible matchup, is going to help out lowering the ownership which is shaping up to be an amazing GPP leverage play.  As I mentioned, I think the Dallas scheme and defensive matchup shapes up very diffiuclt for Atlanta to be successful through the air.

We know what we’re going to get with Antonio Brown where he only drops one pass every 35 cathcable targets (1st in the NFL – per PFF) and is a sure-fire lock this week for my GPP lineups if you can find the salary.

 

Mid Tier: Emmanuel Sanders ($6,200 – DK / $7,200 – FD) –  Emmanuel Sanders is flying under the radar at a discounted price as the clear WR1 on this Broncos team likely due to a weak vegas implied total.  

Emmanuel Sanders Week 9 Route Chart

What is key about Sanders route tree that is sticking out significantly to me since Thomas gone, is Sander’s consistent targets he gets close to the line of scrimmage which will lead to a high floor (PPR) and allows oppurtunity for YAC.

The key to making Sanders a GPP play this week is the couple shots he gets deep down the field as you can see didn’t “connect” last week.  In football we are focused on oppurtuntiy and volume, with Sanders involved dynamically down field while providing a floor, as to not bust your teams, he is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate.  He makes for an intriuging “hybrid” cash/gpp play at an affordable price tag on Draftkings.

 

Low-Tier:  Christian Kirk ($4,700 DK / $5,100 FD) – Kirk is going to fall way off the radar this week with everyone (including me) locking in David Johnson.  Larry Fitzgerald is also getting major talk this week coming off two weeks with 22 targets between both games.

I don’t see a ton of Cardinals stacks this week as people will have difficulty locking in Josh Rosen as their QB with so many great options this week (obviously a smart decision), however Kirk makes for the perfect leverage play off Johnson ownership if you are so inclined to fade, and whatever ownership Fitz gets which will be significant.

Kirk is a HUGE play if you’re loooking for upside as his aDOT is up to 9.8 yards but what is significant is in the chart below.

Kirk has been extremely successful in terms of catch rate on passes over 20 yards down the field this season.  He’s going to continue to break out as a huge vertical threat reciever and makes for the perfect leverage play this week with everyone on David Johnson and some on Fitzgerald.

A common GPP build of mine will be David Johnson and Christian Kirk in lineups this week WITHOUT Rosen.  The QB options this week are too great to play Rosen who most likely won’t break 300 yards or throw for 3 TDs.  We don’t need him to for both Johnson and Kirk to break the slate.

 

 

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Antonio Brown

 

 

TIGHT END:

 

Vance McDonald ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD) – If you couldn’t tell I’m high on the Steelers this week, and although I didn’t include Big Ben in my QB analysis, he is one of my top QBs on the week.  With Todd Haley gone, the home/road splits for Big Ben are frankly not showing correlation, and I’m going to attribute that issue to Haley over Ben.

Public perception is Ben sucks on the road and is in a tough matchup through the air.  Both statements with major astreicks next to them.  TE is a weak position week after week, and McDonald is able to provide major YAC upside as someone who is locked in for 4-5 targets every week, occassionaly seeing spikes in the 7-9 range.  The Jaguars got destroyed by TE’s last week in Doyle and Ebron.

McDonald provides similair upside this week at around 2-5% ownership.

 

 

 

I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM 

 

 

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter ?

 

*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL.  MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S.  TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *

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