Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Millionaire Maker Plays Week 12
Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 12 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Ben Rothlisberger ($6100 – DK / $7900 – FD) – As always, Big Ben is going to be a low-owned option on the road. As I mentioned in my article last week, I am a believer that Big Ben’s home/road splits were more of a result of Todd Haley then Big Ben. Big Ben has been on fire of late, crushing value in his past three games, notably, 2 of which were on the road.
As I mentioned in my article last week I was very high on the Steelers offense, which I thought busted, until the 2nd half where Big Ben broke out and dominated the Jaguars defense en route to 314 yards and three touchdowns on 47 pass attempts. The volume is going to be there for Big Ben on a Steelers team that rank 5th in pass play rate per game. While people think this is a tough matchup against Denver, who are known for a great pass rush, the Broncos have been awful in coverage/tackling after the catch posting one of the highest YAC allowed in the league. This is going to be a MAJOR issue with guys like Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster while even Vance McDonald should have an opportunity for a big game as someone who thrives after the catch.
Big Ben has quietly had an AMAZING season and I think this pass-heavy efficiency continues going into Denver.
Mid Tier: Lamar Jackson ($5700 – DK / $7400 – FD) – It was pretty awesome seeing Lamar Jackson rush for over 100 yards in his first NFL start. While I don’t think we’re going to see 100-yard rushing games on a weekly basis, Jackson does really boost his ceiling with his rushing ability. Against a lot of other NFL opponents I would likely not be back to Jackson this week, but this matchup with the Raiders is near ideal for how Jackson will be utilized in the Ravens offense.
Last week Jackson ran 27 times while throwing the ball 19. While I do think he’ll see around 15-20 rush attempts again this week, he should be set up for a ton of opportunities passing the ball against one of the weakest passing defenses in the NFL. Speaking of YAC, the Raiders are the WORST in the league in addition to allowing the 5th deepest aDOT. They are not only getting beat through deep passes but they are allowing these deep yardage catches to go for major yardage. Although we know that Jackson is not the most accurate Quarterback, this is one of the easiest matchups he’ll see.
So in addition to Jackson’s ability to throw the ball, check this graphic on Jackson’s rushes last week. By running horizontally away from the pocket he opens up a lot of running room on the outside with potential for big gains with his legs. I think he gets at least one rushing touchdown this week.
Low Tier: Baker Mayfield ($5500 – DK / $7500 – FD) – Bakerrrrr. We’re all in on Baker anyone after Anthony met him earlier this week. Confirmed GOAT. Baker is coming off a week where he was extremely efficient, throwing for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 20 throws against the Falcons. Notably before that Baker was throwing the ball A LOT, with his game log of pass attempts looking like 41, 43, 46, 34, 36, and 42. So we know if the Bengals take a lead in this game (which Vegas has them doing) Baker is going to be airing the ball out and the Browns aren’t afraid of letting him do so.
The Bengals are 5.8% above the league average in aDOT allowed and rank 26th in yards per pass. This is a very positive matchup for Baker and the Browns pass game as basically every position WR/RB/TE can catch passes for positive results against this Bengals defense. This could make it difficult to narrow down which players we want to pair with Baker (I’m all in on Landry) which would make the case for naked Baker. I, however, will discuss below why I love Landry this week.
This is a huge spot for Baker where virtually no one besides Anthony, myself, and the readers of this breakdown will have him.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Lamar Jackson
High: Saquon Barkley ($9,100 – DK / $9,000 – FD) – I usually don’t spend a lot of time on running back and that will continue to be the case in this article as I never try to get too cute at this position in my builds and usually play the highest upside/most volume players at the position. In rare cases, we get a week like this where Saquon is going to be “low-owned” compared to some other running backs on this slate that are in better matchups. This allows us the rare opportunity to take an ownership discount on one of the best running backs in the NFL in a game I believe could turn into a shootout with both defenses struggling this season in the Giants and the Eagles.
What I found notable that should lead to a game flow of major targets coming Saquon’s way is the fact that the Eagle’s defensive line rank 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate while the Giants offensive line ranks 28th in pressure rate allowed. This is going to lead to a TON of dump-offs to Saquon as Eli will be constantly under pressure. Saquon is going to catch at least 7 passes this week. Not sure what the player prop is on receptions from him but take the over.
Mid-Tier: David Johnson ($7,300 – DK / $7,900 – FD) – David Johnson was one holding call off from being price about 1-1.5k higher this week and I love it. What surprises me, even more, is that more people aren’t projected to be on him. David Johnson is backing to seeing around 25 touches a week as one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. The Cardinals are going to start this game heavily leaning on Johnson against the Chargers defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry. With game-flow projected to lead to passing from the Cardinals, it is relieving to see after a 9 target game for Johnson in the Cardinals most recent “big” loss, that Johnson will face a defense that allows fourth most receptions to the running back. David Johnson is going to see 25 touches this week in addition to some red zone looks. He’s one of my favorite plays on the board and is going way overlooked.
Low Tier: Matt Breida ($5,700 – DK / $6,400 FD)- Matt Breida will probably end up being fairly chalky but outside of Marlon Mack, if you are paying down at running back (which I rarely do), I think Matt Breida is your guy this week. I’m going to be quicker on his analysis as it’s pretty clear why I’m on him this week.
He’s in the game with the highest over-under on the board and is going to see around 20 touches. On both Fanduel and Draftkings, he is essentially an ELITE play in all formats. I don’t mind going down to him if you need value on a week I think it’s essential to pay up for TE.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): David Johnson
High Tier: Antonio Brown ($8,700 – DK / $8,500 FD) – I’ll be going back to Antonio Brown this week in GPP’s with Antonio Brown who has seen his aDOT dip a bit this year but has been the same elite player. I most likely shouldn’t have to show you this but if you weren’t already aware, Antonio Brown is in a league of his own.
While this difference in catch rate over the league average may seem minuscule in the above graphic it is extremely significant from an analysis perspective and just shows what AB is capable every week. Although Brown is not seeing the insane aDOT he saw last year that led to so many slate-breaking weeks he still has that upside and has seen his usage spike in the last few weeks. His price makes for a perfect pivot off Odell who is projected to be the highest owned WR on the slate.
Mid Tier: Jarvis Landry ($5,900 – DK / $6,100 – FD) – Jarvis Landry is one of my favorite wide receivers on this slate with the new role he’s taken on in this Browns offense. He has not yet “hit” for a slate-breaking week this season but I think that day is coming and I think it is very possible it is this Sunday. As I mentioned above in the Baker analysis, the Bengals are weak defensively all around the field. However, the Bengals are notably bad against WR’s allowing the 8th most yards and 11th most touchdowns to wideouts.
Although I don’t pay significant value on WR/CB matchups it is something I bake into my studying each weak and I was fond to see that Landry’s matchup ranks best on this team in the slot against Darius Phillips. Where in the past Landry has been used as a short aDOT, YAC player, this season the Browns are utilizing him to his true potential where he sees an aDOT of 10.5. His catch efficiency is down a bit this season likely as a result of his transitions into this new role but I’m a believer in Landry’s talent and I think his breakout game is coming.
Low-Tier: Courtland Sutton ($4,400 DK / $5,400 FD) – Courtland Sutton’s price has taken a major rise on Draftkings but I don’t think his Pt/$ or upside are affected too much with the price change as it really lowers his ownership and is justifiable given his new role as the #2 receiver and receiver #1 of the future for the Broncos. As I talked about early in the season before he was known because of that one chalky week, Sutton is compared to Megatron by his teammates and has the raw potential to be an elite receiver in the NFL. With myself so exposed to the Steelers on this slate, it is going to make sense for me to bring it back with someone. This someone is going to be Courtland Sutton who has the potential to easily outscore Emmanuel Sanders (another GREAT play this week). He has gone for over 55 yards in four of his last five games while his route tree from this season shows how he is heavily utilized as a vertical threat receiver lifting his ceiling. Sutton has impressively advanced analytics with an aDOT of 14.2 and a respectable RACR of .69. If Sutton is able to continue this yardage efficiency while adding a touchdown he is going to break the slate at a price that is still too cheap. I really wish the Broncos had Kirk Cousins over Case Keenum but it is what it is. I’m trusing Sutton this week in the low tier in ALL my GPPS.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Jarvis Landry
George Kittle ($6,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – George Kittle is going to be chalky this week along with Zach Ertz. However, this is similar to another matchup (I believe with Kittle), earlier in the year where I just don’t think you can fade him. This is the case for Kittle this week (unless you go Ertz or Brate) at an extremely thin position. Kittle is the highest rated tight end in the NFL this season according to PFF that is still playing. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd most yards and 5th most touchdowns to tight ends in the NFL this season.
I don’t mind if you go both Kittle and Breida this week without playing the Quarterback Mullens which some people in DFS are scared to do for some reason. As was last week with Johnson and Kirk, it is very possible that a similarly priced Quarterback outscores Mullens even if Kittle and Breida post slate-breaking value. Quarterback pricing is very condensed this year on Draftkings and it is very possible to get better QB plays while locking in a running back and either WR/TE from a team. This is the route I’m taking this week.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *