Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 14 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Patrick Mahomes ($7000 – DK / $9300 – FD) – Mahomes is projected to be under 10% owned and I think we all know that is one of the biggest mistakes this week as Mahomes has been electric this season flashing massive upside while grading out as PFF’s 2nd highest ranked QB. With Kareem Hunt gone, I don’t think we see the Chiefs lean on this run game with Spencer Ware as much as we originally thought. Ware will end up between 12-18 touches this week but barring an onslaught where the Chiefs are running out the clock, I can’t see a scenario in which Mahomes doesn’t go off again this week.
Unfortunately, the trend for great success against the Ravens this season has been keeping a low aDOT as teams with an aDOT under 7 went for the most gains in yardage and touchdowns. This is where the risk will be for Mahomes this week and likely why everybody in the DFS community is down on him.
However, this Chiefs team and Patrick Mahomes is something special which is leading me to value the Ravens defense a lot less then I would be had they been playing virtually any other opponent. Mahomes remains the highest ceiling QB on the slate and is going to have ownership in the single digits. Hop on.
Mid Tier: Matt Ryan ($6100 – DK / $7900 – FD) – I love the chatter around the Falcons this week and I believe losing your head coach mid-season, unless it’s Hue Jackson, will have some negative effects on the football team but mainly on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers are bottom half in the league in passing yards allowed per attempt and are featured in a 51.5 over/under game. The Falcons without Devonte Freeman have essentially given up on the run ranking third in most passing plays per game. Without touching too much on Julio here, it is notable that WR1’s have been doing a LOT of damage against the Packers this season which should continue to be the trend with Julio.
Matt Ryan is likely going to throw the ball 45+ times on Sunday and carries upside similair to that of Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben this week at 1/4 the ownership.
Look for Matt Ryan to continue his dominance this season similair to his heat map below courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats.
Low Tier: Mark Sanchez ($4000 – DK / $6300 – FD) – This is the most painful thing to spend my time researching and now writing about. Playing Mark Sanchez on Draftkings this week. It seems insane to say but the pricing is just toooooo good not to give a look to a starting Quarterback who is just 57% the price of Patrick Mahomes. Although this team doesn’t have a huge implied total I was semi-surprised to see them hovering around 19 points. The Giants defense has never returned to form after being considered one of the best in the league two years ago so we shouldn’t be worried at all about this matchup.
Sanchez is going to have to pass downfield to beat this Giants team in a game they are projected to be trailing. Considering Sanchez will literally be .5% owned possessing a floor of around 10DK points, I don’t see how you can’t get some exposure at 4,000 on Draftkings.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Matt Ryan
RUNNING BACK: This position stays as it has been where I think it is essential to get exposure to the volume driven guys at RB. However, if you’re looking to differentiate a bit these are the guys I would look at.
High: Nick Chubb ($6,700 – DK / $7,700 – FD) – I’m going to spend a lot less time on the running back position this week as it is very clear to me that at this point in the season you need to be locking in the CMC’s, Barkley’s, and Elliot’s to truly construct a roster you’ll be happy with. As is my consistent strategy in NFL DFS I’ll be looking to differentiate more at QB and WR.
Nick Chubb is definitely a fringe “in-play” guy this week as he is guaranteed the 20-22+ touches we’re looking for but downside comes from the Browns offensive line which ranks 21st in adjusted line yards. I couldn’t find the exact stat I uncovered earlier in the week but was able to find some great other stats.
Nick Chubb is averaging 4.59 after contact which is the highest number PFF has ever charted since they started tracking the stat in 2006. Chubb forces .25 missed tackles which ranks 5th out of any RB since 2006. If Chubb is able to get any help from his offensive line in this game he could be one of the highest scoring running backs on the slate.
Mid-Tier: Kenyan Drake ($4,700 – DK / $5,300 – FD) – I love Kenyan Drake and have been on him a ton all season. He hasn’t been utilized correctly at times this season, mostly in games the Dolphins are leading or at least close leading to less usage and in turn for us a decreased price point. The Dolphins will surely be trailing the Patriots leading to a higher snap count for Drake and somewhere between 7-10 targets. Throw in the 6-8 rush attempts we’ll see and Drake is up in that mid-tier running back range in touches while price very low. His big-play upside gives him a massive ceiling on a week his usage will spike. This is all while remaining 2% owned.
Low Tier: Justin Jackson ($4,600 – DK / $6,300 FD)- There has been some talk in the Chargers organization the Eckler is not able to handle the role of a full-time back opening up the possibility we see a lot of Justin Jackson this week in a game that is projected to be a massive blowout with the Chargers favored by two touchdowns but implied to score 31 points. This is going to lead to Jackson dominating the snaps in the 2nd half of the game but still likely splitting the workload in the 1st. With Jackson looking extremely comfortable in his role with the Chargers last week I have confidence that they lean on him a bit more in one of the top matchups for RBs on the slate. The Bengals have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns over the past 7 games and Jackson sets up well for some of the Chargers TD equity.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Nick Chubb
High Tier: Julio Jones ($7,900 – DK / $8,400 FD) – Coming off his disastrous performance last week for only two catches, I can’t say I’m too surprised by the projected ownership on Julio given how big a factor recency bias is in today’s NFL. With that being said, Julio ranks first in the NFL in % of his team’s air yards. Julio has seen the highest aDOT of his career at 14.6 this season just solidifying how massive his upside is. His floor remains intact with his consistent target + air yards share so we shouldn’t be worried about another “bust” from Julio. The fact that Julio is not one of the highest projected owned WR’s on the slate is an issue and one we should be taking advantage of as DFS players this week.
Mid Tier: Jarvis Landry ($5,300 – DK / $5,500 – FD) – Head to this link: https://dfskarma.com/football/bobbys-nfl-gpp-breakdown-millionaire-maker-plays-week-13/ and read my analysis on Landry last week. I was talking him up in the Discord chat before lock and had one subscriber turn Landry’s big day into a $500 payday. Not bad. I am RIGHT back to the well this week with Landry who has the same factors in his favor that I discussed last week and now should see his normal volume again this week in a game that could turn into a mini-shootout. Landry is a MUCH better play this week than Dotson below and I don’t even hate the idea of using him in cash. His floor+ceiling is extremely elevated in this Browns role that hasn’t ended in the right results so far this season out of last week but that will continue to change as Landry proves his WR1 status for the Browns. (Baker+Chubb+Landry = ALL the money)
Low-Tier: Josh Doctson ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – This play may be more insane than the Mark Sanchez call. However, if you’re looking to get a Mark Sanchez lineup going I am going to be pairing him up with the highest upside receiver on this team in Josh Doctson. Doctson will legitimately be .4% owned this week. Maybe even less. With that being said, Doctson has been a high upside receiver throughout his three years in the league mainly used as a deep-threat target with aDOTs of 18.8, 14, and 12.4 respectively. Mark Sanchez is going to NEED to throw the ball downfield in order for the Redskins to remain competitive in the mid-late part of this game and I believe this is where we get a good chance of a Doctson big-play. Doctson has been receiving a large % of the target share for the Redskins where he hasn’t been able to pair his better receiving yardage games with a touchdown. Doctson hasn’t posted a 100+ receiving yard game so far in his career but the former 1st round pick is approaching his prime at 26 years old and has physical metrics off the charts. I’m buying into Doctson this week as a great deep GPP play.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Julio Jones
George Kittle ($5,500 DK / $6,200 FD) – Kittle has fallen off the radar a bit after earlier in the season people were talking about him being the best TE in the NFL. This is a prime matchup for tight-ends against a Broncos defense that is in the bottom 3rd in yardage given up to TE’s. Kittle’s price is fairly cheap this week considering the targets he’s getting in this 49’ers offense (9,13,10 over the last 3 weeks). Kittle should be fed the ball in this matchup where the 49’ers are going to need to throw the football and if he can fall into the end-zone this week he has the chance to break the slate. He’s my favorite TE in all formats.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *