Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 15 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Kirk Cousins ($6200 – DK / $7800 – FD) – You like that?! Although people will be nervous about the firing of the Vikings offensive coordinator, I am not as concerned as the Dolphins pass defense has been horendous this season ranking 26th against the pass in DVOA. Coming off back to back games without throwing for multiple touchdowns the public is going to be extremely down on Cousins.
As long as Cousins isn’t targeting Minkah Fitzpatrick, the rookie who has only allowed a 49.6 passer rating when targeted, Cousins will be able to produce extremely efficiently in a game the Vikings are implied for 26 points.
This sets up perfectly for how Cousins has played this season where he has been much better deeper down field and outside the numbers. Pairing Cousins with Thielen or Diggs is going to pay off huge this Sunday.
Mid Tier: Tom Brady ($5900 – DK / $7900 – FD) – I spent a lot of time watching film on Brady this past week and with the talks about Brady getting the old noodle arm spreading throughout the sports industry, I can confidently say Brady has a ton of zip still behind the ball. The Patriots vs. the Steelers is one of the most classic matchups of this generation of football and I can’t wait to see what these teams have in store.
The Steelers have been a below average group against the pass this year ranking 21st in passing DVOA. They have struggled immensely over the middle of the field which likely bodes well for safe/high-upside games for both Edelman and Gronk. Vegas has this over/under slated at 53.5 currently which ranks as the highest total on the slate by a significant margin. Brady should easily hit the 300-yard bonus in this game while throwing for multiple touchdowns. I prefer Brady over Big Ben which is one of the easiest pivots of the week for me in both cash and GPP.
Low Tier: Nick Mullens ($4800 – DK / $6600 – FD) – It’s common knowledge at this point that Nick Mullens has looked a lot better than a 3rd string QB in the NFL. I will be banking on that production to continue to some level in this matchup against the Seattle secondary which looks a lot better than the start of the season but still rank 22nd in allowed yards per pass attempt. The 49’ers have a major weapon in George Kittle and he will continue to post a high ceiling combo when paired with his Quarterback.
Mullens over his past two games is averaging 40.5 pass attempts while posting 370 YPG with two touchdowns in each. The first of these two which came on the road in Seattle where he threw for over 400 yards. If this game shapes up anywhere close to how that first matchup between Mullens and Seattle went, we could be looking at a major value at the Quarterback position.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Tom Brady
High: Leonard Fournette ($7,500 – DK / $8,500 – FD) – As always is with the running back position, I spend the least amount of my research weekly here as it is my “optimal” approach in NFL, whether it be GPPs or cash games to play the CMC’s, Barkley’s, and Zeke’s of the week. This week it seems really difficult to get off both Elliot and Barkley as the two carry insane upside given their matchups and how they are utilized in their respective offenses. The only way I can see one of these two player’s “busting” is if they get injured or are involved in some crazy blowout. With that being said, the clear pivot off of these two in the high-tier is Leonard Fournette.
Fournette has been injured for much of this season so we haven’t seen him as much as we are accustomed too. However, the Jags will likely utilize him for over 25 touches this week against a Redskins team that almost surely will be trailing. A bet against Fournette getting in the end zone this week seems like a bet that Josh Johnson is going to have the Redskins in the lead for any point during this game. Unlikely to say the least.
Mid-Tier: Sony Michel ($4,700 – DK / $5,300 – FD) – I’m all in on the Patriots week as I think this is going to be a very high scoring game (duh) but in my opinion the DFS community isn’t capitzalizing on this Patriots offense as much as they should. The reasoning behind this is that there are so many different weapons on this offense it is often difficult to predict the usage and where it’s going to come from. Obviously, we’ll need exposure to all of, if not some of the Patriots touchdowns for these plays I’m recommending to pay off this week.
If I’m playing 3 RB’s or for whatever reason fade Barkley this week (I think Zeke is a #LOCK), I’ll be giving a close eye to Sony Michel who has a ton of TD equity on this Patriots team but has seen a major price drop lately due to James Devlin stealing this man’s touchdowns. Michel is seeing the same volume he was when he was priced in the 6k range on Draftkings but has saw a dip in production. His snap count and carries all look good to me and he will make for a contrarian way to get exposure to this offense. Brady+Michel+ a receiver is my favorite build this week.
Low Tier: Kenneth Dixon ($3,500 – DK / $5,700 FD)- I likely won’t have exposure to Dixon outside of a millionaire-maker type contest but he is 3.5k and we’ve heard the reports all week and have seen the tape. Kenneth Dixon is the better running back in this offense. The question is, whether the Ravens will identify this edge between there running backs and act logically or continue to run out Gus Edwards for 70% of the snaps. It’s a major question mark but if Dixon is able to surpass that 50% share of this backfield his value is enough to break the slate.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Sony Michel
High Tier: Adam Thielen ($8,600 – DK / $8,200 FD) – This comes as a fairly chalky play this week but is one that will be 100% in all of my lineups. Although Thielen projects for some decent ownership on this salte I don’t even think it comes close to where it should be given his floor/ceiling combo which makes him an elite option in all formats.
If you weren’t already aware of how good Thielen’s season has been.. check out this graphic below.
This significant margin on Thielen’s catch rate compared to the league average at various depth’s just shows how efficient Thielen has been. Coming off a “dud” last week, Thielen should be peppered with targets Sunday en route to a huge day.
Mid Tier: Josh Gordon ($6,400 – DK / $6,800 – FD) – On paper, this lines up as a better matchup for Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski for shorter passes over the middle of the field. Josh Gordon will likely see a lot of Joe Haden on the outside who has been surprisingly good this season even in his old age. While Haden may have had a solid season it should be taken into account how much of a mismatch this is when comparing the two’s physical aspects. Gordon has a solid 4 inches and 35 pounds on Gordon. Gordon is faster, stronger, and the advantage is always going to be with the receiver. Gordon should be able to dominate in this matchup against the stronger corner as he continues to provide MASSIVE upside with his 13.6 aDOT and 59% catch rate which is the highest of his career. I think this is a 20 DK point game incoming for the Patriots wide receiver.
Low-Tier: Michael Gallup ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – Michael Gallup is going to be forgotten this week and is the exact type of play I spent so much time searching for on a slate that doesn’t provide a ton of great value.
A lot of people don’t know who Michael Gallup is but he is a 22-year-old, 3rd round pick out of Colorado State. While this isn’t the best football school in the country, Gallup absolutely dominated there. PlayerProfiler.com has Gallup ranked for a 37.4% college dominator. Gallup is the PERFECT pivot off of the Amari Cooper chalk this week if you are looking to avoid Cooper. Gallup provides similar upside with an insane 14.8 aDOT while Cooper’s YAC is what is giving him such huge games (his aDOT is only 9).
Zeke + Michael Gallup this week WITHOUT DAK will be part of the core of my NFL lineups.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Michael Gallup
Vance McDonald ($3,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Coming back with all the Patriots we will need some exposure to the Steelers. This is what I’m going to get with Vance McDonald who is one of the best tight-ends in the country with YAC. McDonald is a big guy who is tough to tackle with a target share that ranges from 4-8 depending on the week. Given the type of opponent they are playing, the bend but don’t break scheme will be in effect likely limiting as much of Juju and AB as the Pats can while forcing short passes over the middle of the field.
McDonald’s profile and statistics this year point to a massive oppurtunity for him in this game. He’s my favorite tight end on the slate PT/$.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *