Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 16 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Deshaun Watson ($6600 – DK / $8000 – FD) – This is going to be a huge week for Deshaun Watson and I’m going to be a part of it as I suggest you do too. There is some misconception that this Eagles defense is #good because of a solid D-Line however, they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Eagles are 23rd in passing DVOA this season and have been getting worse as the year goes on with the different injuries they’ve had to deal with. The Eagles defense also notably faces the highest rate of passing plays in the NFL.
This all sets up for a game where Watson, who typically doesn’t pass a ton this season, seeing a spiked amount of attempts. Watson has been solid in a limited passing role and has provided us with about 3 fantasy points per week in terms of his rushing. If we can see Watson get in a rhythm this week and rush the ball around 5-7 times Watson provides the highest Quarterback ceiling on the slate. He should be considered in all formats.
Mid Tier: Baker Mayfield ($6100 – DK / $7700 – FD) – Bakerrrrr. After the loss of Joe Thomas there were some concerns about the offensive line this season but per PFF, Kevin Zeitler has allowed only one or no pressures to the QB in 13/14 games this season which is tied for best in the league. Mayfield has had some games where he has struggled, but for the most part has looked for and away the best QB in this most recent draft class. Baker has shown above average accuracy we saw from college and with a clean pocket against a terrible defense ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass he should be able to destroy this Bengals team while I imagine the Browns “lay it on” the Bengals and former head coach Hue Jackson. This is more of a narrative belief that has me thinking the Browns maintain Baker’s high volume of pass attempts per game.
Low Tier: Taylor Heinicke ($4000 – DK / $6000 – FD) – First off, on Fanduel, play Nick Foles over Heinicke at an identical price. However, at 4k this is just too good of a price to pass up against a defense that Tim Tebow could put up 300 yards against this Sunday. The Falcons allow a ton of easy passes to running backs and over the middle of the field which lines up for Heinicke to have a solid day. Heinicke also has a huge arm with potential for upside on some broken plays.
After referencing playerprofile.com I also discovered Heinicke is in the 86th, 90th, and 78th percentile in the 40-yard dash, burst score, and agility respectively. This mobility should provide a floor for Heinicke with a lot of upside given the price on Draftkings. He’s definitely a solid play if you’re looking to pay down at QB.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Deshaun Watson
High: Christian McCaffery ($8,800 – DK / $9,300 – FD) – If McCaffery is out there for his usual number of snaps this week he could be the highest scoring running back on the slate where I imagine he’ll have 10-12 targets against a Falcons team he tore up for over 30DK points earlier in the season to go along with 15 targets. The Falcons continue to be horrible against running backs out of the back field leading the NFL in receptions and yards to opposing RBs. This is what McCaffery did against the Falcons in Week 2. Keep in mind these are RECEPTIONS and not carries.
I don’t usually love getting too weird at running back this week and that will continue to be the case with Zeke, Barkley, McCaffery, Chubb, and Mack being the main guys I circulate around my lineups.
Mid-Tier: Marlon Mack ($5,500 – DK / $7,000 – FD) – Mack is a nice pivot especially if you’re looking for a cheaper running back option on Draftkings. I’ve been high on Mack since last season as a prospect and was waiting for the day Frank Gore would be out of town (ironically Frank Gore has limited the growth-production of the running back listed below as my low-tier option).
The Giants obviously loss Damon Harrison earlier this season significantly decreasing their run defense. This is a game Andrew Luck shouldn’t have to throw for a ton of volume leading to a potential 20+ carry game for Marlon Mack. Mack hasn’t seen a ton of volume this season but when he does he has posted 100 yard games and he should be close to a lock for that again come Sunday.
Low Tier: Kenyan Drake ($3,900 – DK / $5,800 FD)- I don’t love this price on Fanduel but on Draftkings he’s worth taking a shot on at 3.9k on Draftkings. Drake has seen volatile usage this season but against a Jaguars defense, the Dolphins likely won’t test through the air the running backs on this team should be heavily involved. Drake has big-play upside and if he can get loose this week he’ll provide a ton of salary relief on a week everyone will be paying up for RB’s.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Marlon Mack
High Tier: Adam Thielen ($7,700 – DK / $7,600 FD) – Adam Thielen’s price has plummeted after a few bad weeks and I think he will go under 10% owned on a week people won’t have the salary to get him after paying up for Zeke, Barkley, Chubb, etc.
Thielen’s catch rate continues to be unworldly this season as seen below.
This catch rate is so elite when considering the league’s average Thielen is one of the top 3 WR’s in the league in this statistical category. This is a pass-heavy offense against the Lions secondary allowing the 4th highest amount of yards per attempt this season. Thielen AND Diggs should dominate this matchup.
Mid Tier: Allen Robinson ($5,400 – DK / $6,500 – FD) – Robinson is an under the radar play that is in the elite category for both sites this Sunday. Robinson remains the WR 1 in this offense and a healthy Trubisky is a good sign in Matt Nagy’s offense. Robinson owns a solid 12.2 aDOT this season giving him room for upside. This is a solid opportunity for Robinson against the 49ers pass defense ranked 25th in DVOA.
Robinson will likely need a touchdown this week to post a week winning score but he is a big red zone target and someone I’m taking a chance on getting into the end zone this week. Below is his TD rate on EZ targets throughout his career and needless to say he is an extremely efficient receiver in the red zone. If he can get one or even two TD’s this week he’ll break the slate.
Low-Tier: Michael Gallup ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – This is that 1% owned play that a ton of you come to my article weekly to find. Michael Gallup didn’t get targeted last week and while that will likely scare a ton of sharp DFS players that were on him last week I’m not going to allow that to deter me in catching his big game. The Cowboys are implied for 28 points this week which is up there with the best on the slate.
The Cowboys are going to attack this team in many different ways and Gallup is not going to go untargeted this week I promise you that. He was on the field for 55 of 69 snaps last week so it isn’t like he’s not playing, Dak just didn’t get him the football on a day the Cowboys couldn’t get anything going.
With a massive 14.80 aDOT, Gallup provides enough upside to post a 20+ DK point score if he can find the end zone. This should be a big week for him considering price.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Michael Gallup
David Njoku ($3,800 DK / $5,300 FD) – People have been down on Njoku this year where he’s seeing a lower aDOT than he was accustomed to before Baker came into town, however, his volume has been fairly consistent over the past four week’s where we can expect 4-6 targets for the Joker. While I don’t think we’re going to see an insane game from him I do believe that he is a solid pivot off the Evan Engram chalk which I don’t LOVE.
Given the fantastic matchup with the Bengals I’m going to bet on Joker’s efficiency and expect a 5/60/1 line out of him tomorrow which will be more than enough to counter Engram chalk.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *