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Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Week 5

Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 5 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction.  For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma.  I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season.  As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!

 

QUARTERBACK :


High Tier:  Patrick Mahomes  ($6200 – DK / $8600 – FD) –
  I’m typing the Quarterback section of this article a day after I completed the receivers so my suggestion would to be start with the receiver section of this article and then come back to Mahomes.  The receiver is the most volatile position in NFL DFS and is what I spend the majority of my time researching each week as that is where we win the GPPs.  With that being said there are exceptions like Mitch Trubisky, who I highlighted last week in this article who was the key to winning GPPs.  With that being said, we are getting massive leverage on the highest rated PFF QB through four weeks.  Yes, he’s going against an elite defense in the Jaguars but see below as to why I’m confident this offense shouldn’t struggle.  Our site is giving me an error while trying to upload Mahomes’ completion percentage graph by depth of target so let me summarize what I’m looking at.  We learned in the Tyreek Hill analysis that the Jaguars have been susceptible between ~14-22 yard aDOT.  Completion percentage is often an overlooked stat that, to me, is still extremely important and telling to a QB’s ability.  Mahomes has LEGENDARY type completion percentages when his target depth is between 15 and 30 yards.  It peaks at 20 yards which is RIGHT in the wheelhouse of the Jaguars early season struggles  Take Mahomes in this spot at some of the lowest ownership we’ll get all season – still crazy to think.

 

Mid-Tier:  Carson Wentz  ($5800 – DK / $7500 – FD) – E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES! Ouch. As a Giants fan, I just puked in my mouth a little bit typing that out.  But it’s something we all must swallow and live with. The Eagles are reigning Superbowl champions and we can’t do anything about it.  Returning for his second week of action is Carson Wentz who seems to be a forgotten player in the NFL after putting together an MVP caliber season before going down with an ACL injury.  It’s to my belief, Wentz wouldn’t be back on the field if he wasn’t absolutely 100% so there is no concern from me on his hesitation at rushing the football or being aggressive outside the pocket.  The Vikings defense, like what seems a lot of 2017 elite defensive teams, is broken.  They have had 10 days since their last game so there’s a chance they come out improved a bit, but this Eagles offense will be hard to stop with Wentz under center.  Per airyards.com, through Wentz’s first 83 pass attempts, he is averaging a career-high in PACR and playing out of the shotgun 2.5% more than his 2017 season.  These are awesome signs that Wentz stays aggressive and most importantly efficient coming into Week 5 of this season.  The Eagles are in a modest game total of 46.5 but are implied for 25 points themselves which is very attackable from a DFS perspective.  I’ll be monitoring Wentz’s aDOT over the next couple weeks to see if it starts to creep up but his completion % is higher than it was last season.  At only 5.8k on Draftkings this week, Wentz is one of the top GPP quarterbacks on the slate.


Low Tier: Derek Carr ($5200 – DK / $7000 – FD) –  
The projected ownership on Derek Carr (<5%) is actually insane.  This game could easily be the highest scoring game of the week and Carr should see 40+ pass attempts for the third time this season.  The price combined with the ownership is just criminal here as seems to be the trend with a lot of plays this week on Draftkings.  I caught on Twitter, that all three cornerbacks on the Chargers have been allowing a passer rating over 100 when targeted.  The total on this game is 53.5 and will turn into a shootout. It’s my favorite game stack of the week (sorry Falcons/Steelers – which I 100% will have pieces of) as it’s going completely overlooked compared to that big game. With Derek Carr at his best with a clean pocket, he should be extremely comfortable picking apart this Chargers defense.  Without Joey Bosa, this team has dropped to bottom 5 in the league in adjusted sack rate and should continue to be a trend until they get there star defensive end back after their bye week.  Another smash spot at QB, Derek Carr will be my highest owned QB come Sunday.

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$):   Derek Carr

 

 

RUNNING BACK:

 

High: Saquon Barkley ($7,700 – DK / $7,900 – FD) – We never need to get too cute at running back which will be the trend this week as we generally just want volume/opportunity for our RB’s. Saquon Barkley fits the bill as a guy who is heavily involved in the passing game and should continue to get worked more into this offense as the season goes along and the Giants figure out how to use the best player on their team.  Barkley is essentially seeing WR2 receiver type targets while adding 15-20 rushing attempts.  The ceiling on this guy is through the roof.

Saquon Barkley Week 4 Route Chart

Looking at his route tree from last week is extremely encouraging as he is getting these “dump-offs” in the backfield which is going to continue to lead to a high catch rate which is huge for PPR scoring formats like Draftkings.  Barkley even gets his ceiling boosted by lining up on the outside on occasion (seen on right side of route tree) where he saw a 20-yard end zone target.  With what feels like the Giants season on the line I believe they rely heavily on Barkley.  At <10% projected ownership, Barkley is going to be heavily over-owned in my GPP lineups.


Mid-Tier: Kareem Hunt ($5800 – DK / 7800 – FD) –
 Kareem Hunt had his breakout week and of course it wasn’t on the main slate.  CRAP!!!! I’ve been riding this guy all season and of course, his huge stat line comes on a one-game showdown slate.  With that being said, if I am wrong about Mahomes and Hill (which I’m not because I’m always right obviously), Hunt is going to be the main beneficiary of the pass game struggles.  The Jaguars were extremely attackable on the ground last season and that has continued to be a +EV strategy as we approach Week 5.  On Fanduel, Hunt is out of consideration for me but on Draftkings at only 5.8k, with a reasonable possibility of posting a 20+ point performance, you have to be overexposed in GPPs.  There is a slight chance that the Chiefs scheme away from the pass, knowing who they’re up against, and we see Hunt get the most usage he has gotten all season.  This would surprise me, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities knowing how unpredictable Andy Reid can be.  Hunt should be a lock for 20+ touches after doing major damage in his first 20+ touch game of the season this past Sunday. Andy Reid may have just discovered that his RB1 is #good.


Low Tier: Kenyan Drake  ($4700 – DK / $5900 FD)-
   I do not advise going to heavy on Kenyan Drake this week.  All signs and trends point to Drake not seeing a ton of touches, fewer snaps, and fewer fantasy points.  But PURELY from a talent perspective, Kenyan Drake is a pass-catching back with ELITE upside. But Dolphins going to Dolphin and will continue to implement more of the stone-aged Frank Gore into the game plan week after week.   If the Dolphins can figure it out they will have a ton of success in this offense as there are tons of weapons being under-utilized as they continue to run a conservative type offense.  This is 2018 and the defense is not going to win the game.  Tannehill has the experience where he either needs to show up or go home.  In a 48.5 game total where the Dolphins are projected to be playing from behind, if Drake doesn’t see at LEAST 5 targets and 10+ rush attempts I am considering the Dolphins coaching as bad as the Browns.  Bold Call: Kenyan Drake is in the millionaire winning lineup this week.

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Kareem Hunt

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER:

 

High Tier: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 – DK / $7,800 FD) –  Disclaimer: I’m writing the analysis on Tyreek Hill before I get into my Patrick Mahomes breakdown so there may be some overlap.  Tyreek Hill is coming into this game after a “quiet” 9 catch, 54 yard game against the Broncos on Monday night football.  The Chiefs now, off a short, week, find themselves back at Arrowhead for a showdown with one of the best defenses in the league in the Jaguars.  The Chiefs are currently implied for 26 points in a game with a 49 over/under.  One of the highest we have seen for a Jaguars game in quite a while.  There is no doubt that the Jaguars have an elite defense, but this offense with Patrick Mahomes under center has been historical.  With Sammy Watkins possibly out this week, we should see a spike in Tyreek Hill’s target.  “But Jalen Ramsey! But Jaguars defense!” I touched on in the DFS Karma slack chat how an elite offense will always beat an elite defense if running on all cylinders (sorry traditionalists).  Now, why I am looking at Tryeek Hill as my WR1 for GPPs this week? Well, take a look at these charts below.

 

Look at the x-axis Depth of Target.  There is a spike in where the Jaguars opponents have been above average in catch efficiency, starts at around a 15-yard aDOT, and there Tyreek Hill’s efficiency which is well above the league average at that 15-yard aDOT. This year Patrick Mahomes has been targeting Hill at an aDOT of 15.4 yards which literally falls right before the peak of the Jaguars weakest defensive area (outside of a 1-2 yard pass).  With Watkins likely out with a hamstring injury Hill will be heavily utilized.  In Week 1 of the season, we saw how Hill was utilized against, what we thought at the time, was a secondary close to the Jaguars.  Below was Hill’s route tree + production in that game.

Tyreek Hill Week 1 Route Chart

This Chiefs team is #sharp and I believe they go back to leaning heavily on Hill in a spot most DFS players will avoid because of the Jaguars name.  This is by no means a cash game play but is one of my top GPP plays on the slate.  Side note: Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill are beefing on Twitter. Should make for an interesting matchup!

 

Mid-Tier:  Amari Cooper ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD) –  The Raiders/Chargers game is one of my favorite game stacks of the slate with a game total of 53.5 where we should see slightly less ownership in this projected shootout due to all the attention on the Falcons vs. Steelers game.  In addition to Amari Cooper’s questionable tag, the past success of the Chargers secondary may keep people off of Cooper in this matchup where he is only projected 5-10% ownership on Draftkings. The Chargers are actually third worst in the NFL this season in yards allowed after the catch.  Casey Hayward is projected to be shadowing Amari Cooper, a matchup that should be exploitable if Hayward continues his play from the first four weeks of the season.  Hayward, when targeted, has allowed a passer rating in the triple digits on route to 186 yards and 2 touchdowns through 17 targets.  Through studying some defensive trends with the Chargers, it becomes clear that receiver catch efficiency spikes above the average at around a 12-yard aDOT and stays above the league average by a large chunk until around a 24-yard aDOT.  Cooper’s aDOT this season is right in that range at 11 yards and is having a similar year to 2016 when analyzing his RACR, where he posted his career high in receiving yards.  In this shootout at only 5.5k on Draftkings, at projected low-ownership, lock Amari Cooper into your GPP lineups.

 

Low Tier: Mohammed Sanu ($4,000 – DK / $6,400 – FD)-   This is one of the easiest leverage/GPP plays for me as the crowd will continue to ride Calvin Ridley, as seen by 20%+ ownership projections.  Sanu holds a questionable tag currently but was a full participant in Thursday’s practice so there should be no question about his status come Sunday.  Sanu is the number two WR on this team in terms of receiver snap count as Ridley only sees slightly above 50% of time on the field.  The price for Sanu here on Draftkings is criminal given the matchup and while he may not pop off for 100+ yards like last week his TD equity in a game projected 58 points is massive.  Julio Jones is the lock in this game but Mohammed Sanu offers massive leverage at <5% projected ownership.  It is also interesting to find that Sanu is seeing an aDOT above 10 yards for only the second time in his career.  The other time was in 2014 where he went off for over 1,100 yards and 5 touchdowns.  While in 2014 he was seeing 8 targets per game compared to the 6 he is seeing this season, his catch rate was also 8% lower and his RACR .1 lower.  In an incoming shootout, where Sanu should see a small bump in targets anyway due to the increase in pass attempts, this is a huge spot for the 7th year veteran.  Load him up as an EASY play over Calvin Ridley.

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): MoHammed Sanu

 

 

TIGHT END:

 

Mike Gesicki  ($2,500 DK / $4,400 FD) –  I’m going to include my breakdown of Mike Gesicki below from last week which is a major reason he will be sinking my lineups this week again as in addition to my reasoning last week, Gesicki has seen an increase in snap count week after week, now seeing over 83% of the snaps after only seeing 33% week 1.  Gesicki is going to be a stud in this league and it seems the Dolphins have figured that out and are looking to get him more invovled week after week (DO THE SAME WITH KENYAN DRAKE GOSH DARNIT!)

 

This is the play that is going to sink mine and your lineups this week.  I have to throw out there that I don’t think you can play Gesicki on Fanduel but at 2.6k on Draftkings I just can’t resist.  Gesicki finally got involved in the Dolphins offense last week catching all three of his targets. Gesicki is an absolute freak as you can check out his player profiler for yourself which compares him to Vernon Davis.

This kid is going to be an absolute beast as soon as the Dolphins start utilizing him more.  After seeing his targets trend in the right direction he can easily pay off a 2.6k salary on 4-5 targets this week.  LOCK him in on Draftkings at 1% owned from a pure talent perspective.  The opportunity for Gesicki will spike and then everyone in the DFS community will be playing this man. Stay ahead of the curve.

 

 

 

I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM 

 

 

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter ?

 

*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL.  MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S.  TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *

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