Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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High Tier: Josh Allen ($6500 – DK ) – The Bills implied total is massive yet no one is touching this game because the Redskins are involved and the overall game total is extremely low. While I am not one for stacking up a game with an over/under below 40, I do think the Bills side of the ball holds a ton of value that will be overlooked because of the projected game total. While I likely won’t be pairing Allen with two pass-catchers in single entry/3-max tournaments, it makes a lot of sense to do in a large field tourney like the milli-maker.
Allen has the type of upside to break the slate and if the Redskins are able to keep this game competitive, we could see one of those slate breaking scores from Allen at less than 5% owned. We saw how good he is with John Brown on this team, another receiver who’s going completely over-looked. If you really think Frank Gore is finding the end zone multiple times here, I recommend avoiding the game. However, I’m calling Allen to find paydirt at least three times come Sunday.
Mid Tier: Carson Wentz ($5800 – DK ) – Narrative street with the black unis coming out? Maybe. This team is close to full strength on offense and I believe we have not seen anything close to a ceiling game from this team. Wentz has a multitude of weapons at his disposal and Miles Sanders has emerged as a major threat in the passing game which just solidifies Wentz’s floor/ceiling as the Eagles look to run the ball less and less down the stretch.
There are a ton of projected values from this team in terms of pass-catchers which makes it too easy to get a Wentz/pass-catcher/pass-catcher stack going. Somehow this stack is going to come in less than 1% owned. It will be one of the most contrarian stacks on the slate. (Wentz himself currently has 0.8% projected ownership)
Low Tier: Matt Moore ($4800 – DK ) – This price is just too good. I am a major believer in Andy Ried and his ability to turn Patrick Mahomes (a great QB) into the best QB of all time. I also believe that he can turn Matt Moore, into a serviceable QB for the Chiefs. Although nobody is going to want to play a baseball player at QB this week, he is coming in at 0.1% owned (yes you read that right), and will be throwing the ball to Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce in an offense orchestrated by one of the greatest football minds the game has ever seen.
I think Matt Moore surprises the NFL community this weekend throwing for over 300 yards with multiple TDs. I do think they will play it safe in the RZ but I won’t be surprised to see the Chiefs let Moore sling it this week between the 20s.
Deep Sleeper: Phillip Rivers
High Tier: LeVeon Bell ($7,700 – DK ) – I won’t have a ton of Bell this week but will likely be close to equal with the field. If you’re paying up at RB you should just stick to the guys guaranteed volume in games where their team is implied a lot of points. Chubb/McCaffery/Carson/etc will all be chalk but worth it.
Squeaky wheel narrative at play here where Bell has complained about the number of touches he’s been getting. We’ll see if he falls in that 22-25 touch range this week in which case he will become a fantastic GPP play. Keep an eye on this situation.
Mid-Tier: Melvin Gordon ($5,000 – DK ) – This is one of the strangest situations of the week where Melvin Gordon is in a split backfield with Austin Ekeler. It has become more and more apparent though that Ekeler is the primary receiving back while Gordon the primary running back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ekeler in the slot more this week as the Chargers desperately try something different. At this point, what they’ve been doing hasn’t been working so don’t be surprised to see them feed Melvin Gordon this week and let him do his thing. 5k is absurd for the type of upside he holds.
Low Tier: Jaylen Samuels ($4,000 – DK )- This play is obviously going to be a lot chalkier now that James Conner got ruled out but he’s an absolute lock for me this week. At 4k, I’m going to have 100% in 150 lineups. That should be enough analysis for you to get on this play in the majority of your DFS lineups.
Deep Sleeper: Adrian Peterson
High Tier: Davante Adams ($7,100 – DK ) – The Packers would not be bringing Adams back if he wasn’t 100%. People are always down on a receiver coming back from injury and the ownership projections this week show that Week 9 will be no different as Adams is projected under 7% owned. He is a massive RZ threat and potentially one of the best receivers in the league. His team is projected to score nearly four touchdowns on Sunday and you can almost guarantee Adams will catch one of them if this game goes according to Vegas’s script.
The ownership projection here is just so absurd that I am close to 75% exposure in my GPP lineups this weekend. I’ll be monitoring his health going into the game closely but it looks like he is all systems go.
Mid Tier: DJ Moore ($4,800 – DK ) – The price here is the issue. DJ Moore has gotten 8/10/9 targets in the past three weeks. The volume is there. Kyle Allen is arguably a better QB than Cam Newton in terms of accuracy and throwing the football. Why is DJ Moore under 5K? It just doesn’t make sense. The lack of touchdowns has killed Moore’s value this season but that is likely to change with some regression as TD’s are an extremely volatile stat not very predictive of WR skill (see Julio Jones). I’d be fine rolling DJ Moore out in cash games this week but easily see a game in which you NEED to have him to even compete this weekend.
Low-Tier: Cole Beasley ($4,100 DK ) – I mentioned in a few different formats of content my interest in the Bills this week. While I will have a lot of John Brown, Cole Beasley eats up a lot less salary and has shown he actually does have a millionaire-maker type ceiling on this team. With touchdowns in back to back games and multiple games with 10+ targets this season, I see no reason why Beasley can’t hit the GPP value we need at 4.1k to put us in contention for winning tournaments. He’s a safer pair with Allen if you are playing smaller field contests.
Deep Sleeper: Jarvis Landry
Travis Kelce ($6,900 DK ) – I mentioned how I am very intrigued by the Chiefs this week and Matt Moore. My primary pairing with Moore is going to be Travis Kelce. Kelce is overpriced so nobody is going to play him (especially when you can get down to Waller for $600 less). Kelce, however, has multi-TD upside and should be a safety net for Matt Moore if the inexperienced QB gets nervous looking too far downfield to the speedy Tyreek Hill or Sammy Watkins. Kelce is going to be the primary red-zone look and should easily hit double-digit targets in this game based on my adjusted projections. He’ll be owned becaue of his name brand, but I don’t expect anything over 5-6% with the currently projected ownership levels on Waller.
Deep Sleeper: Jack Doyle
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter