Last week saw us go 2-0 in this space after our third bet was voided in the wake of Carlos Hyde being shipped to Jacksonville.
We’re off to a red-hot start on the week, with a perfect 4-0 card on Thursday Night Football.
Where to find H2H Props on MyBookie
Step 1: Click Props Builder
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Kirk Cousins > Ben Roethlisberger, Completions
1.4 Units to Win 1 Unit
This looks like a phenomenal value, based on both what we’ve seen form them so far, as well as their respective match ups this weekend.
- Cousins is averaging 30 completions per game in a seven-game stretch where the Vikings have attempted 43 passes per outing, fifth most in the league.
- Roethlisberger passes slightly less often with an average of 28.3 completions.
We have good reason to believe that it’s Cousins who will be the busier QB on Sunday. He takes on the Saints under the dome in New Orleans. Not only does this project to be a shootout, but the Saints allow the 11th-most completions against with an average of 24.5.
It’s not hard to see why — New Orleans plays stout run defense and their offense pushes opponents to be aggressive in a bid to keep up.
Roethlisberger faces Cleveland, which has allowed almost completions to opposing QBs at almost the exact same rate (24.9). However, when these two teams faced off in Week 1, Roethlisberger completed just 23 passes, his second-lowest total of the season.
All things being equal, it’s a coin flip, but the matchup gives Cousins a solid edge.
James Conner > Saquon Barkley, Carries
1.5 Units to Win 1.23 Units
Speaking of rematches, Conner was a very busy man the last time these two teams met.
Look, I know we installed a “No Fading Saquon” rule after he destroyed the Eagles in Week 6, but this is different.
Never bet against Saquon Barkley. pic.twitter.com/bHR806Z9xZ
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) October 12, 2018
That rule only applies to efficiency, not volume.While the electric rookie is fourth in rushing yards, he ranks just eighth in raw rush attempts, and even lower by per-game numbers.
His 14 average carries is just the 14th-most among all backs. To put in in perspective — that’s one fewer carry per game than Jordan Howard.
The matchup? About as bad as it gets for Barkley — Washington has surrendered just 97 carries, less than any team in the league.
James Connor, meanwhile, is clicking along 21.7 carries per game, a full 55 percent more than Barkley.
In that Week 1 clash with Cleveland, Conner was handed the rock 31 times — that’s the second-highest carry total recorded by any RB in a game this year.
Jarvis Landry > Demaryius Thomas, Receiving Yards
There are all sorts of players to in a head-to-head against Thomas, who appears overvalued this week.
Here are some other options to pit against Thomas:
- Golden Tate: -112
- Kenny Golladay: -112
- Tyler Boyd: -149
- Jarvis Landry: -164
- Jordy Nelson: -106
I’ll like Landry as he sees the most targets of the bunch and already put up 106 yards on 15 targets against the Steelers this year.
As for Thomas, he’s historically been invisible against KC. Starting with their most recent Week 4 meeting, the Denver wideout has posted receiving lines of 24, 57, 66, 20, and 60 against the Chiefs.
On the season, he’s gone for 63 yards or less in six of seven starts, and he hasn’t shown enough to be given this kind of credit, even if the Broncos are in comeback mode against the powerful Chiefs.