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Record: 11-12 +3.5 units
#16 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama (-24.5) (-110)
As an Alabama fan, when I have the opportunity to talk about the Crimson Tide I am going to. Last week if you listened to the podcast, What’s the Spread, I made my stance on the rather large spread against LSU clear. Bama will cover. Despite the many handicappers telling you to take the points with Mississippi State, I am telling you… Bama will cover. Mississippi State is coming into this game with a stout defense. Ranking 7th in total pass defense and 2nd in scoring defense. The Bulldog offense powered by QB Nick Fitzgerald will have a tough task going into Bryant-Denny Stadium and keeping this game close. The Bulldogs have struggled to cover in games in Alabama in the past few years. They are 1-5 in their last 6 games at Bryant-Denny. 25 points are certainly a lot of points for a matchup between two ranked teams. But over the past few weeks we have learned that this Alabama offense is special. Ranking 1st in the country in points per game at 51.33, they are lethal. Led by Heisman frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa, the Crimson Tide should have no problem covering. On top of having a QB who has thrown for 2,361 yards and 27 TDs; Alabama can back it up on the defensive end as well. Not far off Mississippi State’s 12.33 points allowed per game, the Tide’s defense only allows 14.11 points per game. If the big point spread here scares you, feel free to fade this game. But with Alabama’s high octane offense and lockdown defense, they should not have a problem covering against the Bulldogs.
Bet 1 unit on Alabama -24.5 to win 0.8 units (-110)
#10 Ohio State (-4) at #18 Michigan State (-105)
Betting on the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road right now to the casual sports bettor might seem like a risky play. They see trends like, Ohio State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games, and they quickly lay bets on the other team. Do not let that trend scare you away. 3 out of those 5 failed covers were spreads that were far too large. The Buckeyes have in fact been struggling to stop anyone, but this Michigan State offense has been struggling itself. Towards the end of last year one Brian Lewerke looked as if 2018 would be his year. That is not the case. The junior QB has struggled so fans and alumni have questioned if he should be benched for promising backup Rocky Lombardi. On the other side of the ball, the offense for the Buckeyes is dynamic and explosive. Running back duo Mike Weber and JK Dobbins will contribute on the ground against a tough run defense. While Heisman hopeful Dwayne Haskins should have his way with the Michigan State pass defense; which ranks 111th in the country. Haskins has thrown for 3,053 yards and is tied for the lead with 32 TD on the season. 4 points is one of the more favorable lines the Buckeyes have seen since they failed to cover against Penn St where the line was 3.5. Feel confident in betting Ohio St -4, the last 7 games against Michigan St the Buckeyes are 7-2.
Bet 4 units on Ohio State -4 to win 3.81 units (-105)
#24 Auburn at #5 Georgia (-14) (-115)
Last year the Auburn Tigers shocked the world by knocking off both Georgia and Alabama towards the end of the season. Although the Tigers are ranked 24th in the nation, this year has been a bit of a disappointment for the Tigers. Especially after Auburn started the season with a win against Washington. The loss of Kerryon Johnson has proved to be detrimental to the success of not only the offense but to the progression of Jared Stidham. The junior QB has struggled to find the endzone this season only throwing for 10 total TD. Georgia, playing their fourth ranked opponent in a row, seem to be coming into their own. The Bulldogs have covered in 3 out of the last 4 games they played with double digit wins against Kentucky and Florida. Georgia is leading the SEC in rush yards per game and the two headed monster looks to be the difference. In the game against Kentucky both D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield rushed for over 100 yards and found the endzone. Not only are the Bulldogs very good at home, covering in their last 5 home games. But they are very good at home against the Tigers, covering in their last 5. The key for this week is to not over think it. Look for the Bulldogs to win and cover against the Auburn Tigers.
Bet 2 units on Georgia -14 to win 1.71 units (-115)
Parlay 1 unit on Kentucky ML, Texas ML, Oregon +5 to win 4.09 units (+409)